Hi all,
In today's article, I embark on a two-part reflection on the noteworthy racing events from the weekend. The second instalment will be published tomorrow, featuring some horses worth tracking.
This weekend treated jump racing fans to a spectacular lineup on both sides of the Irish Sea. While Cheltenham took centre stage, Navan's new two-day meeting marked the return of some prominent stars in the winter racing scene. Stay tuned for a detailed analysis of the Navan card in Tuesday's column.
For many old time punters, Cheltenham's November Meeting marks the true commencement of the winter jumps season. Much like how punters often initiate their flat betting at Newmarket's Guineas Meeting. Even today its makes perfect sense as the jumps form begins to stabilize after the preceding month's preliminary battles.
Well, my luck over the jumps hasn't been stellar of late, but the AW racing at Lingfield proved more favourable. I managed to pick the winners of both Listed Races—Blue Trail and Willem Twee—and even snagged the runner-up spot with Kinta in Willem Twee's race. It turned out to be a solid forecast for those who followed my lead.
Kinta was a significant outsider in the pre-race betting, drifting to 22/1. While I would have preferred her to win, given my current form, I'm content with a 6/1 winner, despite the 10p Rule 4. Now, my focus is on turning things around over jumps.
Cheltenham's November Extravaganza: Racing Recap with a Dash of Stardust!”
The Paddy Power Gold Cup on Saturday was a standout handicap race, arguably unrivalled in quality for many years. The race was characterized by its depth and represented one of the highest-quality handicap chases witnessed in years. Let's hope this trend continues in the weeks ahead.
Stage Star Delivers Dominant Performance
Stage Star and The Real Whacker disputed the lead, setting a brisk pace until four fences out. The Real Whacker was the first to drop out, leaving Stage Star to establish a lead two fences from the finish. While he seemed poised for a comfortable victory, a misjudgement at the final fence resulted in a steep landing and a momentary setback. Remarkably, Stage Star and his jockey demonstrated resilience, recovering from the mistake, and highlighted the horse's toughness.
Looking ahead, Stage Star is now on course for the Ryanair Chase. However, considering his proficiency when fresh and the taxing nature of this race, it remains uncertain if we'll see him in action before Cheltenham. A well-deserved break may be in the cards to ensure he's in prime condition come March. It will be great to see him and Allaho go toe to two in the Ryanair Chase.
The winner silenced any sceptics with an impressive performance. Initially questioning the strength of his Turners Novices’ Chase win over Notlongtillmay at the Festival, I was proven wrong as the runner-up secured the same position in the recent event.
Despite being unable to capitalize on the winner's mistake at the last fence, Notlongtillmay delivered a commendable effort, especially considering the ground conditions were a bit softer than ideal.
How Did The Other Contenders Fare
Fugitif displayed excellent jumping and maintained a strong position throughout the race, but unfortunately, he didn't have any extra energy left approaching the last fence. Perhaps a shift back to a strongly run 2-mile race on soft ground could prove beneficial for him, offering him a chance to secure a well-deserved significant handicap chase victory this season.
Easy As That struggled to keep up with the early pace in this competitive field. Nevertheless, to his credit, he rallied in the straight and managed to secure 6th place. Trainer Venetia Williams has indicated that she thinks he needs further than 2m 4f. He’s starting the season with a favorable handicap mark.
I thought The Real Whacker ran well for long way before eventually pulling up three out. Given his needed his first run last season, I’m hopeful that he will showcase improved form with this run under his belt.
The going was officially described as soft all over. On race times, it was soft on the chase course but heavy on the hurdles track. Given the conditions, Stage Star's performance in the Paddy Power Gold Cup becomes particularly noteworthy.
Burdett Road Surges to the Forefront in Triumph Betting Odds
Burdett Road stamped himself a serious Triumph Hurdle contender when winning the Grade 2 JCB Triumph Trial Juvenile Hurdle.
A winner of a Royal Ascot handicap on quick ground this summer. You had wonder how soft ground at Cheltenham would suit. Well, its suited him just fine. He travelled beautifully in the rear and after taking it up on the run in the quickened clear of his rivals for an impressive success.
All roads now lead to the final day of the Cheltenham Festival. Whether he’s up to beating the best of the Irish juveniles only time will tell. He’ll certainly need to brush up his jumping to do so, However, I doubt we’ll see a better British trained juvenile hurdler all season.
The ground conditions were slightly more challenging than the official going description indicates. Consequently, Burdett Road's performance is particularly noteworthy, especially considering the apparent acceleration he demonstrated after the last hurdle. I say apparent because I haven’t seen the sectionals for the race.
Broadway Boy Grinds Out Novice Chase Success
Broadway Boy showcased true grit as he clinched a hard-fought victory in the Listed Novices’ Chase (3m ½ f). Despite being the youngest among the six runners, he led from the front and displayed resilience, even overcoming a heart-stopping moment at the last ditch to secure a decisive win. While he dictated the pace, one notable mistake aside, his overall jumping performance was solid.
A genuine stayer, Broadway Boy's suitability for beating the top Irish novices in the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase remains uncertain. Given his performance on Saturday, it's evident that the National Hunt Chase (3m 6f) might align more favourably with his to his strengthens than the shorter distance race.
Monday Preview
I've never been to Exeter racecourse, but there's something about the racing there that I find appealing. They race on Monday, and while it might not be the best of cards, I've taken a quick look at it.
The standout race on Monday is the Listed Exeter Mares' Novices' Chase (3:00), with £16,881 on offer to the winner.
Exeter
3:00 – Trainer Harry Fry has experienced a dry spell, with 12 runners and 15 days since his last win. However, it's worth noting that he boasts a commendable record of 4 winners from 8 runners, with a positive +10 in non-handicap chases at Exeter over the past 5 years.
In this race, Fry saddles Lady Adare, who secured a victory in a Worcester mares novice chase on her second start over fences. Subsequently, she finished a respectable 4 ¼ lengths second of 6 to Knappers Hill in a Grade 2 at Wincanton. Despite likely flattered to get as close to smart novice chaser in the winner, Lady Adare's performance suggests she can hold her own, now back against her own sex.
3:00 – Paul Nicholls is 6 from 13 46% +5.15, 8 placed with his chasers here in the past 2 years. Nicholls saddles Makin'yourmindup. The trainer expressed optimism about the horse in his Racing Post Stable Tour, describing it as
“A big, scopey sort who looks a decent prospect for novice chases. He showed progressive form in novice hurdles, winning a Grade 2 at Haydock, but to look at him he needs fences to bring out the best in him”.
He appears to be the standout contender on his chase debut. Nonetheless, there are intriguing rivals in the mix, each with the potential to excel over larger obstacles. Notable mentions include Wiseguy, set to make his chase debut over 3m under Nicky Henderson's guidance, along with chase debutants Just A Dime and Pimlico Point, both bred for jumping fences. Among those with prior chase experience, Storminhome displayed promise on his debut at Huntingdon three weeks ago and has the capability for improvement.
Leicester
1:30 – Spago couldn't secure a win in his three starts over hurdles last season, prompting a quick transition to fences by his connections. His chase debut at Kempton last month, where he finished a 7 length 4th of 7, showcased plenty of promise. The 6-year-old found the 2m 2f distance around Kempton to be too sharp, and an improved performance is anticipated with the step up to 2m 6 ½ f. Trainer Fergal O'Brien has a commendable record at Leicester, boasting a 40% success rate with 6 wins from 15 starts, resulting in a positive +3.92 in the past 2 years, with his handicap chasers at the course.
Monday Selection:
Of all the good races on offer yesterday’s selection ran in the bumper that concluded the Cheltenham card. I really fancied Brechin Castle to do the business and he didn’t let me or his backers down.
Breckin Castle emerges as a promising prospect, and connections have set ambitious targets for him in the New Year.
Onto today’s selection. It’s a decision between Makin'yourmindup and Spago as today's pick is challenging, and the choice is ultimately price dependent. Both are 11/4 at the time of writing and I’ll be looking for a bit better on the exchanges tomorrow. I will also be seeking 3/1 about Lady Adare who was 9/4 on Sunday evening.
Personally, I prefer not to bet on horses with odds below 3/1. While there are exceptions, when I will back one at shorter odds. My strategy is to minimize such bets.
Exeter
3:30 – Makin'yourmindup.
Good luck with your Monday bets.
John