Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece I conclude my preview of Champions Day with a look at the Balmoral Handicap. Plus, there’s a bit more on the ‘top three, bottom three’ approach I explored in last Thursday’s column.
Before what's a long read, a quick look at the weather for Champions Day.
Champions Day: Weather Watch
If the more pessimistic rainfall forecasts about Storm Babet prove correct. Then there’s a serious chance that Champions Day could be abandoned.
Its highly likely that the inner course will be used for the 1m 2f+ races. There’s even been talk that the three races on the straight course could be moved if the straight track is unraceable.
I hope they don’t as they are two totally different tracks and the usual Ascot straight course from will go out of the window. Plus, I’m focusing on horses who want testing ground.
Top three, bottom three method revisited
Perhaps the main message from last week’s piece on the top three, bottom three in handicaps is that it’s no ‘golden egg’ to punting success.
It found plenty of winners last Saturday at very good odds. However, it will only find roughly about 43 % of all flat handicap winners or 62% of winners if you’re extending it to the top and bottom four horses.
Of course, it’s’ much less than 43% or 62% as you must identify the winner from those 43% or 62%. Plus, you’ve eliminated 57% of winners before you have started to look at the race.
Despite those stats it’s an approach that has its merits. Firstly, it cuts down the number of horses you have look at in each race. Which is all important if you aren’t time rich. For example: In a twenty runner race you’re only looking at six or maybe eight horses. Secondly, you’re starting by looking at what the official handicapper believes are the best three or four best horses in the race.
Balmoral Handicap
My personal approach is to order the race by weight carried using the Racing Post. And below I’m using Saturday’s Balmoral Handicap as an example.
I will then go through the race in three stages.
Stage 1
Firstly, I look at the top-weights. The above five horses and, yes, its five, are my starting point. I will go through the form of all five to see whether they are suited by the conditions of Saturday’s race. Once that’s completed, I will have one or two contenders left. Conversely, I could have dismissed all five as possible selections.
Even without delving into the form at this stage I can make case for all five of the above. And., I suspect I will be betting on at least one of them.
Migration
Is 6lb higher than when winning the Lincoln Handicap in the spring. He’s only had won race since but goes well off a layoff, loves the mud and I thought he was a bit unlucky in the run when 8th in last year’s race. Might find the weight anchoring him from a win perspective but I can see him going close.
Raadobarg
Has been plying his trade in Group/Listed company since winning the Irish Lincolnshire in March 2023. Drops back into handicap for the first time since winning the above race. He’s a consistent sort and will like underfoot conditions but doesn’t find winning easy. I would be surprised if there aren’t one or two better treated horses in the line-up.
Sonny Liston
Is proven over C&D, having finished runner up in the Royal Hunt Cup in June. That’s always a plus on Ascot’s straight course. A 4lb rise for finishing a short head runner-up to Liberty Lane at Doncaster demands more from the 4-year-old. He travelled through that Doncaster race like he’s on a good mark. Probably needs to be produced as late as possible to win.
Baradar
Won the valuable International Stakes (handicap) here in July. That was over 7f and he’s since followed up at Doncaster over an extended 6 ½ f. Soft ground suits the 5-year-old but he’s 5lb higher than when winning at Doncaster and a mile on testing ground stretches his stamina as shown in the Lincoln Handicap.
Al Mubhir
Caught the eye when a 4 ½ length 8th of 20 in the Golden Mile at Goodwood two starts back. The 4-year-old wasn’t disgraced when a 1¾ lengths 3rd of 7 in a Listed race (7f) at Newbury last time. The return to a mile and soft ground are pluses. Trainer William Haggas won this race in 2021 and Al Mubhir is high on my race shortlist.
Stage 2
Once that all done, I move on to stage two and look at the bottom three or four in the weights.
I’m looking for a certain type of horse. One that is lurking at the foot of the weights. I want to see is either a last time out winner or one that finished a close second and even better the horse has consistent form figures that show them to be on the upgrade.
However, most horses, even improvers stepping up in class can’t make the winning jump into a better class of race despite the weight advantage. Of course, some do but they are a rarity.
Below are the five horses presently at the bottom weights but this will almost certainly change come final declarations on Thursday.
Dancing Magic must be one be on of the best maidens in training. The booking of Osin Murphy is a positive but this is a tough race to shade the maiden tag.
Dual Identity won at Sandown two starts back but found an 8lb rise too much in the Cambridgeshire last time.
Eilean Dubh looks too high in the weights for a race like this to me.
I was expecting better from Lattam at York last Saturday and it looks like he might have reached his ceiling.
Of the five the most interesting at this stage is Vetiver. The 3-year-old filly won a Carlisle Listed race at the end of June and she returned from a 12 week absence with a respectable 6 length 3rd of 10 to Matilda Picotte in a Group 3 (7f) at Doncaster last month.
Stage 3
Coming into the final stage I’m likely to be down to a shortlist of three or four selections. If this was a run of the mill midweek handicap and I haven’t got any solid contenders, I would pass over the third stage. However, it’s a big field heritage handicap and they are my favourite type of race so I will move to stage 3.
In stage 3 I quickly go through the rest of the card. Like in stage 2, I’m looking for a certain type of horse. For example: horses that have dropped down the weights, say below their last winning mark or once again have got consistent form figures that suggest an improving type.
I haven’t even mentioned any of the six David O’Meara entries and last year’s winning trainer’s runners always need respecting in races like this. One of his entries Blue For You, I put up as a possible for this race after his run at Ascot last time. Given the likely ground I doubt I will be putting him up as a selection. Cue a win for the O’Meara horse.
Hopefully you now have a good idea of how I will be approaching a race like the Balmoral Handicap.
Balmoral Trends
I couldn’t resist a quick look at the Balmoral trends. There have been nine running’s of the race which contain – 9 winners from 184 runners, 26 placed.
Weights:
Given we have been discussing the higher weighted horses I thought I would start there.
Interestingly the first five in the weights are – 4 winners from 53 runners -1.5, 13 placed. Top weights are 0 winners from 12 runners, 1 placed in the last nine years.
Horses 11 and higher in the weights are – 1 winner from 77 runners -69, 12 placed.
From a trends perspective it looks like a race to concentrate on those runners in the top of the weights.
Stall:
Horses drawn in stalls 12 and above are 1 winner from 97 runners – 80, 18 placed.
Race Distance Move:
All nine winners were either dropping back from 1m 1f or stepping up from 7f – 9 winners from 109 runners +57, 28 placed. Those horses that ran over around a mile last time are – 0 winners from 57 runners, 5 placed.
Days Since Last Run:
All nine winners had run previously run within the last 25 days. Those who’s last run was beyond 25 days are – 0 winners from 64 runners, 5 placed.
% of Rivals Beaten In Last Race
Eight of the last nine winners had beaten 70% + rivals in their last race. Those under 70% are – 1 winner from 97 runners -16, 14 placed.
Balmoral Trends Verdict:
What sort of profile does a winner of the Balmoral have? Looking at the trends you seem to be looking for a horse that either ran at 7f or 1m 1f on their last start. Had beaten at least 70% of their rivals on their last start and had run within the last 25 days. A low draw i.e., drawn 12 or lower isn’t a negative either.
The top five in the weights have won 44% of renewals of the race which I’m happy with. Higher weighted horses do better than the lighter weighted counterparts which is something I will be noting.
Thursday Preview
We’ll be lucky to see much flat racing action over the next few days and even if we do it will heavy ground. The only upside of all the rain is the jumps tracks are getting some much needed natural irrigation. Which means we might not see the small field sizes that we did at this time last year due to the dry autumn.
Today the best of the action is over jumps with a couple of handicap chases of interest at both Wincanton & Carlisle.
Wincanton
3:10 – It may pay to go with a couple at the bottom of the weights in this 3m 1f handicap chase. Juniper is having her first start since switching to the Anthony Honeyball yard. The 9-year-old gained a second chase win when winning on her seasonal return at Wetherby last December. Good ground suits and she won’t be far away if ready roll on her first start for 182 days.
The other I like is bottom weight My Silver Lining who beat Juniper ¾ length in a valuable mares handicap chase at Cheltenham in April. A through stamina test and goodish ground suits the former C&D winner and although she’s 1lb worse off with Juniper she may be capable of bit better this season.
Carlisle
3:35 – Last year’s winner Court Dreaming won this off a 124 day layoff and the 10-year-old returns from 124 day break once more. He’s off the same mark as last year and given his record in the race, also runner-up in 2021 this will have been the target.
Mexico improved for the step up to 3m over hurdles last season. Chase debut for the 7-year-old here and he looks on a workable mark. His best form over the smaller obstacles came on rain softened ground and he may need that sort of going to win.
Top weight Guetapan Collonges can have a big say if fit enough for his seasonal return. The 7-year-old won two of his four starts over fences last season, including on seasonal return. He finished 4th in both Warwick’s Classic Chase and the Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter on the other two starts. This is a drop in class, and I think there’s a nice handicap chase in him this winter.
Thursday Selection:
If you knew this wasn’t a prep for a better race, I would fancy Guetapan Collonges at Carlisle. If today isn’t his day, it could be Court Dreaming’s as it was last year. Should the rain arrive to significantly ease the ground then chase debutant Mexico is a player.
I think the stable switch will suit Juniper but I’m just leaning towards the claims of My Silver Lining in the 3:10 at Wincanton.
Wincanton
3:10 – My Silver Lining – 11/4 @ Coral.
Good luck with your Thursday bets.
John