Hi all,
In today's main feature it's my Sandown Preview, I delve into the intricacies of the first day of Sandown's Tingle Creek meeting. Explore insightful analysis, key race previews, and potential contenders to stay ahead in the world of horse racing betting.
But first, let's take a brief examination of the concept of value in horse race betting.
Can You Spot Value in Horse Racing Betting?
In horse racing betting, the term “value” refers to the perceived worth or advantage that a particular bet offers in relation to the odds offered by the bookmaker. Essentially, finding value in horse racing betting involves identifying situations where the odds on a horse are higher than the horse's actual probability of winning.
The Bookmakers set odds based on their assessment of the likelihood of each horse winning a race. However, these assessments are not always accurate, and sometimes there may be factors that the bookmakers haven't considered.
If a punter can identify instances where they believe the bookmaker has underestimated or overestimated a horse's chances, they may find value in placing a bet on that horse.
For example, if a punter believes that a horse has a higher chance of winning than the odds imply, they might consider that a valuable bet. Conversely, if they think the odds are too low compared to the horse's actual chances, they might see the bet as lacking value.
That’s all good but horse considered value bet in the early betting may differ from the value pick just before the race is off.
Spotting Value: Key Moments Before the Race
For instance, in the Corrie Cup Handicap Chase at Ludlow on Wednesday, My Bobby Dazzler could be considered a value pick at 13/2 on Wednesday morning. However, just before the race, his odds had shortened to 7/2, negating the value proposition. Conversely, Hidden Heroics drifted to 15/2 (returned 9/1), presenting himself as a value bet in the race.
Those who secured odds of 13/2 on My Bobby Dazzler the night before and those who took 15/2 or higher on Hidden Heroics both had found themselves with value bets.
In the race itself both horses ran well. My Bobby Dazzler was a commendable 3 ¾ length 4th and Hidden Heroics won.
The dynamic underscores a pivotal concept in successful betting strategies, emphasizing the importance of consistently identifying value bets for potential long-term profitability.
The backers of My Bobby Dazzler might not have collected on Wednesday, but they will make long term profits if they continue to identify overpriced horses as indeed will the backers of the winner.
Sandown
Before I take a quick delve into the Sandown card here’s a further trainer angle you can use for the rest of the season at Sandown.
Paul Nicholls
Paul Nicholls has an impressive 20% win strike rate with his runners at Sandown since the start of 2018. That’s 39 winners from 196 runners 20% +22.78 81 placed 41%. If you had backed all his qualifiers, you would have a small profit. However, you can improve that strike rate focusing on his handicap hurdlers.
The A/E is value, the Exp/Wins is above the threshold of 5.0 and the Chi Score is over 5 which means his results aren’t down to randomness.
He’s got one qualifier running on Friday’s card and its Impact Du Bonheur in the handicap hurdle (3:35) that concludes the card. In fact, it’s his only qualifier over the two days of the Tingle Creek meeting.
Nicholls also saddles Insurrection in the Grade 2 Betfair Beacons Winter Novices' Hurdle (1:50). His record in Class 1 non-handicap hurdles is also appealing.
As some of you will have noticed Exp/Wins of under 5.0 which means there haven’t been enough runners to make an accurate assessment. That aside it’s something worth noting going forward.
Anyway, onto today’s action….
In the Grade 2 Betfair Esher Novices' Chase (2:25).
Albert Barlett Novice Hurdle Winner Stay Away Fay bids to follow up his recent Exeter chase debut success. He needed every yard of the 3m to get up and win at Exeter last month. Changing Man who was runner-up that day was also making his chase debut and can win races over the larger obstacles. That said you would be disappointed if Stay Away can’t confirm that Exeter form here.
Lucinda Russell brings down Giovinco who looked a smart novice chase prospect when winning at Aintree last month. He’s got a good engine and may have more tactical speed than Sat Away Fay.
The other Grade 2 on the card is Betfair Beacons Winter Novices' Hurdle (1:50). Another small field but to be honest it’s what you expect from these sorts of races and if you’re very lucky if you get eight or more runners.
Southoftheborder won here (2m) on hurdle debut 26 days ago. He looked a good recruit to the novice hurdle division in victory and should be suited by the step up to 2m 4f. Trainer Nicky Henderson won this with On The Blind Side in 2017.
Personal Ambition made a successful hurdle debut at Warwick last month. He beat Southoftheborder’s stablemate Jingko Blue at Warwick that day and form has been boosted with the runner-up winning at Newbury last weekend. Trainer Ben Pauling had last year’s runner-up.
Paul Nicholls who won last year’s race saddles Insurrection who looked to have benefited from wind surgery when winning on hurdle debut at Exeter last month. He’s another open to further improvement and the Nicholls record in Class 1 non-handicap hurdles at the course is appealing.
Here’s my take on the first of the day’s handicaps.
1:15 – Best Odds On The Betfair Exchange Handicap Chase (Class 3) – 1m 7 ½ f
Ballybreeze has failed to complete on his last two starts but he’s capable of more improvement over fences. He looks the most likely winner, if his jumping holds up, but whilst I like him a lot 2/1 is short enough.
Gary Moore likes to have winners at this meeting, and he’s won this race twice since 2015. He’s got a couple of live contenders in Kotmask and Hudson De Grugy. The first named built on a promising chase debut when running out a comfortable winner at Plumpton 18 days ago. He’s up 8lb but open to more improvement over fences.
Hudson De Grugy is a bit of a course specialist being 4 from 8 at the track. The latest of successes came in March (2m 4f) from just 1lb lower. The ground the better and he does go well fresh. Might be better over further than 2m these days but very much one to consider with Harry Cobden booked.
Fast Buck demonstrated front-running prowess with a decisive victory at Lingfield last December, followed by an excellent 1 length 2nd of 8 over C&D on his next start. A less prominent ride merely produced a respectable 14 length 3rd of 6 here last month. Hopefully, well see him ridden more aggressively this afternoon and he can go close.
Friday Selection:
Thursday's Wincanton card succumbed to the wet weather, and today's Exeter card has gone the same way. Wetherby's Saturday card was also under scrutiny with a Thursday inspection, and with substantial rain, abandonment seems likely. I’m hoping for favourable conditions at Sandown, as Friday's selection is from the Esher track.
Facing a challenging decision, the dilemma was whether to opt for the Paul Nicholls trained handicap debutant, Impact Du Bonheur, or go with Insurrection in the Grade 2 Novice Hurdle. In the end I opted for the bigger priced of the pair.
Sandown
3:35 – Impact Du Bonheur – 6/1 @ Bet365 & Coral.
Good luck with your Friday bets.
John