Hi all,
Some fantastic racing to enjoy this weekend.
On Saturday it’s the final day of the Newmarket’s Cambridgeshire Meeting. The highlights of Saturday’s card are two Group 1 juvenile contests. The first of them is the Cheveley Park Stakes (2:25) for the filles. Followed 35 minutes later by the Middle Park Stakes (3:00) for the colts.
From a betting perspective the big betting race of the day is the bet365 Cambridgeshire (3:40). This valuable handicap run over 1m 1f has £200,000 in guaranteed prize money and is likely to attract a big field.
Arc Weekend
It's also the best weekend of racing across the Channel at Longchamp. Arc Weekend gets underway with two Group 1 races on Saturday. There’s even more Group 1 action on Sunday with highlight being Europe’s premier middle distance race the Qatar sponsored Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (3:05).
It’s too early to say for certain but although the ground is currently soft at Longchamp. Paris is set for mostly dry and hot weather in the lead up to the big race. The last four Arc’s have been run on heavy or very soft ground and you must go back to 2018 and Enable’s win for the last time the race was on good.
There’s a good chance if the rain stays away that we could see Arc Day run on some decent flat racing ground.
This year’s Arc looks an open looking contest albeit not a vintage renewal. It seems to be between the French 3-year-old form represented by Ace Impact and Feed The Flame against the older horses represented by the likes of Hukum and Westover.
If there is to be a superstar in the line-up it’s going to be Ace Impact. The colt won Qatar Prix du Jockey Club (French Derby) earlier in the season and although he’s got to prove his stamina for 1m 4f. If he stays, he could prove too good for his rivals.
Newmarket: bet365 Cambridgeshire – 1m 1f
The Cambridgeshire is a race I have completely lost my way with in recent seasons. Indeed, you must go as far back as Bronze Angel’s success in 2014 to find my last winning selection in the race.
Hope spring eternal that this year will see me land on the winner. Mind you I said that last year and the year before.
The weather looks set fair for the Cambridgeshire Meeting. The going was being described as good, good to firm in places at Newmarket so if the forecast proves correct, we could be looking at quick ground come Saturday’s race.
Looking at the ten year trends for the race
All the last ten winners of the race shared the following traits.
Age: 3yo to 6yo
Runs in Career: 26 or less.
Last Time SP Odds: 25/1 & under
Last Time Out Distance Beaten: Either won or were within 15 lengths of the winner.
Highest Class Run: Not Group 1
Four of the last ten winners were returned 25/1 to 50/1 including the last three winners 25/1, 40/1 x 2. So, if you fancy one at a fancy price I wouldn’t you off.
There are no strong trends regarding the draw but its worth noting those drawn in stalls 1 to 6 are 1 winner from 57 runners, 7 placed. And those drawn 30+ are 0 winners from 46 runners, 2 placed.
Cambridgeshire Trends Verdict:
Others may have more meaningful trends but for me this isn’t a particular strong trends race. You should be out off by a horse at big odds that’s for sure as the last three renewals have shown. Draw wise I will personally be swerving any horse drawn 1 to 3 and any drawn 30 or higher.
Could Greek Order be a Group horse in handicap?
Forty six were left in the race at Monday’s final confirmation stage. They include last year’s winner Majestic who is just 3lb higher than 12 months ago and will appreciate the drying ground.
I haven’t had a chance to look at the race in much depth yet. However, we do have a very strong ante post favourite in Greek Order.
Greek Order comes into the race seeking the hat trick after successes at Sandown & Newbury. He’s 10lb higher than for his Newbury win but had plenty in hand that day and given the 3-year-old has only had five career starts probably hasn’t reached his class ceiling. He stays 1m 2f which is no bad thing and big field and a strongly run will enable him to settle.
Given you probably need a horse that can run well off higher marks in the future you can see why Greek Order is strongly fancied.
Ryan stays loyal to Saga
Next in the ante post betting is last year’s third Dual Identity who bounced back to form when winning at Sandown earlier this month. His effort in last year’s race was a good one from stall six and he finished well clear of the group that raced far side.
Astro King and Oviedo were first and second in a York handicap (1m 2 ½ f) last time. There shouldn’t be too much between the pair at the revised weights. However, Oviedo strikes me as a horse who could be well suited to a race like the Cambridgeshire and as 3-year-old might have the more upside.
I had given a good mention for Liberty Lane after his recent Doncaster success. A 4lb penalty for his Doncaster win shouldn’t hold him back but quick ground would be more of an unknown for the 3-year-old.
As I said I haven’t looked at horses at bigger odds yet. However, it’s interesting the Ryan Moore stays loyal to the quirky but talented Saga. The Royal runner showed his effectiveness over C&D when a head 2nd of 17 in handicap back in May.
Wednesday Preview
Today’s Goodwood card is today’s stand out meeting quality wise with the highlight being the Listed Foundation Stakes (3:40). My Prospero third in last season’s Group 1 Champion Stakes takes a big drop in class here. On official ratings he has 8lb in hand of his nearest rival King Of Conquest and will be tough to beat on ground that he handles. King Of Conquest hails from the inform Charlie Appleby yard and can’t be discounted and his last win came on soft ground. Sierra Blanca showed useful form when trained by Aidan O’Brien. Ending his time at Ballydoyle with a win in a Naas maiden (heavy) last November. First start since joining Freddie Meade & Martyn Meade and has an each-way chance if ready to roll after his long absence.
The EBF £100,000 2YO Fillies' Series Final (4:15) is the most valuable race run today. Chic Colombine completed the hat trick when winning a Doncaster nursery (6 ½ f) 13 days ago. Today’s slightly longer trip looks a plus and she proved her effectiveness on soft ground last time. I’m not sure about the track. But I do know she’s got the physical scope to be the best of these long term. Local Arms won a soft ground Beverley novice 7 days ago. She's another capable of more improvement and must be respected from the Karl Burke yard.
Wednesday Selection:
Goodwood
4:50 – Albany has improved her RPR’s on each of her four starts. A winner of a Windsor novice (1m 2f) 51 days ago. She takes a big step up in trip on handicap debut but on pedigree could improve for it. Her dam won on soft ground and she by Lope De Vega so underfoot conditions shouldn’t faze the 3-year-old.
Good luck with your Wednesday bets.
John