Hi all,
It’s a quiet enough Thursday which gives me an opportunity to do something a bit different for today’s column.
Inside today's main piece I’m looking at the subject of ‘true’ and ‘false’ favourites and my favourites checklist.
What is a true favourite?
The term false favourite has become widely used, but ultimately it means poor favourite. Looking at the favourite should be the linchpin when you analyse a race; e.g, Is the favourite a good bet or is it one you should be taking on?
How do you determine out what what is a ‘true’ and what is ‘false’ favourite?
What you need is a simple method that can determine what is right favourite. The ‘true’ favourite will have as many positives factors in their favour. On the other hand, the ‘false’ favourite will have less.
True favourite checklist
I have limited the number of factors to 9 and the more ticks the favourite gets the more stronger it is.
Here are the factors I use to determine what i see as a ‘true’ favourite.
Finished in the first three last time out:
A good last time out finishing position is an important positive factor when looking at the favourite.
Running again within the last 45 days:
It’s always good to see a favourite coming off a short lay off. It’s usually a sign that the horse that they are fit and have maintained the sharpness.
Proven at the distance of today’s race:
Proven ability at the distance of the race is more of a positive than a negative. Personally, I see proven at the distance who has won within half a furlong either way.
Proven on the prevailing going:
As with the distance proven form on the prevailing going is a positive factor. It doesn’t necessarily have to be winning form on the going although that’s useful.
Proven at the course:
Some horses excel at certain tracks, for whatever reasons. Given the aim of the exercise is to look at positives as its possible when it comes to assessing the favourite. Winning course form must be seen as a positive.
Now we come to what I consider the two most important positive factors.
Career win strike rate 33% or higher:
Consistency is all important factor when it comes to assessing the favourite. I decided on a 33 per cent win strike rate because favourites win 33% of races. If you have a horse that can win one in three races. I think we can call it consistent,
Place Strike Rate 50% or higher:
As with the win strike rate it’s all about consistency. If a favourite is placing in every other start, then we can reasonably assume that its likely to give its running.
The next two factors are more subjective.
Has the favourite got a good trainer:
What determines a good trainer? We all have different views when it comes to assessing the abilities of trainers. We have our favourite trainers that we like and conversely those that we don’t like.
Has the favourite got a good jockey:
Like with trainers its all about personal choice. There are jockey’s you like and jockey’s you don’t like. Some punters don’t want to see an apprentice on the favourite others don’t mind.
I looked at Saturday’s Group 1 Sun Chariot Stakes in Wednesday’s column. The race has a short- priced ante post favourite in Inspiral. For me the filly has eight out of nine ticks and would have had all nine ticks, but she hasn’t run for 55 days. That apart I think she’s a ‘true’ favourite.
To conclude:
There you have it a simple checklist of nine factors. I could easily have added more factors including form in the class of the race, but I think nine will do.
If the favourite has 7 to 9 ticks, we can consider it a strong favourite. On the other hand, if the favourite has 4 to 6 ticks a degree of caution is advised. Any favourite with 3 or less positive factors can be treated as a ‘false’ favourite and the shorter they are in the betting then I want to be taking them on.
Why not give it a try and put the race favourite under the eight tick test. You’ll find after a time that you get them right far more often than you get them wrong.
Thursday Preview
Sadly, we don’t see Frankel’s half-brother Kikkuli in the 7f novice at Salisbury (2:57). However, the colt’s joint trainers do run a Juddmonte racecourse debutant Inversion who is a son of Frankel. The race has been divided and Juddmonte also have an interesting well bred filly Indelible making her debut in the 3:27. A well-bred daughter of Shamardal she’s trained by Ralph Beckett who won a division of this race 12 months ago with Remarquee.
On a day when juvenile contests are the most interesting contests on the Salisbury card. The most valuable race is the Class 2 condition race (3:57).
Ralph Beckett has the likely favourite here in Palmer Bay. We haven’t seen the son of Exceed And Excel since he won here (5f) since he won here in May. He looked that day like a colt who could improve but soft ground would be an unknown. Solar Aclaim won a novice on racecourse debut over C&D on rain softened ground last month and is another to consider. Jump Jet looked useful who won a heavy ground Ffos Las maiden 34 days ago and is another who is capable of better.
Salisbury
4:30 – Haymaker did best of those drawn high when a 5 ¼ length 9th off 22 in the Portland Handicap at Doncaster 19 days ago. A keen goer in his races but provided he doesn’t do too much to early he’s got likeable claims in this 6f handicap. This is a drop in class for the 4-year-old, but he might prefer better ground.
Katey Kontent has shaped on her last two starts like a win might not be too far away. Proved herself on good to soft last time when a length 3rd of 10 at Yarmouth 16 days ago but soft ground asks another question of the filly and stall 13 isn’t ideal.
Tiriac bounced back to his best dropped to 6f when a neck 2nd of 10 at Goodwood 8 days ago. It was soft ground at Goodwood so underfoot conditions won’t phase the 3-year-old whose sole career win came on heavy ground. Same mark as last time and the one to beat of in the same form this afternoon.
By the way Tiriac is the bookies early bird favourite and he gets 6 ticks on the favourites checklist. That makes his a a reasonable enough market leader and if you can get 9/2 or better, I don’t think he’s a bad bet either.
Good luck with your Thursday bets.
John