Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece you can read my thoughts on two of the big races on day one of York’s Ebor Festival.
York Ebor Festival – Day 1
The Juddmonte International Stakes (3.35) is the highlight on day one of the Ebor Festival at York. Whilst the big two in the ante post betting Paddington and Mostahdaf have stood their ground. It’s a pitifully small turn out for a £1 million contest.
The Sky Bet Great Voltigeur Stakes (3.00) is normally considered a pointer for next month’s St Leger. Gregory the ante post favourite for the final British Classic takes on four rivals in the Group 2 contest.
The final Group race on day one is the Group 3 Acomb Stakes (2:25). Six have been declared for this juvenile contest which 12 months ago was won by 2.000 Guineas winner Chaldean.
Despite the small fields for the pattern races my enthusiasm for the four days remains. Most of my bets are in the handicap races anyway and I don’t think those races will lack runners. I’m going to be at York, in person, either Thursday or Friday. I will leave a decision on which day to attend when I have seen the race line-up’s.
Due to other commitments, I will be covering one race each day for the column. However, as a bit of a bonus I have managed to squeeze in two today.
2:25 – Acomb Stakes – 7f
I thought there was going to be a good bet in this race in the shape of Ballymount Boy. The colt had finished a 1 length runner-up to Vandeek, Sunday’s Prix Morny winner, in a Group 2 at Goodwood last time. That form is much stronger now than it looked at the time and although he faces five unexposed rivals he should win if reproducing his Goodwood performance Albeit there won’t be any of the 4/1 that was available prior to final declarations.
All five of Ballymount Boy’s rivals won last time out. Cogitate won on racecourse debut at Newbury last month. He’s trained by Charlie Hills who saddled the winner of the race in 2014 & 2018.
Aidan O’Brien saddles Edwardian who won at Naas last time. He looks one of the Ballydoyle lesser lights but he’s open to further improvement and should appreciate the better ground. Trainer is 0 winners from 11 runners, 1 placed in the race since 2010.
Hot Fuss got off the mark when comfortably seeing off seven rivals at Salisbury (soft) 37 days ago. He’s going to be the outsider of the six but is going the right way and might well be a bit of value on the day.
3:35 – Juddmonte International Stakes – 1m 2 ½ f
Paddington beat three rivals to win the Coral Eclipse two starts back and looks set for another 1m 2f Group 1 race with little pace. It’s hard to see any of his three rivals going out to make the pace so it looks like Ryan Moore will be able to dictate things from the front as he did in the Sussex Stakes.
Mostahdaf will be ridden to make use of his turn of foot. The 5-year-old improved to win the Group 1 Prince Of Wales's Stakes at Royal Ascot last time and a subsequent 63 day layoff is a plus as he’s 6 from 6 when returning from a 58+ day absence. The drier the ground the better his chance and although Paddington looks special, I wouldn’t be quick to rule him out.
Mostahdaf’s stablemate Nashwa is an interesting addition to the line-up. Held-up in slowly run Nassau Stakes last time there must be a worry that she won’t settle.
The Foxes won the Dante over C&D in May before failing to stay 1m 4f in the Derby. He goes well here but you must think he’ll need both Paddington and Mostahdaf to underperform to win.
International Stakes Verdict:
A tactical race is in the offing and the result will be decided by which jockey gets them right. Ryan Moore looks like he will pace the pace on favourite Paddington and if he gets the fractions right will be tough to beat. Mostahdaf needs good or quicker but on his day, he’s got the best turn of foot in the race and if can reproduce his Royal Ascot performance can get the better of Paddington.
Wednesday Verdict:
There are two qualifiers from the John & Thady Gosden micro angle that I mentioned in Tuesday’s column – Gregory (3:00) & Mostahdaf (3:35). At evens or better Gregory looks the most likely winner of the pair. However, I wouldn’t put anyone off a cheeky Gosden/Dettori double.
Good luck with your Wednesday bets.
John