Hi all,
Inside today's piece you'll find a preview of Saturday's Great St Wilfrid Handicap. Plus, there's more thoughts on affordability checks and restrictions.
Affordability and Restrictions
It’s a subject that just won’t go away. This week the Racing Post has been bringing out the ‘great and good’ in the sport to fight affordability checks.
The latest being owner being Carl Hinchy.
Of course, the Racing Post and indeed ITV Racing, Sky Sports Racing & Racing TV were all missing in action when lifelong supporters were being restricted and had their accounts closed by the bookmakers (gaming corporations).
They didn’t seem to care then about the effect on racing. Yet now with the sport staring into the abyss the panic has set in.
The racing industry made a big mistake when they sided with the gaming corporations over their long standing fans.
These corporations care nothing about the sport. Why should when there are huge profits to be plundered in other jurisdictions.
The corporations don’t want to be involved in betting where the odds change. Online casinos on the other hand are a licence to print money because they get to set the odds and print the results themselves.
Think about this for a minute bookmaker’s banning customers who win or just beat the odds. Yet being allowed to rinse losers for years.
They succeeded in turning betting on horses into a no winning allowed activity. Something had to give it was an unsustainable situation.
One leading online bookmaker can restrict me to a £1.75 bet on the horses but at the same time allow me to spaff £200 on their slots. When that’s allowed to happen something’s gone wrong, and it needs dealing with.
Egged on by the Daily Mail and its calls that “something must be done” about problem gambling and the government’s hand was forced.
Who’s to blame?
The guilty parties are of course the bookmakers but also various governments, and the BHA.
Government’s stood by whilst the bookmakers were banning or restricting people who might win and allowed them to take advantage of addicts and enable criminals to clean money.
The government should have made it a condition of a bookmakers licence that they had to provide a minimum bet liability. They didn’t because the corporations lobby power was too strong, and punters have no voice.
Punters got no help from the UK Gambling Commission (UKGC) either The UKGC whose remit as a regulator is to create a ‘fair’ market for punters has failed miserably in its duty as a regulator.
As I have said last week it’s not the fault of too much government regulation, there’s been too little of it.
Onto the BHA. The BHA should have put distance between themselves and the corporations as soon as they knew their fans were being alienated by the latter.
A BHA with vision and backbone would have stopped bookmakers from using horse racing data and indeed betting on the product all together. Yes, it’s the sports product and the bookmakers don’t have any right to use it.
The BHA should have bought Betdaq and turned into the sports exchange. Working for the benefit of its participants and profits going to the sport and not to the likes of Denise Coates.
No, instead they took the easy path and got into bed with the bookmakers, and they should pay a heavy price for that. Sadly, they won’t. The proof of income will be watered down. Racing will think its dodged a bullet, the bookmakers will smile, and the only losers will be punters who will continue to face restrictions if they are seen to be beating the books.
Looking Ahead To The Weekend – Part 1
Like last weekend it’s a quiet one quality wise. The Group 2 Hungerford Stakes (3.35) at Newbury is Saturday’s feature race. The big betting race on Saturday is at Ripon and the Great St Wilfrid Handicap (3:15).
Across the Irish Sea there’s Group action at the Curragh where the highlights are the Group 2 Futurity Stakes (3:27) and Group 2 Debutante Stakes (4:00).
ITV4 are covering four races from Newbury as well as two from Ripon and one from Newmarket on Saturday.
Ripon: Great St Wilfrid Handicap
The Great St Wilfrid Handicap is Ripon’s biggest race of the season. Here are a few race trends.
Five of the last seven winners of the race were sent off 10/1 & bigger. However, considering the last 15 renewals, favourites have done well with 6 winners from 14 bets 43% +20, 8 placed 57%.
Looking at the effect of the draw. Stalls 1 to 5are 1 winner from 70 bets -62, 14 placed since 2008. Those drawn in stalls 6 to 13 have produced 9 winners from 114 bets +5.5, 28 placed.
Five-year-old’s are the best performing age group with 8 winners from 72 bets +26.5, 23 placed.
The Official Rating’s sweetspot seems to be horses rated 94 to 100 – 11 winners from 142 bets -7, 33 placed. Those horses rated 101+ are 0 winners from 49 bets, 7 placed.
Jockey’s with 9% or less strike rate in the previous 14 days are 1 winner from 113 bets – 107, 18 placed.
It’s not a race I would consider a bet in at this stage without knowing the draw and prevailing underfoot conditions.
Contenders:
Here are a few on my initial shortlist.
Anthem National is officially rated 105 but he’s of interest on debut for Philip Kirby. The 4-year-old posted a career best last time when a 1 ¼ length 2nd of 10 to Commanche Falls in a Listed race at the Curragh last month.
Many A Star well beaten on his first two starts this season. But was back to form when a 1 ¼ length 3rd of 11 to Monsieur Kodi at Goodwood last time. Below his last winning mark, he’s well treated and if he gets good or quicker ground is interesting.
Ingra Tor looked a sprinter on the upgrade when winning at Newmarket last April. He didn’t really build on that on subsequent starts last season. However, he seemed in much better heart when a ¾ length 2nd of 12 at Kempton April. We haven’t seen him for 131 days. But the yard can ready one off a lay off and he’s high on my shortlist.
Brazen Bolt looked to be close to a return to winning ways when a neck 2nd of 10 at Doncaster two starts back but was below par on soft ground over 7f last time. Needs good or quicker ground and shouldn’t be far away if gets his favoured underfoot conditions.
Dream For Gold looks an improving 3-year-old handicap sprinter. He’s finished runner-up on his last two starts and it was a career best effort last time when a neck 2nd of 11 at Newmarket three weeks ago. Up 5lb for last time but remains on a winnable mark taking on older rivals for the first time.
On soft ground you couldn’t rule out recent Goodwood winner Monsieur Kodi or previous C&D winner Lakota Blue.
Wednesday Preview
There’s Listed action at Salisbury this afternoon with the Stonehenge Stakes (3.20) and Upavon Fillies' Stakes (4.30).
Charlie Appleby has saddled the winner of the Stonehenge Stakes for the last two years. He bids for the hat trick with Arabian Crown. The son of Dubawi got of the mark at the second attempt when winning at Sandown maiden (7f) 20 days ago. A mile+ should suit the colt and he’s got a favourites chance.
Arabic Legend overcome greenness to win a Newmarket maiden last month. He looked a useful prospect at Newmarket and seems the type to go onto much better things. In what looks an interesting renewal he would be the selection.
Good luck with your Wednesday bets.
John
Well said, John, thank you for speaking for the majority of us who have been lifelong followers of the sport and like to back a winner. Though, I fear it is too late as the relationships between ‘racing’ and the corps are so well entrenched and there is no outside agency willing to intervene.
Agree with all your comments .personally when a company who call themselves the top online site (sky) and then restrict you to 20p on a 50/1 shot should be forced to set a minimum amount of say £5/10 .All the companies still calling themselves bookmakers not amusement arcade operators -where most of the problem gamblers are to be found should be regulated to even more controls on F O B T gambling and as you say should be licenced to lay a decent minimum bet
Job Vacancy:
Bookies Runner.
Discretion required.
Well said John, it’s absolutely ridiculous now how these so called “bookmakers” can behave.
I’ve been either banned or else heavily restricted by every single one of the main online bookmakers(15+), being offered to put 0.29 on a 20/1 shot and the likes.
It’s a sham industry now where winners are not welcome and I agree Governments, BHA, etc are to blame for allowing them to do it