Hey everyone,
So, I was initially planning to dive into a preview of Saturday’s Betfair Chase, but I've decided to stick with the theme of narrowing down the field in today's main piece.
Sifting the Contenders: More Thoughts on Narrowing The Field
In my recent Thursday columns, I've been exploring the art of “narrowing the field” for those big field handicaps, especially when time is short for digging into the form of 20 or more horses. Today, let's keep going with this strategy.
Narrowing down the field is just the first step. The real challenges come when you must identify the class/form horse(s) and decide whether you're actually going to play the race. It may sound simple, but trust me, it's more nuanced than it seems.
Lately, I've been sticking to the top three, bottom three approach in National Hunt (NH) handicaps. The number of horses I look at depends on the field size:
Depending on the field's size, the number of horses I consider varies:
Up to 11 runners: Top three
11 to 15 runners: Top four
16 to 20 runners: Top five
21 to 25 runners: Top six
26 to 30 runners: Top seven
31 to 35 runners: Top eight.
Surprisingly, I've found success without straying far from the bottom three in the weights.
Many winners have come from this shortlist, but the quest for pinpointing the ultimate winner continues. Progress is being made, though. 😊
Unlocking Race Success: Backing Multiple Horses for Profit
Take last Sunday's Troytown Handicap Chase, for example. I narrowed it down to three contenders: Hollow Games, Run Wild Fred, and Coko Beach. I went with the first two in the end, but it turned out to be a mistake given the race size. In races with 16 to 25 runners, backing three (maybe four) can tilt the odds in your favour and potentially yield a tidy profit.
As a tipster, I often get questions about why I choose two or three contenders instead of just one in a race. It's a bit puzzling to me. If the odds allow, why not increase your chances? Races like the Troytown show the importance of being open to backing more than one or two runners.
You know, I've never actually tried it myself, but I'd bet there are races out there where you could throw your support behind six different horses and still walk away with a tidy profit. It's one of those things that just might work, you know?
My suspicion is that those asking such questions struggle with a high turnover of bets, possibly indicating a lack of adherence to the correct betting bank strategy.
Banking on Bets the Right Way:
Regarding betting banks, I recommend a 100-point betting bank. If you start with £1,000, your bet size should be £10 per point. For instance, if you're comfortable betting £20, your betting bank should be £2,000. This approach ensures you operate within your comfort zone, maintaining a feel-good factor in your betting experience rather than succumbing to fear. Even a series of losses won't throw you off balance, and, most importantly, you won't be swayed by emotions when placing your bets.
Applying the Eric Bowers Method: Halving the Field for Smarter Betting Choices
Confronted with a sizable field of runners, what's your typical response? Perhaps it's a sigh of exasperation, knowing you'll have to sift through the form of 16 or more competitors.
Reducing the field and eliminating the “also-rans” in a single stroke is no simple task. I have outlined one method in this column and here’s another one.
Eric Bowers formulated a method for streamlining the field and excluding the non-contenders using both BHA Ratings and betting forecast. It was to be used in handicap races with ten or more runners.
This technique was shared in an article he contributed to the well-known betting magazine, Smartsig exactly 21 years ago.
During subsequent discussions following the Smartsig article, it was mentioned—possibly by Eric himself—that the method is most effective when there's a significant spread in the weights.
Eric Bowers suggested a method to assess the balance of a race by dividing the number of runners by 2 and checking if the horse corresponding to that number is carrying a weight within a pound or two of the middle-weighted horse. For instance, in a sixteen-runner race with a weight range of 12-0 to 10-0, the number 8 or 9 horse should ideally be within a couple of pounds of 11-0. This scenario indicates a well-balanced race with three distinct groups of horses.
- Below their class
- In their class
- Above their class
Eric Bowers also advised steering clear of races with condensed weights, particularly where the middle-weighted horses cluster around 11-7/11-6 or 10-7/10-6. In such cases, the official handicapper is essentially indicating that most runners, whether at the top or bottom of the weights, are of similar ability. This suggests a highly competitive race with the potential for a surprise result
How Does the Eric Bowers Method Work?
Well, Bowers wasn't pulling rabbits out of hats; he was using BHA Rating and Racing Post Forecast Betting Odds to whip up his own special rating system. Then, like a seasoned chef, he'd throw out 50% of the runners in each race. This move is all about Bowers' game plan—trimming down the contenders, getting laser-focused in the analysis, and, fingers crossed, boosting the odds of spotting the real players.
How do the ratings come about?
No suitable jump races were available yesterday, forcing me to illustrate the method using a 12-runner handicap from Dundalk. On the bright side, the race appeared to be reasonably balanced in terms of weights.
Start by obtaining your weight ratings I use the Racing Post. Begin from the top weight in this case Skontonovski, assigning it a rating of 0. For each subsequent runner, allocate a rating based on the difference in weight from the top weight. For example, Notforalongtime is 1, Storm Eric is 2 and so on.
Once you've assigned weight ratings to all the horses, add the ‘the lbs difference’ to the Racing Post forecast odds. As an example, a horse priced at 5/1 with a weight rating of 1 will have a final rating of 6.
You then add to get the final rating.
In the provided table, I've marked five horses that have been excluded from consideration. Additionally, there's a question mark next to Mads Black Angel, as she teeters on the edge. The dilemma arises: should she be retained, or should she join the five horses already eliminated? Personally I would eliminate but others may not.
Boom! Easy as pie, right? In just about 4 minutes, with a bit of practice, you've given that race the once-over, Eric Bowers style. Cutting the field right in half. Then the ball's in your court as to how you play the race.
Update: The Bowers ratings really showed their strength in the Dundalk race, placing three of the top six qualifiers in the first four spots, and Morning Approach taking the win at 9/1. And just to clarify, I didn't cherry-pick the race I had chosen it on Tuesday as the best example.
Alright, let's break down the simplicity of Eric Bowers' method.
It’s a nifty trick to weed out the no-hopers in big field handicaps. It's like your own personal shortcut to contender town, offering a snappy and systematic way to sift through the field. The best part? It really shines in races with ten plus runners.
There’s no quick fix. it's a long-haul game. Sure, there will be races where your chosen qualifiers don't win but that's cool. Bowers was onto something – think marathon, not sprint. Keep applying the method consistently, and voilà! Over time, you'll notice your assessments hitting the bullseye more often the not.
It's like Bowers left us with a roadmap to steady success and a knack for spotting those prime betting opportunities.
Thursday Preview
In the beginners' chase at Thurles (12:10), we'll see the debut of high-class staying hurdler Klassical Dream over fences. Despite the late start for this Willie Mullins-trained nine-year-old, its anticipated that he can make winning over the larger obstacles.
Meanwhile, Market Rasen takes centre stage with a Pertemps Hurdle Series Qualifier at 1:40. Despite the good-to-soft ground and a generous £16,338 prize awaiting the winner, the turnout falls disappointingly short. This raises valid questions about the series' sustainability. David Jennings of the Racing Post has suggested scrapping the series in favour of a single 3m handicap hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival, a proposal that gains merit upon reflection.
I don't say this often, but you could make a case for Wolverhampton having the best card today, featuring a couple of seriously competitive-looking handicaps.
Thursday Selection:
I’m going to Market Rasen for today’s selection and it’s from the Pertemps Qualifier.
Market Rasen
1:40 – Spike Jones was an improving staying handicap hurdler last season winning twice at Fontwell and ending the campaign with an improved neck 2nd of 7 at Kelso. However, he faces the task of rebounding from a lacklustre seasonal debut at Cheltenham last month. This marked his first appearance since undergoing a breathing operation, and the hope is that he simply needed the run. Adam Wedge takes over the saddle and he heads here for just the one ride on the bottom weight. It will be interesting to see how he goes in the pre-race betting. The 8/1 available with Bet365 look fair enough to me but I will be looking to get 10s on the exchanges.
Spike Jones – 8/1 @ Bet365
Good luck with your Thursday bets.
John