Melbourne Cup Preview

Hi all,

It was a fantastic weekend of racing. We had two days’ at the Breeders’ Cup, and we also had high quality jumps action at Wetherby & Ascot.

Inside today’s main piece I’m looking back at the Breeders’ Cup and Saturday’s Wetherby card. Plus, there's my preview of the Melbourne Cup and the best of the action at Kempton on Monday afternoon.

Breeders Cup Review

Friday

The Europeans got off to flying start with wins by Big Evs in the Juvenile Turf Sprint and Unquestionable took the Breeders’ Juvenile Turf.

Big Evs was well suited by 5f around Santa Anita and showed he didn’t have to lead to win. Both the second third came from the rear and so you can mark up Big Evs success give his was always in a prominent position.  I thought when he drifted wide off the bend that was it for Big Evs but he went on again. Valiant Force flew home down the outside from his wide draw. He was back on quick ground for the first time since winning at Royal Ascot. It clearly suits the colt.

Unquestionable was helped by the late scratching of stablemate River Tiber. The race couldn’t have panned out better for him and the step up to mile suited the colt. It was a 1-2 for Aidan O’Brien with Mountain Bear finishing runner-up. It wasn’t the strongest of renewals of the race but the winner can only beat what’s put in front of him.

Saturday

Inspiral bounced off the fast ground and proved her effectiveness for 1m 2f when winning Filly & Mare Turf. She was in a bit of pocket between the final two furlongs, but produced her trademark turn of foot once in the clear to collar Warm Heart close to home.

Unlike the winner Warm Heart got the perfect run through. When she took up inside the final furlong, I thought she would go onto win. But she was cut down by an even quicker horse. She proved she had the speed for 1m 2f but 1m 4f on quick remain her optimum conditions.

Out of stall 13 I didn’t fancy Master of The Seas in the Breeders’ Cup Mile. He was dropped in at the start and the strong gallop suited him. Wide coming into the straight he ran on strongly to beat Mawj by a nose. The runner-up got a good ground saving ride and took it up a furlong out it. It looked she would prevail, and she would have done if the line was a stride earlier.

The Japanese mare Songline got the strong pace she needed but the tight Santa Anita track and the short straight didn’t suit her running style.

It was a third successive win in the race for Charlie Appleby and a 10^th win at Breeders’ Cup for the Newmarket trainer.  

Ryan Moore Masterful Ride

Auguste Rodin got the perfect run through to win the Breeders’ Cup Turf. It was a good ride from Ryan Moore. He sneaked through the inside following Shahryar when that one came off the rail in the straight it opened it up of Auguste Rodin and he never looked he would be caught inside the final furlong.

The third home Shahryar was a bit unlucky. If he had stayed where he was, he might well have gone onto win.

Mostahdaf was keen in the early stages, had a wide trip and weakened out of it 1f.  He had little chance of staying 1m 4f in the circumstances.

Fair play to Auguste Rodin got the best trip, the best ride, loved the rattling quick ground and showed he’s got good tactical speed.  I think we can mark him up as an above average Derby winner. There was talk about him staying in training as a 4-year-old. That would be great but I suspect he will end up heading to stud duties.

No Dream For West

There was no dream ending for Live The Dream. Like at York when winning the Nunthorpe he showed brilliant early speed and was clear entering the straight. Sadly, he’d done too much to early and was headed in the final half furlong and faded to finish fourth.

If Ryan Moore took the riding honours in the turf. Take a bow Gerardo Corrales who kept winner Nobals against the fair rail and gave his horse a great ride.

Runner-up Big Invasion like the winner got a ground saving ride on the inner but he didn’t get the best of runs 1f out. Given he lost by a neck he can be rated a slightly unlucky loser.

Aesop's Fables who had improved for the fitting of the first time blinkers when third in the Prix de l'Abbaye. The strong early pace suited the 3-year-old, and he motored down the home straight to take a ¾ length third. Unlike the two horses who finished in front of him he made his effort in the centre of the track. With a better passage he might well have won.

Breeders’ Cup Verdict:  

I thoroughly enjoyed the Breeders’ Cup and the coverage on ITV.  It’s called the “Greatest Show On Turf” for a reason and last weekend we once more saw why.  I love the way the Americans cover the meeting with Beyer figures, sectionals, and the betting content. That’s how you promote the sport and it’s a joy to watch. I doubt anyone at Great British Racing will take heed of it though.

Wasn’t it a joy to see the turf races run on rattling fast ground producing good finishes. Our flat racecourses obsess about good ground when Santa Anita is happy to provide fast ground. Interestingly there were also no complaints from the British trainers about the quick ground either. Funny that.

My tipping wasn’t good over the two days. Nine losing selections with just two placing is testament to that.  Maybe I shouldn’t bother betting on the meeting. However, it’s nailed on I will be back next year for more punishment at Del Mar.

Wetherby: Charlie Hall Day

Wetherby survived a Saturday morning inspection to race.  There was a strong looking renewal of the bet365 Mares’ Hurdle which was won by the returning Your Wear It Well. The Mares’ Novice Hurdle winner at the Cheltenham Festival bounced back from a low key performance against the boys at Aintree in April. The mare made all for a gusty success and even a final hurdle mistake couldn’t stop her. The Mares’ Hurdle at Cheltenham will now be her end of season target.

Runner-up and 11/8 favourite Luccia looked to be travelling with menace coming to the last. But like the winner she made a mistake at the last and thus couldn’t take advantage. Better ground would have suited the flat bred mare and race like the Greatwood Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham might see her in a better light.

Kateira probably needed the run, but she was beaten two out and finished a well beaten third, so it was disappointing given her improved performances at the end of last season.  

The Grade 2 bet365 Hurdle went the way of the Gary Moore trained Botax Has. Back from a 280-day break the 7-year-old who goes well fresh toughed it out to hold off the challenge of Red Risk on the run in.

Red Risk had stamina to prove and travelled better than anything. You couldn’t stay he didn’t stay the 3m he should just come up against a determined winner.

The consistent Dashel Drasher got a fairly uncontested lead, but he shaped like the run was needed in third. This should have put him spot fitness wise for the rest of the season.

There was plenty of market confidence behind Thyme Hill who was sent off 7/4 favourite. He couldn’t justify it and its was an underwhelming performance for me.

A Clash Of The Games

Just the four runners for the Charlie Hall Chase. Despite the small field it was interesting race. As expected, Ahoy Senor took the field along. I thought he was jumping ok, but he landed awkwardly at the 9^th and after that confidence drained away from him. He was eventually pulled up two out.

That left Bravemansgame in front with Gentlemansgame stalking. The latter came under pressure after three out whilst the leader was still travelling strongly. Coming to the last it looked Bravemansgame would back up last year’s win. But a mistake at last proved costly. It may have been a tired mistake as he went from in control to in trouble.

Gentlemansgame jumped the last well and in receipt of 6lb and with race fitness on his side he wore down the favourite on the run in.

Given this was just the winner was just having his third start over fences it was a tremendous effort. He’s open to further improvement and is going to the top of the chasing ranks.

Third home Midnight River is being aimed at Newbury’s Coral Gold Cup and will be sharper for this run.

What Next?

Jockey Harry Cobden had given Bravemansgame his best chance to win by holding onto him as long as possible. The mistake at the last knocked the stuffing out of Bravemansgame and that was that.  The King George VI at Kempton is his early season target, so defeat won’t really concern connections. He’ll come on plenty for that run, and he remains the one to beat on Boxing Day. That said I think he’s vulnerable.

Gentlemansgame is 25/1 with Paddy Power for the Gold Cup whilst Bravemansgame is just 8/1 with the same firm. Those odds are ridiculous as Bravemansgame won’t win a Gold Cup at Cheltenham. But Gentlemansgame could.  I couldn’t resist those odds and I think you should take the 25/1 available for the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

Ante Post Advice:  Cheltenham Gold Cup 2024.

Gentlemansgame – 25/1 @ Paddy Power & William Hill.

Melbourne Cup Preview

At 4am tomorrow morning it’s the race that stops the nation the Melbourne Cup. Before the pandemic I used to stay up for the race and loved to have a crack at it. For the last few years I haven’t bothered to watch it live. Despite that it's a race I like to have a swing at and I will be doing so again this year.

Compared to 12 months when the race was run on soft its likely to be quick ground at Flemington. Willie Mullins has been bidding for 20 years to win the Melbourne Cup and this could be the year he does it. He has two big contenders in favourite Vauban and Ebor winner Absurde.  

Vauban has a huge chance, but his odds reflect that. He’s got a handy low draw in stall 3 and Ryan Moore is in the saddle. He handled quickish ground when winning at Royal Ascot, but it could be even quicker here.

Absurde looks held by his stablemate when a 7 ½ length runner-up to Vauban at Royal Ascot. But he did best of those who in a modestly run race. He’s since improved to win the Ebor Handicap and has each way claims.

More contenders

Last year’s winner Gold Trip must be respected but it could be much quicker ground than 12 months ago and I’m happy to let him win at 5/1.

Without A Flight was well fancied for last years race but rain scuppered his chance and he only finished 13th of 22. Comes into Tuesday’s race off the back of a career best effort when winning the Caulfield Cup 17 days ago. Provided the ground is no worse than good he’s got to be considered

Soulcombe won last year’s Melrose Handicap when trained by William Haggas. Has a habit of being slowly away as he was when a 5 ½ length 7^th of 18 in the Caulfield Cup last time. The 4-year-old has definite claims from stall 4 if he breaks on terms.

Japanese challenger Breakup shouldn’t be judged to harshly on his 5 ¾ length 8^th of 18 to Without A Flight in the Caulfield Cup. It was his first run for 118 days and was likely undercooked that day and will be spot on fitness wise for this. I really liked his chance but stall 18 isn’t great.

Lively Longshots:

Magical Lagoon won last year’s Irish Oaks when trained by Jessica Harrington and struggled on her first four starts in Australia this year. But the filly ran with a bit more encouragement when a 1 length 6^th of 13 in the Geelong Cup 13 days ago. An outsider with a squeak.

Future History won a Group 3 handicap (1m 4 ½ f) here last month and ran even better when a ¾ length 3^rd of 14 to one of today’s rivals Cleveland 11 days ago. If he stays 2m then he’s got claims with Hollie Doyle taking the ride on the light weight.

Daqiansweet Junior is a real ‘roughie’ at 100/1. Granted the 6-year-old hasn’t won for 18 months but he ran a cracker in last year’s race when sixth and has been trained for this once more. His win odds reflect his chance but 20/1 for the place is worth looking at.  

Melbourne Cup Verdict:

Vauban is the one to beat and the most likely winner. Stablemate Absurde shouldn’t be far away and can get into the money. Japanese challenger Breakup is one I will be backing despite stall 18.Hollie Doyle should get a good spin on Future History and if you want a real outsider who could get into the places you could probably do worse than opt for Daqiansweet Junior.

Monday Preview

There’s a good all-weather at Kempton this afternoon with the Listed Racing TV Floodlit Stakes (3:00), yes, it’s taking place in the afternoon and the Racing TV London Middle Distance Series Final (4:00) are the highlights of a nine race card. The latter race has £41,232 on offer to the winner which isn’t bad for a Monday afternoon.

I’m looking at the best of the action at Kempton.

Kempton

3:30 – Measured Time won his first two starts here both over a mile and improved for the step up to 1m 2f on handicap debut when successful at Newmarket 73 days ago. His half brother Rebal Romance won the Breeders Cup over 1m 4f last year so the colt should stay and could improve for the step up in trip. Yard won this last year.

4:00 – Racing TV London Middle Distance Series (Final) Handicap – 1m 3f

I’m going with top weight Max Mayhem. The 5-year-old won over C&D in April but has been hit and miss on turf on four starts since and ran very poorly at the Shergar Cup 86 days ago. Hopefully he’s been freshened up by the break and is interesting returned to the all-weather. He looks worth a go at 5/1 & bigger.

Max Mayhem.

Good luck with your Monday bets.

John