Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece I’m looking ahead to the best of Friday’s action.
Energumene’s out for the season
The winter jumps campaign has hardly got started but the first of the stars of the sphere is out for the season. It was announced on Wednesday that dual Champion Chase winner Energumene isn’t likely to run this season.
Energumene’s absence means the race look at the mercy of his stablemate El Fabiolo who was the top 2m novice chaser last season. Nearest market rival Jonbon who El Fabiolo beat in last season’s Arkle might well go for the Ryanair which doesn’t leave much else for the Champion Chase. Unless you think Edwardstone can bounce back at the age of ten.
Friday Preview
The wet and windy weather has claimed its first fixture of the weekend with today’s Haydock card being called off due to waterlogging. You could argue if they had eased off the artificial watering a bit over the summer the fixture may have taken place.
At Uttoxeter, it’s now an all hurdles card with chase course unraceable. Both Fakenham and Redcar should be fine to race this afternoon. Although the good to soft, good places at Redcar will surely ease if they get the 20mm of rain forecast for Thursday & Friday. However, there should be no problems with two all-weather fixtures at Dundalk and Newcastle.
Fakenham
The going at Fakenham on Thursday morning was good. However, 30mm was being forecast for the so you would expect to see soft to appear in the going description.
There’s £15,843 on offer to the winner of Fakenham’s Sky Bet Handicap Chase (4:53). Which makes this contest the most valuable race across Britain & Ireland today.
The more I looked at this race the more intriguing it became. There may only be seven runners, but I can make a decent case for five of them.
4:53 – Sky Bet Handicap Chase (Class 3) – 3m
My first point of call is the top three in the weights.
Top weight Brief Times has won twice this season on good & good to soft. He’s improved for the step up to 3m and should go well but is vulnerable to any better treated rivals.
Tweed Skirt won her first two starts over fences last year before not being disgraced in much better races on three subsequent starts. Must prove she stays this far but if she does, she’s a big player down in class.
Yccs Portocervo has won both this season’s starts. Both those successes have come at Uttoxeter, but he’s won here over hurdles. He’s now 7lb higher than for his latest win which means he needs to improve again to win this.
Tainer Stuart Edmunds (Arizona Cardinal) is 4 winners from 11 runners 36% +18 with his chasers at Fakenham in the past 5-years. Arizona Cardinal is 4lb higher than winning at Uttoxeter in May. However, he’s only had five starts over fences so could be capable of better. Might prefer softer ground but can’t be discounted.
David Pipe is 4 winners from 9 runners 44% (Neon Moon) +7.63 with his chasers here in the past 5-years. Neon Moon remain a maiden after 7 starts over fences. However, he’s shaped well enough on several occasions to think he can win a race like this off his present mark. No great record first time up but if he’s ready to roll he won’t be far away.
Verdict:
Of the three at the top of the weights I prefer Tweed Skirt. She won first time up last season and if she stays is weighted to go close. However, she’s priced up in the early bird betting accordingly. I prefer two in the middle of the weights in Arizona Cardinal & Neon Moon. I was hoping for bigger than 7/2 about the first named which leaves Neon Moon as the pick but I was also hoping for bigger than 4/1 about Neon Moon to but there's been early money for him. Despite my belief that there's not much value in his present price he remains today's nap.
Friday Selection:
Fakenham
4:53 – Neon Moon.
Good luck with your Friday bets.
John