Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece I begin my look ahead to the weekend’s big races by previewing Saturday’s Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham.
Affordability Checks Petition
Unless you have been on Mars for the last couple of weeks you will be aware of the affordability checks petition. I signed it, albeit a bit reluctantly, not because I’m in favour of AC but because petitions are usually the last refuge for those that have run out of ideas. Plus, I do think AC’s should be used for those playing FOBT’s and casino games online. If you’re losing say £5000 a day on FOBT’s there a strong case that you should be subjected to affordability checks.
The petition needs 100k signatures for their to be a possible debate in Parliament and if other petitions are any guide, you will be lucky if 20 MP’s can be bothered to turn out on the day to discuss it.
At the time of writing less than 85k have signed it. Now given the publicity the Racing Post and racecourses have given it. Plus, the amount of people who bet on horses or work in horse racing industry it’s a pretty poor figure.
You need at least 250k to give you the momentum to show government that there are a lot of people exercised by the issue of affordability checks. At present those advocating for AC’s will rightly be able say that even punters are not concerned about them.
A good petition can do wonders for a campaign, a bad one can do the opposite, and this is heading into the latter camp.
Don’t Mention The C Word
Yes. I know I shouldn’t mention the C word so early in the winter jumps campaign. However, having not really got involved in last season’s Cheltenham Festival ante post wise, I find myself with three bets already and we’re only two weeks into November.
I have backed Inthepocket (16/1) for the Turners Novices Chase. Gentlemansgame (25/1) for the Gold Cup and Irish Point (20/1) for the Stayers Hurdle.
I’m not sure if this means I’m going to have a large Festival ante post portfolio or not. But there’s no denying I’m already well ahead of last season.
Looking Ahead To The Weekend – Part 1
Cheltenham’s three day November meeting gets underway on Friday with two Grade 2 contests. On Saturday the Paddy Power Gold Cup (2:20) is the highlight of a seven race card.
ITV Racing are covering four races from Cheltenham on Friday and another four on Saturday as well as the two Listed races on Lingfield’s all-weather card.
There’s more good racing at Cheltenham on Sunday. Jonbon could make his seasonal return in the Grade 2 Shloer Chase (2:55). There’s £56,950 on offer to the race but the race only attracted six entries. Mind you they do include Edwardstone and Nube Negra who bids for third successive win the race.
The big betting race on the Cheltenham card is The Unibet Greatwood Handicap Hurdle (3:00) which has £100,000 in guaranteed prize money.
As was the case on Friday & Saturday. ITV Racing are covering four races live from Cheltenham on Sunday afternoon.
Sunday also see’s the second day of racing at Navan with the highlight being the valuable Troytown Handicap Chase.
Cheltenham: Paddy Power Gold Cup (Handicap Chase)
Trends
Looking at the race trends which contain 15 winners from 267 runners, 59 placed.
Fourteen of the last 15 winners shared the following traits:
Age: 5yo to 9yo.
Odds SP: 25/1 or less.
Highest Class Run: Grade 1, Grade 2, Grade 3 or Listed.
Runs At the Track: Not 0 to 1.
Handicap Chase Wins: 0 to 2.
That’s 14 winners from 127 runners +38, 36 placed. Looking at those trends should eliminate more than half of the field.
N.B. last year’s winner wasn’t to be found using the above trends and the best of the four qualifiers only finished fifth.
Favourites are underperforming and you must go back to 2009 to find the last successful market leader. Still, it’s a good race for punters with horses priced 5/1 to 9/1 producing 9 winners from 53 runners +21, 24 placed.
Eleven of the last 15 winners from 126 runners, 32 placed were officially rated 139 to 148.
The top performing trainer is Nigel Twiston-Davies with 3 winners from 18 runners +36.5, 6 placed.
For those of you who have been following my top three/four in the weights. The Paddy Power Gold Cup hasn’t been a good one. Since 2008 those in the top five in the weights are – 2 winners from 78 runners -60, 16 placed and are performing 73% below market expectations. Ouch.
Just seventeen were left in the race at Monday’s final confirmation stage. We could be looking at a field size like last year when just 14 went to post. It’s a shade disappointing to see just a small number of entries for one of the traditional highlights of the month. But if all the main contenders stand their ground, then we should be in for a cracker of a race.
Contenders:
The Real Whacker tops the weights and bids to become the first top weight to win the race since Al Ferof in 2012. He deserves his top weight given he ended last season with a win in the Grade 1 Brown Advisory Novices' Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. He’s a legitimate Cheltenham Gold Cup contender but winning this on his seasonal return and under such a big weight would be some performance.
Next in the weights is another Cheltenham Festival Grade 1 winner Stage Star who won the Turners Novices' Chase in March. He’s the bookies ante post favourite at around 4/1. That’s too short for me and given the record of favourites I can pass.
The second in the Turners Notlongtillmay could also line up and there shouldn’t be much between the pair at the weights. The 7-year-old does have race fitness on his side though having run well here over an inadequate two mile here last month.
Fugitif looked an ideal type for this race when a 2 length 2nd of 23 in the Plate Handicap Chase here in March. He’s been nudged up 4lb for that effort which makes life tougher, but I think he won’t be far away especially with ease in the ground. I am wondering if trainer Richard Hobson might opt for some cheekpieces for the 8-year-old.
Of those towards the foot of the weights Torn And Frayed, trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies, takes the eye. We haven’t seen the 9-year-old since he won a Grade 3 Handicap Chase here on Trials Day in January 2022. He’s only 4lb higher and is weighted to be competitive. It will be some training feat to win this off a 658 day layoff.
Paddy Power Gold Cup Verdict:
It looks a potentially high class renewal of the race. Whilst the top five in the weights don’t have great records in the race in recent years. I still have The Real Whacker, Fugitif & Notlongtillmay high on my shortlist. I also like Torn And Frayed. If he’s overcome what has kept him off the track for so long, then he’s weighted to win and the 20/1 available with Bet365 and Paddy Power will tempt me in. I haven’t even looked at those horses officially rated between 139 & 148 yet and 8 of 17 entries are in that ratings band. It’s a race where I will be having more than one selection and its highly possible, I will go in with three when I’ve had a look at the race more fully.
Wednesday Preview
We’d already lost what had looked a good Bangor card to the wet weather and on Tuesday we lost the last remaining jumps fixture at Ayr. That just leaves three all-weather cards at Dundalk, Newcastle, and Kempton.
Newcastle
3:15 – Eldrickjones seemed to win with a bit in hand over C&D 8 days ago. A 5lb penalty wouldn’t stop him if in the same form and he’s only been out of the first two once in five starts here. If you like Eldrickjones like I do you have to respect the claims of Shaladar. The 4-year-old was a 2 ¼ length runner-up Eldrickjones here last time. He didn’t get the best of runs 2f out that day after not the best of starts. That was his first start on the all-weather so he’s unexposed on the synthetics and has place claims.
Kempton
7:00 – Wild Side completed a hat trick at Redcar in June and returned to form after four month layoff when a 1¼ length 2nd of 12 over C&D 14 days ago. Cheekpieces go on for the first time and if they eke out a bit more improvement, she’ll take the beating. Urban Decay gained a second career success over C&D three weeks ago. She’s 4lb higher today but the daughter of Frankel has just had six starts so could be capable of better. Despite a wider than ideal draw I'm taking Urban Decay at the prices.
Wednesday Selection:
Kempton
7:00 – Urban Decay – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes.
Good luck with your Wednesday bets.
John