Hi all,
In today's main feature, I kick off my preview of the upcoming Saturday's major races with a look at Saturday’s Betfair Stayers Handicap Hurdle at Haydock. Plus, I preview this afternoon’s Veterans Chase Series race at Warwick.
Season-Ending Setback for Rising Star Iroko
Iroko, a 10-1 contender for both the Turners Novices’ Chase and Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase, is sidelined for the season due to a foot injury. The five-year-old marked a significant milestone for trainers Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero with their first Cheltenham Festival victory in the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle last season.
This unfortunate setback is a significant blow to the promising training partnership, especially after Iroko's impressive debut over fences with a win at Warwick.
His absence also deals a blow to the British novice chase scene, which can scarcely afford to lose another potential star. Following in the footsteps of Energumene, Iroko becomes the second big name ruled out for the season, and unfortunately, he won't be the last.
Previewing the Weekend's Horse Racing Action
Saturday marks Betfair Chase day at Haydock (3:00), a prestigious contest with an illustrious roll of honour including notable champions like Imperial Commander, Kauto Star, and A Plus Tard, all of whom have triumphed in this Grade contest.
As of Monday’s final, confirmation stage, six contenders remain in the spotlight for Saturday’s big race, featuring last year's winner Protektorat, Shishkin, and, weather permitting, Bravemansgame.
Haydock's undercard boasts quality as well. The Betfair ‘Serial Winners' Stayers' Handicap Hurdle (2:20) anticipates a competitive field, vying for a winner's purse of £71,188.
Meanwhile, Ascot is on its second day of racing, showcasing the Grade 2 1965 Chase (1:30) and the Grade 2 Coral Hurdle (2:05) as the feature races. A lucrative handicap chase (3:15) adds to the excitement, and hopefully a decent sized field. Twelve months ago, the meeting was blighted by high profile non-runners due quick ground. That shouldn’t be the case this time around.
Punchestown joins the action with Grade 1 action, featuring the Unibet Morgiana Hurdle. Defending champion State Man and Ballymore winner Impaire Et Passe, unbeaten over hurdles, headline the entries.
ITV Racing will broadcast four races from Haydock and three from Ascot as part of an exhilarating seven-race lineup.
Haydock: Betfair ‘Serial Winners' Stayers' Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap)
Taking place annually on the same day as the Betfair Chase in November at Haydock racecourse, the Betfair Stayers Handicap Hurdle is open to runners aged four or older. Run over a distance of three miles and half a furlong, the race has evolved from the use of fixed brush hurdles between 2007 and 2016 to standard hurdles. In 2011, the race attained Grade 3 status.
Trends:
Given that the race was run over the fixed brush hurdles until 2017, a decision must be made on whether to incorporate those results into the trends analysis. Personally, I choose to include them for what it's worth.
Since 2008 the race trends include 15 winners from 229 runners, 54 placed.
For those who rely on trends to narrow down potential contenders, this race proves to be particularly insightful.
All 15 winners shared the following traits:
Odds SP: 16/1 or shorter.
No less than -3lbs vs ave OR.
Maximum Distance Won – 2m 3 ½ f & 3m1f.
Wins At The Distance – 0.
Best In Last Three Runs: 1st, 2nd, or 3rd
Achieved an RPR of 138+ (Career).
That’s 15 winners from 59 runners +77.5, 25 placed.
Fourteen winners also had 1+ win on the prevailing ground. Those with 0 wins on the going are 1 winner from 83 runners -76, 16 placed. Sam Spinner in 2017 is the only winner to have defied the latter stat.
An interesting extra stat. Nine of the 15 winners were in the first five in the weights – 9 winners from 79 runners +3.5, 18 placed.
As of the final confirmation stage on Monday, twenty contenders remain in the race. With £125,000 in guaranteed prize money up for grabs, the expectation is that at least 14 runners will line up on the day.
Slate Lane and Crambo in Battle for Favouritism
Trainer Emmet Mullins and owner Paul Byrne have Slate Lane sharing favoritism with recent Aintree winner Crambo. In contrast to the owner's recent Greatwood runner, Slate Lane boasts more robust credentials with victories in his last two starts. His latest triumph at Newton Abbot 75 days ago marked a career-best performance for the 5-year-old. Despite a 14lb increase in ratings following that success, Slate Lane displayed ample potential at the finish, making another victory well within reach.
Crambo won of the EBF Final at Sandown last season, before running down the field in a Grade 1 at Aintree. Sent off a well supported 11/8 favourite he made a strong comeback under a confident ride after a seven-month break. Waited with, he made smooth headway 2f out, and ultimately secured a comfortable victory. A 6lb rise looks workable as he remains open to more improvement.
Santos Blue, a 2 ¼ length runner-up to Crambo in his recent return to action, will enjoy a 6lb weight advantage against the winner on Saturday. He’s got each-way claims, especially from a yard boasting a 1-9, 4 places record with its runners in the race.
Considering the form of the Nicky Henderson stable, the prospects of his two entries, Noble Endeavour and Hyland, seem promising. Noble Endeavour boasts a record of good performances in big field staying handicap hurdles, including over the course and distance. His recent seasonal return at Newbury 16 days ago suggested he may have needed that outing. Hyland, on the other hand, secured a winning seasonal comeback at Cheltenham last month, though he may not want testing ground conditions.
Other contenders:
One to keep an eye on is Lord Snootie. Trained by Christian Williams, the 6-year-old has caught the eye on his last two starts, notably shaping promise before a mistake two out at Galway last month. There’s potential for a win in handicap hurdle off his present mark provided he gets a thorough stamina test off his current mark. It's worth noting that both Santos Blue and Lord Snootie have yet to achieve an RPR of 138 or higher.
Emitom, a previous C&D winner, appears to have been rejuvenated by the switch to Alan King. His victory on the stable debut at Newbury in March, where he outpaced Hyland (second), showcased his renewed form. Notably, in his seasonal reappearance at Newbury, he finished one place and 9 ½ lengths ahead of Noble Endeavour.
Wakool is another previous C&D winner. In a modestly run race at Ayr three weeks ago, he couldn’t showcase his best form. A stronger-paced race is expected to highlight his abilities more effectively. However, it's worth noting that he can be a bit of a lazy horse and carrying a mark of 140 might prove to much.
As for Gowel Road, he’s on a potentially winnable handicap mark, but faces the challenge of returning from a 392-day layoff. Additionally, he’s yet to race beyond 2m 5f, although there is confidence that he has the stamina to stay 3m.
Wednesday Preview
Warwick
On Monday Exeter had just 2 runners for a novice chase worth £10,000 prize to the winner. Today Warwick has just one runner for a similar value race.
The absence of these novice chasers from races is puzzling, and you can't blame the ground this year. The situation doesn't seem to improve in the novice handicaps either. Notably, the fields for such races are small, often consisting of 5-7 runners.
As the novice chase season unfolds, a couple of pertinent question arise: How can we inject more competitiveness into these races? Is the abundance of novice chases saturating the horse population?
As it stands this an unacceptable situation.
The Veterans' Chase Series remains a favourite innovation among punters. However, with only six declarations for Leg 10 at Warwick this afternoon, one may wonder if the field sizes for these races are experiencing a decline. It could be a perception, but the smaller number of declared participants raises questions about the trend in race participation.
3:15 – John Sumner Memorial Veterans' Handicap Chase (Leg 10 Of The Veterans' Chase Series) (Class 2) – 3m
It looks like Aye Right has a strong chance especially given his proficiency in jumping fences and the likelihood of securing an uncontested lead. Despite a hard race at Chepstow last time, when he was caught close home, the 40-day break since then may work in his favour, and he has solid claims.
Jimmy The Digger, despite stumbling and unseating his rider on his previous start at Aintree, appears to be a well-treated horse with the potential to win a race off his present mark. His capabilities make him a contender to watch in the coming weeks.
The competition isn't limited to just these two horses. Mill Green, a high-class handicap hurdler, is returning to fences for the first time since June 2021, and merits a strong case for consideration, especially with the Nicky Henderson yard in red-hot form.
Thomas Darby, a former smart hurdler with has had just five starts over fences, shouldn't be underestimated, especially given his recent performance at Chepstow, where he shaped like the run was needed.
Cepage, a smart handicap chaser on his day, has uncertain form due to limited recent starts, but looks well handicapped based on past performances and being associated with the in-form Venetia Williams yard makes him an intriguing runner.
Benny's King, was rejuvenated by a switch to hunter chases last season, winning at Fakenham and producing a good performance to finish runner-up in the Foxhunters' Chase at Aintree. He might need the run but shouldn't be entirely dismissed.
Verdict:
The mix of experienced contenders with various strengths and backgrounds makes for an intriguing and competitive race. With Aye Right's jumping prowess, Jimmy The Digger's potential in veterans chases, Mill Green's return to fences, Thomas Darby's promising start over fences, Cepage's past success, and Benny's King's resurgence in hunter chases, the race promises excitement and unpredictability. The field size may not be big, but the element of uncertainty should make it an interesting spectacle.
Wednesday Selection:
I’m going to the Veterans Chase. I’m taking on the front two in the betting Aye Right and Jimmy The Digger despite both having strong claims. Venetia had another handicap chase winner on Tuesday, so I want the well handicapped Cepage onside. Now he just as easily could blow out but I’m happy to chance him. The other I like is Mill Green from another inform yard and he’s one I could have a saver on.
Warwick
3:15 – Cepage – 13/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes.
Good luck with your Wednesday bets.
John