Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece I’m looking ahead to Saturday’s big betting race the Ayr Gold Cup. Plus, you’ll find a few pointers for the first day of Ayr’s Western Meeting.
Ayr Gold Cup
The going at Ayr was good on Tuesday morning but there is a fair amount rain forecast over the next few days. It’s likely there will be some ease, maybe more, in the ground on Saturday for Gold Cup Day.
The Ayr Gold Cup is one of the biggest betting races of the flat season and is Europe’s most valuable sprint handicap.
Run over 6f this annual cavalry charge always attracts a maximum field and often provides a thrilling finish.
There’s also consolation race for those who do not make it into the big race, the Ayr Silver Cup is run on the day whilst on the Friday there the Ayr Bronze Cup for those horses who miss the cut for the Silver Cup.
Trends
For trends fans the race is a good one. Taking out the 2017 renewal which was run at Haydock due to a waterlogged track at Ayr. Since 2008 the 14 renewals have produced 15 winners due to a dead heat in 2018. That’s 15 winners from 353 runners, 56 placed.
All 15 winners shared the following three traits.
Stalls: 7 & higher
Looking at the draw stalls 1 to 7 are – 0 winners from 96 runners, 11 placed. Just three winners have come out of single figure draw, all three coming out of stall 8. The latest of them Brando in 2016.
Odds SP: 28/1 or less
Despite the big field, horses returned 33/1 & higher are – 0 winners from 100 runners. 4 placed.
Wins At The track: 1+
Previous course winners are – 0 winners from 59 runners, 7 placed.
Taking those stats into consideration that’s – 15 winners from 150 runners +52.5, 37 placed.
Since 2008 Kevin Ryan is the winning most trainer with four successes. The latest of his winners coming in 2021 with Bielsa.
Contenders:
Granted we don’t know the draw, or which 25 horses will get into the race but here’s my early shortlist.
Orazio
Orazio has been a beaten favouritefor both the Wokingham Handicap at Royal Ascot and Goodwood’s Stewards Cup. Can he make it third time lucky? He was very disanointing in the later race but that was on heavy ground. He remains capable of better than he’s been able to show on his last two starts could well go off favourite once more.
Summerghand
Last year’s winner dead heated at York two starts back and show he remained in form when a 3 ¼ length 4th of 22 in a valuable handicap at the Curragh last time. He didn’t get the clearest of runs 1f out that day and made his effort nearer to the unfavoured far side. The 9-year-old is 5lb higher than 12 months ago and does fail the previous course winner trend. That said I can see him getting into the money on good or quicker ground.
Juan Les Pins
Juan Les Pins was a 1 ½ length 3rd of 24 to Summerghand in last year’s race. Although he’s 14lb higher this time around the 6-year-old has improved since last year and finished a 1 ¼ length 3rd of 27 in the Wokingham at Royal Ascot, from 2lb lower. The 6-year-old produced a career best last time when ¾ length 2nd of 8 to Commanche Falls in a York Listed race 13 days ago. Soft ground would be a concern as his best form has come on a sound surface but that apart he’s my idea of the winner. Trainer Michael Appleby won the Portland Handicap at Doncaster last Saturday.
Aleezdancer
Aleezdancer, trained by Kevin Ryan, needs soft ground to be at his best. He’s just higher than when winning at Doncaster on the opening weekend of the season and was back to form when a 3 length 5th of 27 in Stewards' Cup at Goodwood last time. He was best of the smaller group that raced far side that day. I have had the 4-year-old in mind for this race all season and if gets soft ground he could give the trainer a sixth success in the race.
Probe
Was in great form in the spring winning a valuable sprint handicap at Newmarket in May. Not at the same level form on subsequent runs on quick ground and could never get competitive in the Bunbury Cup (7f) in July. This is his trip and provided there is some ease in the ground I can see the 4-year-old going close in a strongly run race that will suit.
Ayr Gold Cup Verdict:
It’s not a race I will be betting on until I know the final field, the draw, and the going. I could well add to my initial shortlist before post time. Juan Les Pins was my idea of the winner earlier in the week but may want good ground. Orazio remains with potential and if hegets good to soft ground he’s on winnable mark to land a valuable pot like this. Aleezdancer has been backed in recent days and you can see why if he gets soft ground. The return to an easy surface will suit Probe who has solid enough each way claims on his useful spring form with William Hill a tempting 25/1.
Thursday Preview
The first day of Ayr's Gold Cup meeting gets under way this afternoon and there’s another day of racing at the Listowel “Harvest” Festival.
Virgin Bet sponsored Kilkerran Handicap (3:00) with £30,000 in guaranteed prize money is the headline race. Although the most valuable race on Thursday is over at Listowel where the Listowel Printing Premier Handicap (4:35) is the headlines an eight race card.
There are some decent sized fields on offer at Ayr this afternoon. There was plenty of heavy rain forecast for Ayr on Wednesday. However, at the time of writing I’m not sure how its affected the going.
Ayr
3:00 – Virgin Bet Best Odds Daily Kilkerran Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 2f
Popular 10-year-old Euchen Glen ran poorly at Haydock last time but would respecting if reproducing his 2 ¼ length 4th of 22 to Absurde in the Ebor. Yet to race at 1m 2f this season but he did finish runner-up to Royal Champion in the Listed Doonside Cup over C&D here 12 months ago.
Mr Alan was a nose runner-up in last year’s race, from 5lb lower. A winner on soft ground last October. He makes a belated seasonal reappearance here but if he’s ready to roll after his lay off won’t be far away at the finish.
What’s The Story won over C&D last August, from 2lb higher. And was only beaten a neck in a mile handicap at this meeting 12 months ago. Has run well on all four starts since joining Richard Fahey this summer. Not the easiest to win with but you can see him getting into the money once again.
Rest of the Ayr card
2:25 – With 21 runners this Class 5 handicap is clearly the most competitive race on today’s card. Ben Macdui won at Newcastle two starts back and showed he remains in form when an unlucky beck 3rd of 12 at Beverley (good to firm) 19 days ago. With a clear run inside the furlong, he would likely to have won last time. Likely to face contrasting ground today but handicapped to go close.
Triple Jaye and Refuge were separated by a ½ length when first and second in this corresponding race last year. Refuge has won twice this season and Triple Jaye has mostly been out of form this year which means he’s now 9lb better off. All five of Triple Jaye’s career wins have come in August & September and he’s temptingly weighted, albeit soft ground would be an unknown. Refuge has won on easier surface in the past which brings him into the mix.
4:10 – Hale End has solid claims in this mile handicap. A winner at Hamilton (good) in June. He posted close to a career best when a short head 2nd of 10 at Beverley (soft) 25 days ago. He's been nudged up 1lb for his latest effort but must have a good chance of going one place better.
5:17 – Cassy O’s losing run is startingto mount up but he’s now 17lb below last year’s winning mark. Needs to bounce back from a poor run at Thirsk 47 days ago but if he does, he’s a well-treated. Hoots Toots won a Thirsk over the distance on seasonal return in April (soft). Nowhere near that level of form on four subsequent starts. He’s down to his last winning mark though and hopes are pinned on a 53 day break having freshened him up.
Thursday Selection:
Ayr
4:10 – Hale End – 7/2.
Good luck with your Thursday bets.
John