Weekend Review

Hi all,

There was something everyone and I thought it was a terrific weekend of racing. We had top flat racing action at Newmarket and the first big jumps meeting of the new season at Chepstow. Indeed, the Friday’s action was arguably the best of the year outside of the big festivals.

I’m going to look at the Chepstow card in Tuesday’s column which will contain my first jumps eyecatchers for the winter campaign.

Inside today’s main piece I’m looking back at Newmarket’s Future Champions Festival.

Newmarket Future Champions Festival Review

Inquisitively broke fast and grabbed the fair rail and wasn’t for catching in the Group 3 Cornwallis Stakes. I was concerned about the rain softened ground for him, but it wasn’t as soft as the going description suggested. Indeed, the time guy I consult had Friday’s going on the soft side of good. He’s a speedy horse who could go to Santa Anita for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint.

Two nice prospects Dance Sequence and Skellet fought out the finish of the Group 3 Oh So Sharp Stakes. It was the former who came out on top by a neck in a great finish.

Dance Sequence was having her first start since winning on the other course on racecourse debut in July.  She still looked a bit green here and was doing her best work when hitting the rising ground. Looks capable of further improvement as a 3-year-old when she will be suited by a mile and further.  It was the start of a good weekend for trainer Charlie Appleby & jockey William Buick. 

Skellet gave her all in finishing second. She travelled through the race better than the winner. The daughter of Kingman should win more races as 3-year-old, but I think Dance Sequence will beat her should face each other in 1,000 Guineas trial in the spring.

bet365 Fillies' Mile

Ylang Ylang returned to winning ways in the Friday feature race. In the process she reversed placings with Shuwari who had finished in front of her Rockfel Stakes when the pair had faced each other last time.

Ylang Ylang’s stablemate Brilliant ensured the race was run at a strong pace which really suited the winner. The leader was headed two furlongs out by my ante post selection See The Fire. For the second race running she wandered around once hitting the dip and was caught inside the final furlong by first Shuwari and Ylang Ylang who proved a bit to strong close to home.

I don’t think the winner would have prevailed but for her pace making stablemate. I don’t think she has the speed for a 1,000 Guineas and Aidan O’Brien has a better filly in Opera Singer. However, she’s bred for 1m 2f+ and looks more of an Oaks filly.

I don’t like the way Sea The Fire wandered around in the closing stages and threw away the race. Being charitable you would put it down to residual greenness. If that’s the case, I think she will turn out to be the best of these as a 3-year-old.

City Of Troy is no wooden horse

Saturday’s Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes is often a ‘kingmaking’ and a good pointer to the following year’s 2,000 Guineas.

This year’s Dewhurst was hardly a vintage renewal of the race. However, we did see a big performance from winner City Of Troy. Now unbeaten on three starts the colt is a very short-priced favourite for next season’s first colts classic. The only surprise is that he didn’t go odds on for the 2,000 Guineas.

Aidan O’Brien has described City Of Troy as the best he’s ever trained. That’s high praise indeed.

Is this more than the usual Coolmore hype about an unbeaten colt?

Well it could be as the son of Justify will be an even better horse on a sounder surface and he showed on Saturday that’ he’s a well-balanced horse which bodes well for handling Epsom.

He’s the best juvenile colt we have seen this season and is worthy favourite for next season’s 2,000 Guineas & Derby after Saturday’s impressive success. A lot of water has to travel under the bridge before next year’s Classics, but the signs are good.

Is City of Troy best juvenile prospect since Frankel?

And.

Can he become the first Triple Crown winner since Nijinsky in 1970?  

The answer to the first question is a definite yes with a qualified yes to the second. I say qualified because his pedigree suggests that 1m 4f will be the limit of his stamina.

Charlie Appleby & William Buick Newmarket treble

Although City Of Troy rightly takes all the racing headlines after his Dewhurst win. It was a good Saturday for Charlie Appleby & William Buick who teamed up for a Newmarket treble including the two Group 3 juvenile races. 

It’s been a tough season for Appleby who he hasn’t had 3-year-old stars this season but after Dance Sequence win on Friday and Ancient Wisdom’s and Arabian Crown’s successes on Saturday he’s got some nice prospects for next season.

The step up to a mile and easier ground suited Ancient Wisdom who was a comfortable winner of the Autumn Stakes. He’s bred to better over 1m 2f+ as a 3-year-old, dam won over 1m 4f and he could develop into a Derby contender.

Arabian Crown ran out an impressive winner of the Zetland Stakes (1m 2f). Granted with just four runners it was a poor renewal of the race, but the colt could only beat what’s put in front of him and he did in some style. He’s another son of Dubawi who should be seen in a better light as a 3-year-old over middle distances. Like his stablemate it looks likely to be aimed at next season’s Derby.

The Shunter’s not for catching

Wonders never cease I tipped up a winner of the Cesarewitch. I had a final short list of three but in the end, I just went for The Shunter & Temporize. The latter never fired and was one of the first off, the bridle and was said to have lost both front shoes.

The Shunter might be a 10-year-old but the high class hurdler/chaser was very unexposed on the flat and it was his stamina that got him home. Jockey James Doyle who said was an eyecatching jockey booking always had the colt in a good position compared to runner-up Pied Piper who came from further back than the winner

I had opposed ante post favourite Pied Piper at 9/2 and he had drifted out to a more realistic 13/2 at the off.  It looked like Ryan Moore had timed his ride to perfection on the runner-up but he couldn’t overhaul The Shunter inside the final furlong.

Tashkhan ran a cracker to finish a length back in third under top-weight of 10-2 just losing out on second close to home.

The well fancied Grand Providence didn’t enjoy the rain softened ground and is worth noting when she gets back on quicker ground. Last year’s runner-up Vino Victrix was another who didn’t enjoy the ground.

Regarding the going. Whilst the course was advertising the ground as soft. Times suggest it was on the slow side of good. Albeit it was probably on the sticky side which might explain the run of Vino Victrix who should have had his favoured ground.

No joy for Mullins gamble

The gamble of the race was the Willie Mullins trained Lot Of Joy who was returned the 6/1 favourite. I’m not sure where that gamble emerged from, but she never looked she would repay her backers.  Given she was drawn out wide in stall 30. The mares backers were clearly unconcerned about the draw stat I mentioned in Wednesday’s race preview.

Top three, bottom three update:

Although the winner of the Cesarewitch wasn’t to be found in the handicap method I outlined in Thursday’s column. Tashkhan finished third at 25/1 but as I said plenty of nice, priced winners will be found using it.

On Saturday the likes of Montassib (10/1) and Certain Lad (9/2) won at York and Stolen Silver & Al Dancer at Chepstow were winners from the top three in the handicap in their respective races.

Even the bottom three in the weights got in on the act at Naas on Saturday with Glamorously (20/1) winning the Premier Nursery handicap and the well handicapped Stag Night (4/1) bouncing back to winning ways in the 6f handicap.

If you’re struggling for time to do form study or finding handicap winners hard to come by. Then you could do a lot worse than concentrate on the top three/four and bottom three/four in handicap races. I don’t think you’ve got much to lose by giving it a go.

I will elaborate on the method a little more in Thursday’s column.

Monday Preview

The most valuable race on Monday is a Class Fillies' Novice Stakes is at Kempton (6:30). There's £15,462 on offer to the winner of this juvenile contest. It's attracted a good sized field with 14 set to line-up. Eight of the 14 are making their racecourse debut.

The bookies have made one of the racecourse debutants Enchanted Life, trained by Charlie Appleby, the early favourite. It will be interesting to see how strong the daughter of Kodiac is in the pre-race betting. Next in the betting is another Godolphin owned filly Catherine Parr who trained by John & Thady Gosden. It's not a betting race for me but it could be an informative little contest.

Musselburgh

There’s an interesting Class 3 handicap (4:10) for the fillies at Musselburgh. Top-weight Kitai looked a progressive handicapper when winning at Carlisle & Pontefract during the summer.  Things haven’t worked out for her on three subsequent starts, a bit unlucky in the run at Pontefract last time. This represents a drop in class for her and she could make it tell if handling the track. Rock Melody has an excellent record at Musselburgh with form figures of 43112. All those runs have come over 5f but she does stay 7f and the addition of the first time cheekpieces makes her of interest given her course form.

Good luck with your Monday bets.

John