Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece I’m on weather watch. Plus, there’s a look at three of today’s big races.
Weather Watch
I mentioned in Wednesday column that its looks like dry weather until the end of the weekend. Well, we’re also in for some unseasonably warm weather. That means were looking at ground on the quick side of good at Newmarket. Ascot and Redcar on Saturday.
The going at Newmarket was being described as good at Newmarket but I would expect it to be quicker if the track doesn’t indulge in some watering. At Ascot it’s good, good to soft in places but dry weather means its likely to be quicker than that. Likewise, Redcar which is currently good, good to firm in places will be on closer to good to firm all over for its most valuable meeting of the season.
The chance of quick ground at Ascot means Bless You has to be considered for Saturday’s Howden Challenge Cup (Heritage Handicap). I didn’t mention the 9-year-old in my race preview as I wasn’t convinced, he would be running. However, I see that Hayley Turner has been booked for the ride so it looks like he will run.
He does require a strong pace to chase to win which makes him a bit of a hostage to fortune in that regard. He is on a good mark when all the cards fall right though.
I haven’t added him to my ante post picks Escobar & Orbaan yet. I want to see what sort of pace set up we’ll get. However, the 25/1 available with bet365 about Bless Him is mightily tempting.
Talking of Escobar, I see David O’Meara has booked Neil Callan for the ride on the 9-year-old as well as two of his other entries although not yet Orbaan.
Friday Preview
The best of Friday’s action in Britain is at Ascot. The Listed Troy Asset Management Noel Murless Stakes (3:57) being the highlight of a six card at the Berkshire track. There are also two Listed races on this evening’s Dundalk card the Legacy Stakes (6:00) and Star Appeal Stakes (7:00).
Dundalk
7:00 – Rising Sign looked a smart juvenile filly when beating nine rivals at Punchestown 23 days ago. The daughter of Frankel who holds an Irish 1,000 Guineas entry should be effective on the synthetic surface.
Kairyu must give her rivals 5lb after her success in the Group 3 Anglesey Stakes at the Curragh in July. Not sure what’s keep the filly off the track for 76 days, but she’s since switched owners and should be bang there even giving away a penalty.
Mysteries is more exposed than the other two fillies, but she brings solid form from better races into this contest. Trainer’s horses are in excellent form, and she can’t be ruled out with the hood she wore last time removed.
Ascot
3:57 – Troy Asset Management Noel Murless Stakes (Listed Race) – 1m 6f
Naqeeb looked a big improver when winning on handicap debut at Haydock last month. Capable of better and wouldn’t need to improve much more to win a Listed race like this.
Middle Earth beat Naqeeba nose in a Newmarket novice in July before improving again to win the Melrose Handicap at York’s Ebor Festival. Never looked comfortable in the St Leger last time but that may have been down to the soft ground. His stablemate Lmay improved for the step up to 1m 6f when a 1¾ lengths 3rd of 10 in the Group 2 Park Hill Stakes at Doncaster last month. Seems to be going the right way and is one to be interested in.
5:05 – Ascot Iron Stand Handicap (Class 2) – 6f
A maximum field of 18 are set to go to post and it’s a race that wouldn’t look out of place on a Saturday.
Rohaan
Not really at his best this season but there was more to like about his 1 ¾ length 7th of 24 in the Ayr Gold Cup last time. A four time C&D winner including a Group 3 12 months ago and the last season’s Wokingham Handicap. A reproduction of either those runs would make him hard to beat.
King’s Lynn
Hasn’t been in the winners enclosure since landing the Group 2 Temple Stakes last May. Plenty of good efforts in defeat since that give him a good chance and he seemed back to form when 6th of 22 in the Portland Handicap at Doncaster last month.
Lethal Nymph
Won two C&D handicaps last September and he was back to something like his best when a 1 ½ length 2nd of 12 to Baradar at Doncaster last month. Not proved the most consistent of horses but is on a handy mark if backing up his latest effort.
English Oak
Is the least exposed of the 18 runners and although he disappointed on handicap debut at York’s Ebor Festival (1m) he’s only had the four starts and remains capable of better. Interesting dropped back to sprinting for the first time.
Yaaser
Showed a liking for a strong gallop when coming from the rear to win at Southwell (7f) 23 days ago. Up 5lb for his Southwell success but remains on a competitive mark. A strongly run 6f could suit the 5-year-old and he can go well with his light weight.
Dusky Lord
Has been well below form on his four starts since joining his present connections. However, he’s back at 6f for the first time since winning last season’s Ayr Silver Cup and now 1lb lower than winning at Ayr.
Friday Selection:
Ascot
3:57 – Lmay – 11/2 @ Coral.
Good luck with your Friday bets.
John