Wednesday Preview

Hi all,

In Wednesday's Preview, I’m looking at the best of the ITV action on Welsh Grand National Day.

I hope you had a profitable Boxing Day. Es Perfecto was set too much to do in the first at Kempton but thankfully Fontaine Collonges (Wetherby) and Ataboycharlie (Leopardstown) produced the goods to provide myself and Victor Value subscribers with 10pts of Boxing Day profit.

Kempton‘s Boxing Day Cracker

French challenger Il Est Francais produced a Kauto Star style performance to win the Grade 1 Kauto Star Novices' Chase.

Constitution Hill breezed to success in the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle.

The climax of the day unfolded with Hewick making a decisive move to secure victory in a thrilling King George VI Chase.

Shishkin decided to run and displayed enthusiasm throughout. Approaching the second-to-last fence, the race seemed to be in Shishkin's Favor, but a stumble after the jump resulted in his rider being unseated.

This left Allaho leading with Bravemansgame, slightly impeded by Shishkin, in second. Although Bravemansgame managed to secure second by a narrow margin against Allaho, he couldn't withstand the winner's final surge.

Hewick couldn’t go the initial gallop set by Frodon. However, this year's King George VI required stamina, a quality Hewick possesses. Despite being the first under pressure, he finished his race off strongly, emphasizing the importance of staying further than 3m.

The hypothetical scenario of Shishkin remaining upright raises speculation about a potential victory for him, but Hewick's strong finish suggests a competitive outcome even in that scenario.

Allaho could get to the front and didn’t stay a strongly run 3m. Bravemansgame also didn’t have the reserves of stamina of the winner.

Wednesday Preview

The problem with the fixtures on December 27th is the lack of 48-hour declarations because of Christmas Day. Declarations for the day’s racing gradually dribble out on Boxing Day.

Kempton has its second day of festive racing, featuring the Grade 2 Wayward Lad Novices Chase (1:55) and the Grade 2 Ladbrokes Desert Orchid Chase (2:30). The latter, which used to have small fields, is now a limited handicap. The change in the race conditions was meant to lead to a bigger and more competitive field. However, this year’s renewal has one less runner than 12 months ago.

However, the race of the day is not at Kempton but the Coral Welsh Grand National (2:50) at Chepstow. Despite recent heavy rain, the going is described as good to soft, with some expected rain on Boxing Day and Wednesday possibly changing it closer to soft. The expected conditions, though, are not the heavy ground usually seen at this fixture.

While Chepstow has the day’s big betting race, Leopardstown has high-quality races, including two Grade 1 races and the Paddy Power Chase (3:00). The latter race has a huge €200,000 in guaranteed prize money, attracting a full field of 28 runners for this traditional Christmas handicap chase.

Kempton

ITV Racing are showing four races from Kempton. I haven’t looked at the first of them and the other two have 14 runners between them. Editeur Du Gite led all the way to beat Nube Negra in last year’s Ladbrokes Desert Orchid Handicap Chase. However, the change to handicap means Nube Negra gets a 10lb advantage with the winner. The better ground will suit Nube Negra but he was beaten 13 lengths 12 months ago. Even with the revised weights it won’t be easy to beat a back to form Editeur Du Gite. Mind you the latter has been well beaten on both this season’s starts so his fitness must be taken on trust. Boothill won the Wayward Lad on this card last year and has won both this season’s starts at Ascot. He’s the in-form contender who looks to be improving and the most likely winner.

Tea Clipper has been runner-up on both this season’s starts. He’s on a good mark but is on a losing run that goes back two years. He’ll be a popular choice with many punters in the Ladbrokes Get Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Chase (3:09). However, at a better price looks to be Dalamoi. The 6-year-old won here over fences last November over shorter. He was well backed on his seasonal return (11/4) before pulling up in the Coral Welsh Grand National Trial at Chepstow 18 days ago. He was beaten too far from home to think he didn’t stay 3m last time so it’s more likely to have been a combination of him needing the run and heavy ground that explains his performance. Better ground should be in his favour, and I think he can show why he’s on a winnable mark.

Chepstow

It’s a bit of a surprise to see a Welsh Grand National not run on bottomless ground and up until today it looked like that may have been the case. There’s a lot of heavy rain being forecast for the track, as much as 25mm before the big race.

A full field of 20 are set to face the starter for the Chepstow feature. I think the market has got it right. Indeed I will be surprised if the winner comes from those outside the first five in the betting.

It’s boring and unoriginal but this does look between Super Survivor, Nassalam, Autonomous Cloud, Iwilldoit and Iron Bridge.

Of the rest. I liked The Galloping Bear for this race 12 months ago, but we haven’t seen the 10-year-old since he pulled up in the Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter back in March.

Triumph Hurdle favourite Burdett Road will be hard to beat in the Grade 2 Coral Finale Juvenile Hurdle (2:10). Mind you I wonder if he'll run if the ground turns heavy.

Bells Of Peterboro won the Coral Racing Club Join For Free Handicap Hurdle (1:40) in 2021 and was a 4 ¼ length runner-up in last year’s corresponding race. He hasn’t really performed in three starts this season. However, he's 6lb lower than 12 months ago and the application of the first-time visor could see the 8-year-old bounce back to form.

Wednesday Selection:

Bells of Peterboro is a bit shorter in the betting than I was expecting but he remains today’s selection.

Chepstow

1:40 – Bells Of Peterboro.

Good luck with your Wednesday bets.

John