Hi all,
In today’s main piece I complete my recap of the weekend’s action by looking at Fairyhouse’s two day meeting. Plus, you’ll find two for the tracker.
The weather is gloomy, the midweek racing is just as bad, and the future of British horse racing is even gloomier.
Frankie Dettori – First Casualty in the Jungle of Declining Horse Racing Popularity
In a grim revelation of horse racing's dwindling relevance, Frankie Dettori found himself the first to exit “I’m A Celebrity Get Me Out Of Here.” Frankie’s early exit highlights the sport's fading presence in the public consciousness.
Racing's Shrinking Bubble – A Sport Losing its Grip
Once a stalwart in the eyes of the public, horse racing now struggles for recognition, with even renowned personalities like Frankie Dettori being quickly dumped.
The Affordability Petition, a last gasp and feeble attempt to revive interest, stands side by side with petitions for other inconsequential matters.
Yes, the magic 100,000 figure was finally reached but take away those who work in the industry and what have you left.
Racing's Descent – A Bleak Future Ahead
The ailing horse racing industry grapples with multiple challenges, from meagre prize money and excessive meetings to subpar racecourse facilities. Without the lifeline of media rights, nearly 40% of British racecourses would face extinction. The smaller venues are on life support. Does anyone really believe that Carlisle would have raced on Sunday if there were no media rights money on offer?
Liquidity Drain – The Ebbing Flow of Morning Bets
In a stark shift from the past, liquidity in horse racing bets on the exchanges has dramatically dwindled. What was once a vibrant market now only shows signs of life just before the races are off.
The excellent Barstewards podcast, you can listen here (31 mins, 50 secs in), sounds an ominous alarm. In stats from the Gambling Commission derived from bookmakers' data they found since affordability checks were introduced, betting turnover is down 27% on the exchanges, or 7.3% for this year alone.
Racing's Grim Reality – A Dying Industry Ignored by Big Corp
Even more alarming bookmaker online slots are up 8.6% and online racing turnover is down 8.3%
Despite the rhetoric, the numbers don't lie – betting turnover on horse racing is plummeting, while slots enjoy a surge.
Big gambling corporations show little interest in the survival of horse racing, as the sport struggles to capture the attention of younger punters who are increasingly drawn to slots.
A World Apart: Japan's Exclusive Model Leaves British Horse Racing Envious
While horse racing struggles in Britain, Japan stands as a beacon of success. The envy of the racing world, Japan's approach revolves around the exclusivity of pari-mutuel betting. Strict laws permit only the Japan Racing Association (JRA) and local horse racing associations to conduct betting operations on horse racing, creating a model that now seems unattainable for other jurisdictions.
Missed Opportunity: British Horse Racing's Costly Decision in 1960 Still Haunts the Sport
In a twist of fate, British horse racing passed up a chance to emulate the successful Japanese model back in 1960. The introduction of the Betting and Gaming Act, legalizing betting shops, could have paved the way for a similar exclusive system. However, the Jockey Club withdrew its support, a decision which must rank as one of the worst in the sport's history.
A Critical Choice: The Jockey Club's Fateful Decision and its Aftermath
The Jockey Club's refusal to explore the Japanese-style model in 1960, amidst the legalization of betting shops, remains a pivotal moment haunting British horse racing. Speculations abound about the motives behind the decision, with money, and the interests of major players like William Hill and Joe Coral, taking centre stage. I will leave you readers to join the dots.
Regrets and Speculations: The Fallout of British Racing's Historic Choice
As critics speculate on the reasons behind the Jockey Club's decision, the consequences reverberate through time. Skeptics, many of whom slurp from the big bookmaker gravy boat, argue that the Japanese model could never have worked in the UK. Yet, with the boat potentially having sailed in 1960, there are some of us who believe it might have been the sport's only shot at meaningful survival.
The Final Lap? – A Bleak Prediction for Horse Racing's Future
In a grim reality check, the once-vibrant world of horse racing is witnessing a generational shift. As the seasoned enthusiasts of the racetrack fade into the background, the next generation is abandoning the sport, opting for the thrill of slots over the racecourse.
My ominous forecast is that betting on horse racing, once a genuine phenomenon, is hurtling towards extinction within the next 25 years. The horse racing industry in Britain now faces the daunting task of reconciling with realisation.
Fairyhouse's Testing Ground Unveils Impressive Performances: Highlights from the Weekend
It was genuinely soft at Fairyhouse on Saturday but even more testing on the Sunday. Here are my highlight performances from the two days.
Saturday: Corbett’s Cross Shines in Stellar Beginners Chase:
The beginners chase that opened Saturday’s card will be stronger than any graded novice you will see this side of the Irish Sea all winter. Corbett’s Cross beaten favourite on his chase debut at Naas last month bounced back to winning ways in some style. Granted race fitness helped but he was over trip (2m 5 ½ f) that is short of his best and the further they went the stronger he looked. The further he goes should also see his jumping improve.
The next three home who were all making their seasonal returns and are capable of winning races over fences. Three Card Brag is another who will appreciate returning to 3m.
Monty’s Star is big chasing type who probably needed the run more than most of his rivals. His jumping was sound, he just didn’t have the pace of the pair who finished in front of him. He looks a real stayer and 3m+ will suit.
Nick Rockett travelled through the race well and got slightly squeezed up at the last. Ultimately beaten five lengths into 4th but would have missed much closer. There will be other days for the
In the maiden hurdle (2m), Firefox beat a horse in Ballyburn who was expected to take a high rank in the novice hurdle division. The winner made all and jumped well and just had too many gears for the runner-up from two out. Both the winner and the runner-up are good prospects going forward and will win more races between them.
It was a good performance with the Ballymore in mind for Ballyburn but a poor one for the Supreme, if that’s what Willie Mullins has in mind for the horse.
Fairyhouse Sunday: Triple Grade 1 Action Unveils Surprises
The three Grade 1’s on Sunday’s card saw all three favourites beaten. It looked very hard work and although the official going description remained soft on times it was heavy.
Farren Glory Triumphs Despite Final Hurdle Blunder, An Tobar Only Third
In the Royal Bond Novice Hurdle saw Farren Glory overcame final hurdle mistake to hold off stablemate King Of Kingsfield on the run in.
An Tobar the 5/2 favourite was back in third. The favourite looks a future chaser and didn’t have the pace of the two who finished in front of him in the closing stages. He needs further than 2m and remains the best long term prospect albeit that will come over the larger obstacles.
I’m not sure why Gavin Cromwell ran Encanto Bruno. His best form has come on a sound surface, and he hated the ground finishing last of the eight. Some poor race planning from the trainer after previously running Flooring Porter right handed.
The race had looked a very ordinary renewal beforehand, and I doubt the form will work out.
I Am Maximus Shines as Bubbles Burst for Found A Fifty and Letsbeclearaboutit
The Drinmore Novice Chase went the way of Irish Grand National winner I Am Maximus. I didn’t see I Am Maximus winning this on seasonal return over 2m 4f but on ground as testing this the 7-year-old’s stamina came into play and he put his chasing experience to good use.
Found A Fifty, a Down Royal winner on chase debut made a mistake at the last and had to settle for a good second. It’s hard to say if that error cost him victory but I think the winner had his measure at the last. Letsbeclearaboutit was returned the 5/4 favourite but was a disappointing third. He had looked a natural over fences when winning at Cork on his previous start but faded away at the last. Sharjah never looked happy on the testing ground and finished a well beaten 4th.
Teahupoo Defeats Impaire Et Passe, Unbeaten Record Ended in Gutsy Duel
Last season’s top novice hurdler Impaire Et Passe was sent off a strong favouritein the Hatton's Grace Hurdle. Having his first start in open company you wanted to see him winning this in style, but he had his colours lowered by last year’s winner Teahupoo and saw his unbeaten record go.
Impaire Et Passe travelled through the race well and even two out looked like he would win. However, to the winners credit he’s tough and he dug in from the last for gutsy success.
Given they crawled through the race it should have suited the favourite. You can only think testing ground, and the way horses were finishing off in the earlier races it was testing, exposed fitness flaws in Impaire Et Passe. Either that or Teahupoo has more speed than we had thought.
As for his Champion Hurdle credentials. The way he travelled through the race suggests he would benefit for a return to 2m. A fair enough return to action but I can’t see him beating Constitution Hill in a Champion Hurdle and I’m not sure he’ll prove better than his stablemate State Man either.
Buddy One was all at sea back in a slowly run Graded race. He needs a bigger field and a stronger pace which he didn’t get here.
Victor Value Subscribers Triumph: Common Practice 14/1 Win Sparks £110 November Profit on £10 Stakes! December £10 Offer Now Live.
Common Practice did the business for Victor Value subscribers at Fairyhouse on Sunday. He drifted out to an incredible 14/1. Surprising, right? Especially considering the trainer's success on Saturday's card.
Curious about the November results for those who seized the one-off £10 offer to join Victor Value? Prepare to be surprised! A whooping £110 profit to Betfair SP to just £10 stakes. Even in a challenging month, subscribers emerged victorious.
The December £10 offer is now live here and those who've already joined have recouped their subscription cost.
Two for the Tracker:
In yesterday review of Saturday’s Coral Cup I stated that the race should provide plenty of future winners. Two to note are: Shakem Up'Arry when dropped back in trip and Bill Baxter when he gets softer ground. Ga Law might need to drop a couple of pounds to win and like Shakem Up'Arry needs to drop back in distance.
Both this week’s future winners ran at Newbury on Saturday.
North Lodge – Alan King
North Lodge, Grade 1 placed at Aintree when last seen in action in April 2022 was returning from a 602 day layoff when a 9 length 3rd of 10 to Get A Tonic in Saturday’s 2m 4f handicap hurdle.
The 6-year-old looked in need of the run and was outpaced two out before staying on to snatch third. He proved he’s retained plenty of his old ability and a step up to 3m could see him in an even better light.
Interestingly he’s been a given an entry for Ascot’s Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle, but you would think he will continue in handicap company before heading over fences.
The Russian Doyen – Jeremy Scott
The Russian Doyen was another returning from a long absence and shaped with plenty of promise when a 14 length 4th of 6 to Elixir De Nutz. Given the 10-year-old was returning from 621 day break he will be all the better for the run. He’s potentially well treated if he can build on this performance.
All Russian Doyen’s five of his career wins have come between November and February and up to 2m 3f – 5 wins from 12 runs 42% +7.33, 7 placed 58%. Beyond 2m 3f he’s 0 wins from 9 runs, 1 placed. Although he’s yet to win beyond 2m 3f, on good ground he might be able to. The new Unibet Veterans’ Chase Series (2m 4f) could be ideal for him.
Finally, honourable mentions for Bad and Killer Kane for their performances at Newbury.
Bad ran his best race since joining Ben Pauling when a ¾-length 2nd of 8 to Hansard on Saturday. This was a perfectly good trial for the Betfair Hurdle back here in February. A race the trainer has been targeting for the talented 4-year-old. Killer Kane seems to be working his way to winning form. He’s 2 from 2 at Kempton (over 3 miles), a return to that venue over Christmas might just propel him back into the winner's circle. Keep an eye on Killer Kane as he aims for triumph in upcoming races.
Tuesday Preview:
Southwell faces an early morning inspection to see if racing can go ahead. If they can’t then we’re left with just all-weather fixtures at Lingfield and Wolverhampton.
I can cheerfully leave today’s racing alone but if you’re looking for some Southwell pointers, here they are.
Southwell:
12:15 – Hurlerontheditch, looked set for the win on seasonal reappearance/chase debut when falling at the last at Warwick. A 10lb rise is workable albeit he can’t afford to jump to his right like he did last time. Sageburg County made it 2-3 over fences when beating three rivals over C&D 7 days ago. He jumped well that day and a 7lb penalty isn’t insurmountable. He can win more races.
2:50 – Howaya Now, progressing steadily on four starts over hurdles last season. He looked booked for second when falling two out in the handicap chase at Warwick that Hurlerontheditch fell. Back over the smaller obstacles here so it’s probably a bit of a bit of a confidence booster. However, he’s on a workable mark and I think he can go close.
3:20 – Major Fortune, promising over hurdles, looked unlucky at Exeter last time when a 12 length 5th of 16 to Asian Spirit at Exeter. He was a bit unlucky in the run and would have finished a bit closer with better passage from three out. He looks a future winner but the early 6/5 with bet365 I can happily sit it out.
Lingfield
2:05 – Romilda posted an improved performance returned to the all-weather when a 1 ¼ length 4th of 7 at Wolverhampton 21 days ago. The daughter of Kingman wasn’t the best away that day and was denied a clear run in the straight. Looks a big player if getting the breaks here.
Wolverhampton
7:00 – Talis Evolvere, a Pontefract maiden winner in October. The 3-year-old bounced back from a lesser run at Newmarket when a length 2nd of 8 here (7f) 13 days ago. Should be suited by the return to a mile and with just five starts could be capable of better.
Tuesday Selection:
Searching for a potential nap has proved to be a challenging task. I faced difficulty in distinguishing between Sageburg County, Howaya Now, Romilda, and Talis Evolvere. Ultimately, I opted for the one with the highest odds among the four at the time of writing.
Southwell
2:50 – Howaya Now – 6/1 @ Bet365.
Good luck with your Tuesday bets.
John
Hi John some very interesting points but you know has well has me you rep what you sow it’s no good crying now they have had it all and they’ve squandered it just like the dog game that’s in a worst state than racing I used to go to Newmarket and sell 70 or 80 a meeting now it’s 20 or 30 like the man say we’re doomed
Can’t agree about the Frankie thing and the relevance to racing. He had little air time and if you thought about who was doing what, they were all doing screen worthy things. Frankie wasn’t with no opinions voiced on anything.
Racing ain’t dead just yet.
I had wondered whether Gordon Elliott had too many horses, over the w/e, and your comments above made me feel the thought was not unjustified.
The bookmakers are the problem with racing,we have too many meetings daily,spreading what
prizw money is available to thinly…Racing is run for them,take place betting an 8 runner race 3 places paid at ! fifth the odds,how on earth have they been able to get away with it?.Everything
is screwed in their favour.