Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece you can read my thoughts on the 2023 flat season. Plus, there’s three future winners for the tracker.
Those who took up the Victor Value £10 November pass offer have already got their £10 back and £10 punters made a £130 profit over the weekend. There’s still time to get on board with more big betting handicaps next weekend.
The Irish flat season ended at the Curragh and the British turf flat season ended on Saturday at Newmarket and not at Doncaster next Saturday.
There are two reasons why it all ended on Saturday without any sort of fanfare.
Firstly, Redcar is unraceable which means Tuesday’s flat fixture has been switched to Chelmsford.
Secondly, last week’s heavy rain at Doncaster means the traditional highlight of the last day of the flat season the Virgin Bet November Handicap has been switched to Newcastle.
Talk about ending with a whimper and adds weight to my argument that the flat season should end on Futurity Day at Doncaster.
I praised Down Royal’s quick decision to cancel last Friday & Saturday’s cards and reschedule them for this weekend. However, I think the decision to move the Doncaster’s card to Newcastle by Arena Racing was done too quickly.
One of the reasons given was that another 25mm to 50mm of rain was being forecast for the track this week. That doesn’t tally with the weather apps that I consult which are predicting not much more than 5mm up until Saturday.
The real reason for the move is Arena Racing’s they would lose the media rights money if they found they couldn’t race at Doncaster on Saturday.
That’s a nice Segue into my short review of the 2023 flat season.
2023 Flat Season Review
I am glad this flat season is over. Royal Ascot and York’s Ebor Festival were as ever brilliant. However, the rest of the season was a disappointment. Frequent bouts of heavy rain made the Guineas Festival, Newmarket’s July meeting, Goodwood, the St Leger, and Dewhurst meetings less than satisfactory.
On the plus side we might have a potential superstar in Dewhurst winner City of Troy. The Aidan O’Brien trained colt if he trains on surely has the 2,000 Guineas & Derby at his mercy. He could even be Triple Crown horse if he wins the first two Classics. Mind you I was saying that about Auguste Rodin 12 months ago.
I think O’Brien could also have next season 1,000 Guineas winner in Opera Singer. The filly really impressed me when winning the Prix Marcel Boussac at Longchamp.
A handful of nice Godolphin juveniles also emerged in the autumn so hopes are high that we could have a decent crop of 3-year-old’s next year.
Of the 3-year -old’s Auguste Rodin was one of the better Derby winners of recent years and he’s under lined that with wins in the Irish Champion Stakes and Breeders’ Cup Turf. I think his two blow outs in the 2,000 Guineas & King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes mean he hasn’t had the recognition he deserves.
Ace Impact landed the French Derby and put in a scintillating display of speed to win the Arc. Sadly, he’s off to stud and we won’t see him race again.
Overwatering and inaccurate going descriptions.
Over watering at tracks hasn’t helped this season either. Clerks of Courses have sought to eliminate firm from the going description. The clerks are paranoid about horses being injured on fast ground or trainers pulling their horses on account of quick ground.
If they can race successfully at Santa Anita on rattling fast turf, why can’t we have it here? I love flat racing on quick turf, for me nothing beats it, but we’re moving further away from it each year.
Inaccurate going descriptions have also made the season unsatisfactory from a betting perspective. If you’re not sure on what the going is why risk your hard earned money on a bet.
We have a levy that is based on bookmaker gross profits rather than betting turnover and there’s no incentive on those who run horse racing to do anything about it. The more punters lose the better it is for the sport.
Three For The Tracker:
I have three tracker horses from Saturday’s racing at Ascot, Ayr & Wetherby.
Monbeg Genius – Jonjo O’Neill
Looked on a good mark based on his 2 ¼ length 3rd of 23 to Corach Rambler in the Ultima Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. The 7-year-old was in midfield just behind the leaders when making a bad mistake five out in Saturday’s Sodexo Live! Gold Cup Handicap Chase at Ascot. That error ended any chance he had and he was pulled up before two out. He remains the 10/1 favourite joint favourite with sponsors for the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury. A big contender for that race and if you fancy him for that contest, I wouldn’t let this run put you off.
Famous Bridge – Nicky Richards
Famous Bridge is another who looked on winnable mark on his return to action at Ayr on Saturday. That impression was confirmed when he finished a ¾ length 4th of 10 to Whodini. That was the 7-year-old’s first start for 8 months. He had every chance when making a mistake at the last. But for that he may have made a winning seasonal return. He stays 3m and remains capable of better over fences this winter.
Happy And Fine – Alex Hales
Twice a winner over hurdles last season. The 6-year-old made a solid first start over fences when a 6 ¾ length 3rd of 13 to The Edgar Wallace at Wetherby on Saturday. The winner was well in on his best form and the runner-up was an experienced second season chase. In the circumstance this was a good introduction to chasing. The trainers runners seem to have needed their first runs. So, he should step up from this run. There are races of over fences to be won with him this winter.
It may also keep an eye on the fourth Ladronne. Last year’s winner of the race was making seasonal return this time around and looked like he needed his first start. He was doing his best work at the finish and needs further than an extended 2m 3f. He won over an extended 3m1 f at Catterick last November and return to that sort of trip should see the 9-year-old back in the winners enclosure off his present mark.
Tuesday Preview
There’s an interesting jumps fixture at Fairyhouse this afternoon. One of the most interesting of the races on the card is the Beginners Chase (11:53). Sandor Clegane who was third in the Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival makes his debut over fences. He faces several interesting chase debutants including An Epic Song who was a head second to Langer Dan Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham in March.
Another Cheltenham Festival winner Iroko (Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle) makes his chase debut in the Stan Mellor Memorial Novices' Chase (1:55) at Warwick. He’ll be a warm order to make a winning return to action. However, faces five rivals including the returning Kilbeg King who won a handicap hurdle at the Punchestown Festival at the end of last season.
The most valuable races today are both at Lingfield. The first of then is the Listed Fleur De Lys EBF Fillies' Stakes (1:12). Followed 35 minutes by the Listed River Eden EBF Fillies' Stakes (1.47).
1:12 – Fleur De Lys EBF Fillies' Stakes (Listed) – 1m
Zellie won the Group 1 Prix Marcel Boussac as a juvenile and finished 4th of 13 in last year’s 1,000 Guineas when trained by Andre Fabre. She didn’t really build on those efforts on two subsequent starts. Not disgraced on debut for the Gosden yard in a Listed race at Goodwood in May. Off since but has the class to win this if close to her best.
All five of Queen Aminatu’s career wins have on the all-weather including this corresponding race 12 months ago. Needs a strong pace to chase but if she gets it has a good chance.
Potapova has returned to form on her last two starts finishing third in a Group 3 at Sandown and a ½ length 2nd of 12 to Coppice in Listed race at Newmarket 39 days ago. Back on the all-weather but should go well.
Al Agaila is another who is a much better filly on the artificial surfaces. She’s won four of her six start on the all-weather including two here (both over 1m 2f). Returned to action after a 106-day layoff to win a Kempton handicap (1m). Back up in class here but very much in the mix.
1:47 – River Eden EBF Fillies' Stakes (Listed Race) – 1m 5f
No trainer is in better form at present than William Haggas. He’s also saddled the winner of the Listed contest (1m 5f) three times since 2017 and had the third last year. Safety Catch represents the trainer this year. The daughter of Cracksmen got off the mark at the third attempt when winning a Pontefract maiden 29 days ago. The step up to 1m 4f suited her and she stay today’s extra furlong (dam won this race in 2012). Takes a big step up in class here but she’s open to further improvement and this is a winnable race. Stall 13 isn’t ideal but I’m hopefully it won't be too much of an inconvenience for her.
Tuesday Selection:
Nice to get the week off to a good start with a winning selection on Monday as Max Mayhem landed the London Middle Distance Series (Final) at Kempton. I’m staying on the all-weather for Tuesday selection.
Lingfield
1:47 – Safety Catch – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes.
Good luck with your Tuesday bets.
John