Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece I’m looking at Cheltenham’s December meeting which gets underway on Friday. Plus, there's an early Christmas present inside.
Allaho Heads to Kempton
Looks increasingly likley that Willie Mullins will roll the dice and send to Allaho to Kempton for the King George VI Chase on Boxing Day. The 9-year-old didn’t impress every observer when winning the Clonmel Oil Chase last month. However, that was his first start since the 2022 Punchestown Festival, so he was entitled to be rusty both in terms of fitness and jumping.
He’ll be all the better for his Clonmel run and two seasons ago he was the best 3m chaser in jump racing. Kempton will suit his bold jumping and front running style and I think he wins the big Christmas feature.
Last year’s winner Bravemansgame and Geri Colombe are vying favouritism at 5/2. Allaho is now best priced 7/2, was 11/2, before the Mullins news filtered out but I think he should be favourite so even his present odds make him the value play. Personally, I would have Allaho at 9/4 with Bravemansgame and Geri Colombe at around 7/2.
King George VI: Allaho – 7/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes.
BHA Contemplates Trainers' Limit in Handicaps: A Closer Look at the Proposal
On Monday, reports surfaced that British Horse Racing Association (BHA) was contemplating a proposal to limit trainers to four runners in major handicaps.
Whilst it’s an eminently sensible suggestion, it’s not as big a deal as the headline suggests. A closer inspection reveals that in 2023, only three races were affected by trainers with five or more runners. Gordon Elliott had six runners in the Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle, five in the Coral Cup at Cheltenham, and five in the Grand National. Willie Mullins also had five in the Grand National.
The BHA's consideration may stem from Elliott's recent 14 runner presence in the Troytown Handicap Chase. Coupled with the impending reduction in the Grand National field size, it raises concerns about a potential dominance of National by Elliott.
Not Unsurprisingly, Elliott opposes the move.
Any rule change primarily affects Elliott and possibly Mullins. Owners with those two trainers will have to decide whether they want to risk not having a runner in a Cheltenham Festival handicap or the Grand National or have their horses with another trainer.
The Grand National apart it’s a really a bit of a no story.
However, I don’t see why the rule change couldn’t be implemented for just the Grand National.
Considering the unique nature of the Grand National, implementing a rule specific to this iconic race could be a viable solution. The Grand National has seen special considerations before. Tailoring a rule to address the Grand National's specific circumstances might allow for a more nuanced approach, preserving the race's character while addressing concerns about potential dominance by specific trainers.
It’s Ireland that needs the rule change more….
Any rule change as envisaged wouldn’t have much impact on British racing. However, it could benefit Irish Racing.
A rule change like this would in the long-term benefit Irish Racing. Owners would know that they can have as many runners in a race as they like but they can only have four from the one trainer. It would encourage owners to distribute their horses among various trainers, promoting a healthier and more competitive landscape. Otherwise, the Elliott and Mullins dominance will only continue to the detriment of the sport in Ireland.
Whilst I don't object to the suggested rule change, particularly for events like the Grand National, it seems the BHA is addressing symptoms rather than root causes. More pressing concerns, such as the declining population of National Hunt horses, pose a far more significant threat to the sport.
Leicester's jumps card on Tuesday featured just 25 runners across six races, raising questions about the viability of holding jumps fixtures at the venue. If there was no media rights money on offer, would we have seen a fixture there yesterday?
Regrettably, it seems there is a reluctance at the BHA to address not only this issue but also other overarching concerns in the racing industry.
Cheltenham’s December Meeting: New Course Challenge, A Focus on Stamina
Cheltenham’s December meeting gets underway on Friday. Twelve months ago, we lost the Saturday card to the frost. Fingers crossed we should be ok this time around.
Racing will take place on the New course for the first time this season, with conditions soft and soft, heavy in places on the cross-country track. Looking at the weather, it's going to be mostly dry from now until after racing on Saturday. That means we the going won’t get any worse than it is now.
The New course is used for this meeting and the New Year's Day and Festival Trials Day meeting as well as the final two days of the Cheltenham Festival.
The New Course presents a noteworthy feature with just two flights in the last six furlongs of the hurdles track. This course places a significant emphasis on stamina, often favoring hold-up horses.
Like the hurdles course the chase course is more of a stamina test than on the Old course especially when you factor in the uphill finish.
Barry Geraghty summed up well, ‘’The Old Course is all speed, the New Course is all stamina.’’.
Trainers:
I know for plenty of you trainers are a very important consideration when it comes to meetings like Cheltenham’s December meeting. So, here are the top performing trainers at the meeting since 2018.
It’s been a good meeting for Nicky Henderson and Nigel Twiston-Davies. So, both trainers runners need a second look. Indeed, the top three trainers numerically have been profitable to back blind.
Digging into the Henderson winners in more detail.
Eight of the trainers ten winners have come in non-handicap races – 8 winners from 20 runners 40% +14.21, 9 placed. And all his winners were returned 7/1 & under. Using those SP Odds as a filter sees win strike rate increase to 50%.
Other trainers worth noting are Lucy Wadham, Jame Snowden, John McConnell, D J Jeffreys and Tom Symonds.
Granted the above trainers haven’t had many runners at the meeting and the Exp/Wins is well below 5.0 but a 76% win & place strike isn’t to be sniffed at.
It’s not been the best of meetings in recent seasons for Dan Skelton just 1 winner from 16 runners, 3 placed. Meanwhile Champion Trainer Paul Nicholls is 0 wins from 11 runners, 1 placed.
Add Alan King and the three trainers are 1 winner from 36 runners -34.78, 5 placed since 2018.
Twenty one of 36 runners were returned 7/1 & under. Ouch!
It will be interesting to see if the three trainers can saddle a winner this year. Looking at those numbers you would much rather be a layer than a backer. That said Paul Nicholls has his string in excellent form coming into the meeting so he could do much better than in recent years.
Other Stats:
It’s not been a meeting for big-priced winners with those horses returned 14/1 & bigger producing – 4 winners from 192 runners -107, 26 placed.
Horses returning from a 60+ day layoff are 3 winners from 57 runners -39.67. 15 placed and are performing 50% below market expectations.
Thursday Preview
There’s Listed action at Warwick with the Lady Godiva Mares' Novices' Chase (1.55) this afternoon. The best of the evening's racing is a Class 2 handicap (8.00) at Chelmsford which has £25,000 in guaranteed prize money. Across the Irish Sea top juvenile hurdler Blood Destiny is set to make his chase debut in the 2m 4f Beginners Chase (11:30) at Naas.
Warwick
2:30 – Arclight made it 2-2 since going over fences when winning a mares only Listed novice chase at Exeter 24 days ago. The 4-year-old brings the best form to the race and is the one to beat.
Endless Escape was an 18 length 5th of 9 to Arclight on her chase debut at Exeter. The 7-year-old won her first four starts over hurdles last season and not disgraced when 7th of 21 in the Mares Novices Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. Entitled to be fitter for her Exeter run and capable of getting closer to Arclight on more testing ground.
Marsh Wren ended last season with a career best when winning a Uttoxeter handicap hurdle in April and did even better when making a winning seasonal/chase debut over C&D 22 days ago. Looks the biggest rival to the favourite and has winning form on heavy.
Verdict: Arclight handles soft ground but heavy would be a bit of an unknown. She’s got the best form on offer but really testing ground means her likely two main rivals Marsh Wren and Endless Escape are in the mix.
Tuesday Selection:
I'm heading to Taunton for today's selection.
3:15 – Heros made a winning seasonal/chase debut over C&D last month. There was plenty to like about that success and even 6lb rise shouldn’t pose a problem given he’s capable of more improvement. Can You Call jumped nicely when a ¾ length 2nd of 11 on seasonal reappearance Chepstow 44 days ago. He’s 5lb higher in a similar race but is more than capable of winning over the larger obstacles.
Can You Call.
Good luck with your Thursday bets.
John