Becher Chase Preview: Class and the Iconic Aintree Fences

Hi all,

Inside today's main piece you'll find my preview of Saturday's Aintree Becher Chase. Plus, there’s a selection from Wincanton.

Why keep to the better class races?

It’s an easy one to answer. I'm looking for good consistent horses, I find they usually run in the better races. In these races the trainers are trying to win so the horse will run on it's true merits.

I prefer investing in horses that give their best and have the class to handle any situation. It's not about prep races; it's about the real thing.

Personally, that most questionable tactics tend to surface in lower class races at lower class meetings, which, in my opinion, are just bookie fodder.

I got a message from a friend the other day about a horse that was running that that afternoon. At first glance it fitted the profile I liked. It was the class/form horse, a previous C&D winner, and it had won its last race and had a handy low draw.

Everything looked promising. However, it turned out to be a Class 5 handicap. The horse travelled well through the race, attempted to challenge, but he got caught behind the weakening leader and lacked the Class (speed) to escape until the race was over. Finishing his race off well the form book had him down as an unlucky loser.

It's a common sight to witness horses moving effortlessly during a race, only to falter when prompted to accelerate through an opening. These instances often label the horse as an unfortunate loser. Horses deemed unlucky usually lack the tactical speed to navigate challenges effectively, often finding themselves entangled in trouble in running.

While I acknowledge such situations can occur in major races, I find that sticking to better horses increases the chances of them overcoming such challenges. A losing bet is a losing bet, but I want mine to be on class horses, if I must have them.

Weather and Going Updates:

After monitoring frost and snow last weekend, my attention is now back on rain this week. While the weather forecast isn't promising for the next few days, there's a silver lining as the anticipated rainfall at both Sandown and Aintree has been slightly revised downwards.

For Sandown, predictions suggest rainfall between 10mm and 14mm until Saturday afternoon. The current conditions are soft, good to soft on the chase course and soft, heavy in places on the hurdle track. If the expected rain materializes, any good will vanish, and the hurdle track is likely to be heavy, and excessive rain might render that track unraceable.

Meanwhile, Aintree currently reports good to soft and soft in places on the chase course, with soft, good to soft in places on the hurdles/National course. The weather app I consult is estimating up to 15mm of rain between now and the start of racing on Saturday. If this prediction holds true, Saturday's conditions would shift to soft, bordering on heavy. if the rain does arrive it could be testing for the Becher Chase.

Mind you I'm writing this and it's -1c and it's not 7pm so the milder and wetter weather hasn't arrived yet.

Aintree: BoyleSports Becher Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) – 3m 2f

Despite all modifications to the National fences, few contests over fences rival the sheer excitement and spectacle offered by races over the iconic Grand National fences at Aintree.

On Saturday those legendary fences The Chair, Valentines, Foinavon and of course Becher's Brook are in action in Saturday’s Becher Chase.

This upcoming November or early December promises an exhilarating treat as legendary obstacles like The Chair, Valentines, and Foinavon take centre stage in the Saturday’s Becher Chase.

First inaugurated in 1992 the Becher Chase, it pays homage to Captain Martin Becher. Becher, a celebrated jockey, secured victory in the 1836 Grand Liverpool Chase, a precursor to the Grand National established in 1839. Despite facing misfortune in the inaugural National, Becher's legacy endures, immortalized in the famed Becher's Brook.

Before you lock in your bets for this race, ask yourself two key questions. First, does your horse have the stamina to go the distance? And secondly, can they handle those tricky fences with their jumping skills?

If you're saying no to either, it might be a good idea to rethink your choices. Loads of horses don't make it through the tough grind of this race, so better make sure your picks are up for the challenge!

Trends:

All the last 15 winners of the race shared the following traits.

Odds SP: 28/1 & under.

Highest Class Run: Grade 1, Grade 2 & Grade 3.

Wins in Career: 3 to 12.

That’s 15 winners from 172 runners -3.25, 41 placed.

Ok, its only knocked out 90 horses but that’s a solid enough starting point for shortlisting the race.

Thirteen of the last 15 winners of the race had an official rating that was between 1lb higher and 9lb lower of the race average. That’s 13 winners from 139 runners +19, 32 placed.

Horses carrying 11-0 or more are 3 winners from 90 runners -73.25, 20 placed.  It’s one of the races where those horses at the top of the weights have struggled.  Although its worth noting that Ashtown Lad carried 11-5 to success last year.  

Contenders:

Just 17 were left in the race at Monday’s final confirmation stage.  I have a feeling this field might thin out even further, and I'm not entirely convinced we'll end up with the strongest set of contenders come race time. Nevertheless, it's shaping up to be an open renewal.

You can see why Ashtown Lad and Percussion have come in for money in recent days and find themselves at the head of the ante post betting.

Ashtown Lad is just 2lb higher than when 12 months ago which must give him an excellent opportunity to follow up.  

Percussion was beaten 5 ½ lengths into third in last years race and gets a 2lb pull with Ashtown Lad. His form figures over the National fences are 332 and he’s surely going to pop in one of these races sooner rather than later. He looked in need of further when a 2 length 2^nd of 10 in the Grand Sefton Stakes (2m 5f) last month and looks set for a big run.

Highland Hunter might be a 10-year-old, but I’ve always felt there’s a nice pot in him. He returned from a 21 month absence to finish a 2 length 2^nd of 6 to Elvis Mail at Kelso (3m 2f) 43 days ago on hi first start for Fergal O’Brien. He won the London National at Sandown in 2021 and then finished runner-up in the Welsh Grand National. Interesting that connections aim him here rather than go back to Sandown for that race. This trip might be a bit on the short side for him but with plenty of rain forecast between now and Saturday will bring his stamina into play.

Of the rest….

The Big Breakaway finished runner-up in last season’s Welsh Grand National and fell at the second in the Grand National. He wasn’t disgraced on his seasonal return when a 21 ½ length 5th of 11 to Blackjack Magic in Badger Beers Handicap Chase at Wincanton last time. Not the easiest the catch right (1-13 over fences) but the 16/1 with Bet365 is fair enough.

Chambard, the 2022 Kim Muir Handicap Chase winner at the Cheltenham Festival, showcased a return to form with a strong performance, finishing 1 ¼ length 2nd of 16-horse amateurs' riders handicap chase at Cheltenham (3m 1f) last month. Despite a 4lb rise the 11-year-old, excels in soft ground, and remains a formidable contender.

Celebre D’Allen, having secured a 10lb increase for winning a Veterans Handicap Chase on the Mildmay Course, faces the question of whether, at 11, he can deliver another 10lb improvement. While it may seem improbable, the standout odds of 20/1 from Bet365 make him an interesting proposition.

Thursday Preview:

Low key day of sport with Clonmel providing probably the best of the action. 

The big news story is at Wincanton where flat jockey Osin Murphy takes the ride on Lets Do This in the Danny McNab Bookmakers “National Hunt” Novices' Handicap Hurdle (2:05).

I’ve taken a quick look at two of the Wincanton races.

Wincanton

1:30 – West End Boy has improved for going into handicap company this season winning over C&D on his return and following up at Plumpton. Given how much he had in hand last time an 11lb rise doesn’t look insurmountable. A worthy favourite but I can’t back an odds-on shot in a handicap.

At bigger odds I prefer Aurigny Mill. The 6-year-old won a Taunton novice in March and made an encouraging seasonal reappearance when a 19 ½ length 5th of 10 at Sandown 25 days ago.  

Bang there two before lack of a recent run took its toll he started off in handicaps on a competitive mark. If you can get the 10/1 with Bet365 take it as he's general 13/2 which is more his rightful price.

3:15 – Weatherbys nhstallions.co.uk Silver Buck Handicap Chase (Class 4) – 3m 1f

The most competitive race of a seven race card.  Eight have been declared and you can make some sort of case for most of them.

Take Your Time made a winning debut over fences at Newton Abbot on his seasonal return 47 days ago. A 3lb rise isn’t excessive and there’s a good chance the 8-year-old can follow up.

Eceparti has taken advantage of some leniency from the handicapper to win both this season’s starts at Chepstow. Up 8lb but the 9-year-old remains on a potentially winnable mark based on his back form.

Raddon Top a three-time winner over hurdles at Exeter, secured his first victory over fences at the same venue in January. Nowhere near his best on four subsequent starts after but bouncedback to form over hurdles when a 2 ¾ lengths 2nd of 10 at Exeter on his seasonal return 17 days ago. Just 2lb above his last winning mark and must be considered even away from his favourite track.

Not Sure made it 3-7 over fences when winning at Wetherby (heavy) on his seasonal return last month. Up 6lb for his latest success but he proved his stamina for 3m at Wetherby and remains unexposed over this sort of trip.

Ede'iffs Elton’s is more exposed over fences than some of his rivals, but his three chase successes have come here including C&D. There was plenty to like about the 9-year-old’s seasonal return 13 length 4th of 12 over an inadequate 2m 4f here last month. He’s on a handy mark and the cheekpieces return. Must have a big chance but the earlier big odds were quickly snaffled up by the early bird thieves.

Verdict:

I’m happy to take on the front two in the betting Eceparti and Take Your Time. Raddon Top can be hard ride but the more testing the ground the better for him, but you would fancy him even more if he was racing at Exeter. That leaves me with Not Sure and Ede'iffs Elton who both have good claims.

Thursday Selection:

Wincanton

I was going to go with Ede'iffs Elton for Thursday’s selection, but the fancy prices have gone.  Instead I’m going with one earlier on the card.

Wincanton

1:30 – Aurigny Mill – 10/1 @ Bet365.

Good luck with your Thursday bets.

John