Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece you can read my thoughts on the best of last week’s action.
Ayr’s Western Meeting Review
Let’s get this out of the way first. Ayr’s three day Western Meeting doesn’t contain the highest quality of racing seen during the flat season. However, its competitive enough and plays host to the most valuable sprint handicap of the season.
There were two Listed races on Friday’s Ayr card.
Beautiful Diamond took advantage of a drop in class and the drop back to 5f to win the Listed Harry Rosebery Stakes. A nice change of gear 1f won her the race and she was to still able to hold of the challenge of Purosangue. The front two pulled clear of the rest so the form is solid enough. Her trainer Karl Burke won this with a subsequent Group 1 winner in Quiet Reflection in 2015 and Bright Diamond should be able to hold her own in Group sprints as a 3-year-old.
Pink Crystal had a finished a ¾ length runner-up in the Listed Arran Scottish Sprint 12 month ago. Well, she went one place better in this year’s race. Given her hold up style the strong pace suited her and she was at her strongest at the finish. Marine Wave who I had fancied to win on quicker ground maintained her improvement and ran well to finish a 1 ½ length third.
Ayr Gold Cup Day
The highlight of Saturday’s card was of course the Ayr Gold Cup, but the undercard also included the only Group race run in Scotland.
The Group 3 Firth Of Clyde Stakes (6f) went the way of Irish challenger Prime Art. The daughter of Churchill had got off the mark at the third attempt when landing a Naas maiden 9 days previously. She maintained her recent improvement with a decisive success here.
Well on top at the finish she remains a work in progress and should be able to win more races as a 3-year-old.
Runner-up Great Generation came from further back than the winner and had to be switched for a run 2f out. That said she was the second best on the day and probably wouldn’t have won even with a clear run. An extra furlong will suit her going forward and she could be capable of bit better.
Royal Rhyme
Royal Rhyme a big improver when winning a Goodwood handicap on his previous start. He took the step up into pattern company in his stride to win the Listed Doonside Cup. This was a smart performance from a colt who’s on a sharp upward curve and is well suited to plenty of ease in the ground. He’s a got a Group 1 Champion Stakes entry which doesn’t look fanciful. Especially as there’s a good chance that he will get his favoured soft ground at Ascot next month.
Draw bias at play in both the Silver & Gold Cup’s
If you were on a horse drawn stands side you had no chance in either of the sprint handicaps.
Wobwobwob landed a bit of a touch to win the Ayr Silver Cup. The slightly easier ground and a very strong pace suited the 5-year-old. He’s unexposed over 6f and connections will no doubt be aiming him at next year’s Gold Cup.
The Ayr Gold Cup was great result for Northern racing with Significantly mowing down Ramazan close home.
Significantly could be called the winner 1f out he was travelling that well. However, he got caught behind horses and had to be switched right to win his race. He would have been a very unlucky loser if he hadn’t got up. A short head runner-up in the Portland Handicap just seven days previously. I thought 6f on soft ground would stretch the winners stamina, but he got a lovely tow into the race and the ground on times wasn’t as slow as I feared.
Normally I have three picks in a race like the Ayr Gold Cup. However, I have been cutting down on my bets. If had gone with three I would have put up Significantly in the three but that’s all after timing. In the end I just went with the one in Orazio but as the Silver Cup showed he had little chance from stall 23. In the circumstance you can mark up the performance of Rohaan who came from stall 25 to finish a running on 7th.
“It’s like shooting fish in a barrel.”
The bookies were the real winners of both the Gold & Silver Cups. They were betting to an overround of 139% in the former and 136% in the latter. Those overrounds are an utter disgrace. Add in 1/5 the odds for each way punters in these big handicaps and for the bookies.
Paddy’s Super Saturday
Paddy Twomey had a great Saturday at the Curragh landing a big race juvenile double. First Deepone held of a trio of Aidan O’Brien runners to win the Group 2 Beresford Stakes.
I don’t think this was the strongest running of the Beresford Stakes with the three O’Brien colts not stable stars. That said the winner shouldn’t be underestimated next season as he’s bred to better as a 3-year-old over 1m 2f+.
One Look completed the Twomey double when winning the Goffs Million. The winner was making her racecourse debut in the most valuable juvenile race run in Europe which makes this a smart performance. The daughter of Gleneagles took it up 1f out and a produced a high class turn of foot to beat Lowther Stakes runner-up Cherry Blossom by six lengths.
It easy to get carried away with easy winners of these big sales races Mums Tipple anyone. But the winner beat a Group 2 runner-up comfortably, looks smart and has a big future.
One Look probably won’t run again this season, but she’s got an Irish 1,000 Guineas entry and is bred to appreciate a mile. The 1,000 Guineas will also come under serious consideration after this win and she’s as low as 10/1 for the Newmarket race.
Array Lands Mill Reef Stakes
The Andrew Balding trained colt Array won what looked a weak renewal of the Group 2 Mill Reef Stakes at Newbury on Saturday. The 7/4 favourite was the best horse on the day but just 1 ¼ length separated the first five home so the form looks suspect.
Array is going the right way, but this might prove to be the best performance that he ever produces if recent history of the race is any guide.
Given recent renewals of the race have hardly produced good winners. Indeed, I believe the last five winners have won just one subsequent race between them. The only shock is that the Mill Reef Stakes has maintained its Group 2 status.
Monday Preview:
There are six meetings across Britain & Ireland on Monday. And as some readers pointed out to me last week there’s just no need for so many meetings. I wouldn’t mind but 39 out of the 42 races are worth than less than £10,000 to the winner.
There’s good racing later in the week at Newmarket’s Cambridgeshire Meeting which gets underway on Thursday. Plenty of opportunities there to lose our money so It's not difficult to swerve today’s sport.
Good luck with your Monday bets.
John