Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece I’m looking forward to Saturday’s big race action by previewing Saturday’s Group 1 Sun Chariot Stakes and Ascot’s Howden Challenge Cup.
Looking Ahead To The Weekend
This weekend’s racing isn’t at the same level as Arc Weekend but its decent enough for this time in the season.
Newmarket’s Group 1 The Sun Chariot Stakes (3.15) is the weekend’s big race. Ascot has two Group 3’s on its Saturday card. However, the valuable Howden Challenge Cup (Handicap) is the big betting race.
Redcar’s most valuable race of the season the Listed William Hill Two Year Old Trophy takes place on Saturday. It’s one of the valuable sales races run during the season and has £85,065 on offer to the winner. There’s also big sales race at Newmarket which has £150,000 in guaranteed prize money.
Virgin Bet Sun Chariot Stakes – 1m
Just nine were left in the race at Monday’s final confirmation stage and one of them Coppice looks an unlikely runner. Top on Official Ratings is Inspiral who bids for a fifth Group 1 success. The filly bounced back to winning ways in the Prix Jacques le Marois last time and is likely to go off a short-priced favourite.
French challenger Mqse De Sevigne has won her last two starts both in Group 1 contests. She seems to be improving with racing but softer will be required if she’s to run I suspect.
Aidan O’Brien has left Meditate in the race. The 3-year-old hasn’t really built on her class juvenile form. However, she was a 1½ lengths second of 10 to Tahiyra in Irish 1000 Guineas at the Curragh in May and a 3 ½ length 4th of 12 to the same filly in the Group 1 Matron Stakes at Leopardstown last month. Quick ground suits and the first time blinkers she wore last time will likely be retained.
Just Beautiful returned from a 3 month layoff to finish a 1 ¾ length 3rd of 12 in the Matron Stakes. Like Meditate she needs a sound surface to be at her best. If she gets her favoured underfoot conditions, I think she looks the biggest rival to Inspiral.
Heredia has won her last two starts in Listed and Group 3 company. She takes a big step up in class here but looks worth her place in the line-up. Likely needs a decent gallop to chase and if she gets it, she could run a big race.
Sun Chariot Verdict:
Inspiral is a worthy ante post favourite, but she can throw in an odd stinker. If the rain arrives, I think Mqse De Sevigne can beat Inspiral but she will need soft in the ground description and maybe plenty of it to do so. If its as quick as it was last Saturday Just Beautiful will give the favourite a race. Heredia has each way claims in a strongly run race. She’ll need the fav to underperform to win but she’s going the right way and can’t be dismissed.
Ascot: Howden Challenge Cup (Heritage Handicap) -7f
Thirty we’re left in the weekend’s big betting race at Monday’s final confirmation stage. Although there’ll be a maximum field of 18 for this valuable handicap it will be competitive contest.
Looking at the last nine running’s of the race which contain 9 winners from 150 runners, 34 placed.
Horses with one win at the distance are 6 winners from 42 runners +5.08 12 placed.
Stalls 1 to 5 are 1 winner from 40 runners -35.67, 6 placed.
Highest Class run Group 1 or Group 2 – 1 winner from 58 runners -37, 10 placed.
Contenders:
I have had a decent look at this race, and there are eight on my shortlist.
The bookies have made Baradar the 7/1 favourite. The 5-year-old won the International Stakes (Handicap) over C&D two start back and followed up at Doncaster (6 ½ f) 22-days ago. He;s goes well on soft ground and a 5lb rise in the weights makes life tougher but he could defy it.
James Fanshawe has a couple of lively contenders in Fresh & Hickory among the entries. Fresh is a three time course winner, including two over C&D. He’s not been disgraced on his last two starts over 6f and can never be discounted here. Hickory was a ½ length 2nd of 25 to Baradar in the International Stakes (Handicap) two starts back and ran just as well when 3rd of 14 over C&D 28 days ago. Slightly easier ground will suit the 5-year-old as will better run race and he’s another very much in the mix.
Ramazan, a winner at Chepstow (7f) two starts back improved again when caught close home by Significantly in the Ayr Gold Cup. Off the same mark here would have to have place claims at the very least.
Vafortino won last season’s Victoria Cup over C&D and finished third in this year’s race. Ran Northern Express to a short head at York in July before a rare poor effort when 22nd of 25 to Baradar in the International Stakes. Something was likely amiss that day and he’s been given a 70 day break to freshen him up. He doesn’t want the ground too quick and is handily weighted if back to his best.
Can Escobar do it again?
David O'Meara won this 12 month ago with Escobar (20/1) and the 9-year-old will bid to win again from 13lb lower. Prior to winning 12 months ago Escobar ran over an inadequate 6f in the Ayr Gold Cup and he’s had the same prep this year. O’Meara looks to have a strong hand in race as he also has Blue For You, Orbaan, Pearle D’or, Rhoscolyn & Riot among the entries.
Orbaan is a previous C&D winner and although he has been at his best this season, he hinted at York last time that he’s back to down to a mark he can win off when all the cards fall right.
Pearle D’or won over C&D in July and posted a career best when winning a heavy ground handicap at Newbury 14 days ago. Has a 6lb penalty to carry for that success but a strongly run 7f will suit the 4-year-old. Up in class but going the right way and not easily discounted.
Verdict:
It’s set to be a mostly dry week, so that weather forecast may not suit the likes of Baradar, Vafortino and Hickory but it shouldn’t be too concerning for backers of Fresh and Ramazan.
Last year’s winner Escobar is to well handicapped to ignore and looks primed for a big run. The 25/1 available with Coral, Ladbrokes & William Hill provides plenty of each way value. However, it’s a race where I could easily end up going with another two or maybe even three selections. Stablemate Orbaan is lurking on dangerous mark and the 33/1 available with Bet365 & Paddy Power makes plenty of appeal.
Wednesday Preview
Some decent racing today and I have a few fancies at Kempton, Nottingham and Navan.
The race of the day is the 6f conditions stakes (London Sprint Series Qualifier) at Kempton (6:30) this evening.
Last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint winner Mischief Magic has been installed as early bird favourite. He needs to bounce back from a couple of lesser runs, albeit in Group company, in the spring. However, he’s been gelded since a poor run in the Commonwealth Cup and the Charlie Appleby yard is excellent form. If he’s close to the level of his Breeders Cup win he would be tough to beat but he’s got to be worth taking on at the prices.
The return to the synthetics will hopefully see a revival from Desert Cop. Both the 3-year-old’s career wins have come on the all-weather and his Kempton figures are 21. The win coming in a C&D maiden in February.
The other I like is Never Just A Dream. The colt is 3-3 on the all-weather (all on the tapeta) in Britain. He needs to bounce back from a couple of lesser runs on the dirt in the UAE earlier in the year. However, if he’s ready to roll after a 243 day break won’t be far away.
More Kempton pointers
7:00 – Surrey Noir has improved of late and had a bit in hand when winning over C&D last month. The 3-year-old has got handy low draw in stall 4 has a big chance even though he’s 7lb higher and up a notch in class. Elzaam Blue did best of those who came from the rear when a short head 2nd of 11 in a similar race over C&D 7-days ago. He might be better over a mile but if getting a decent pace to chase is a big player. Starlight Nation won at Leicester over the distance and bounced back from a poor run at Newbury and ten week break when a length 3rd of 11 at Ascot last time. That was a career best from the 3-year-old and he should be in the mix.
7:30 – Maid In Kentucky, a winner at Lingfield in March, is having her first start since disappointing over C&D 119 days ago. She’s surely better than she was able to show last time and is interesting in the first time tongue tie. Has a handy low draw for a prominent racer in a race which isn’t likely to be strongly run. Tiempo Star was only beaten a head here (7f) two starts back. But was below form when only 7th of 13 over C&D 90 days ago. Could easily bounce back to his best after a 90 day break albeit he’s drawn out wide.
Good luck with your Wednesday bets.
John