Hi all,
Time for a final look back at the Christmas highlights and a couple of future winners. Plus, there’s a 20/1 ante post selection for the Cheltenham Festival.
Christmas Highlights
Constitution Hill cantered to success in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton on Boxing Day. He jumped superbly, travelled beautifully, and quickened clear. Watching him is like poetry in motion. Barring a fall nothing beats him over hurdles this season.
Galopin Des Champs needed a big performance after a disappointing run on his seasonal return. It was good to see him being ridden prominently. He jumps so much better when ridden that way and I think it also keeps him interested. The way he powered clear of his rivals in the straight was a joy to watch and showed him to be good old-fashioned chaser that he is. Another Gold Cup success looks on the cards after this.
Il Est Francais Très Bon
Despite the performances of Galopin Des Champs and Constitution Hill the standout performer of Christmas was Il Est Francais in Boxing Day’s Grade 1 Kauto Star Novices' Chase at Kempton.
Il Est Francais produced a sublime round of jumping to make it 3-3 over fences. It was a throwback to the 1980’s for me. I loved the way he attacked his fences. He was born to jump fences and he got a little bored on the bends between the obstacles but once he saw a fence he was off again. He handled the quickest ground (it was Good) he’s faced in his career and had no trouble with the three miles. It’s not often you see a chaser these days gain lengths at his fences like this fellow does. It doesn’t look like he will be going to Cheltenham as the French Gold Cup is ultimate target.
Next season’s King George VI Chase winner? I think so. Well, I think he would have won this season’s race. Mind you he could face Gaelic Warrior in December. I would still be with Il Est Francais but if both line up it will be some race. I don’t want to wish away 2024 but It’s a mouthwatering thought.
Honourable Mentions
In terms of quality of performances, it was one of the best Christmas weeks in recent years. In addition to the ones, I have already mentioned above I could have added Marine Nationale and Grangeclare West. The former made a perfect start to his chasing career when winning at Leopardstown last week and is the one to beat in the Arkle at the Cheltenham Festival.
Grangeclare West jumped nicely to beat a good field of novices in the Grade 1 Neville Hotels Novice Chase at Leopardstown. With stablemate Klassical Dream out for the season with injury, he’s now Willie Mullins number one hope for the Brown Advisory. He might head to the Dublin Racing Festival for another run prior to Cheltenham but it’s just as possible that he heads straight to the festival. He’ll face a formidable rival in Stay Away Fay who know how to win at the Cheltenham Festival, but I think he’s a future Gold Cup winner. He’s a best priced 4/1 for the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase with Bet365 and Stay Away Fay is 9/2 with the same firm. I know which I prefer.
Future Winners
Funnily enough I normally have at least half a dozen for the tracker after the Christmas racing. That’s not the case this year. The field sizes for the handicaps this side of the Irish Sea weren’t great and the only one with a decent sized line-up the Coral Welsh Grand National which produced one of the easiest winners in recent years.
Coral Welsh Grand National
Plenty of the runners hated the attritional ground and the others were dubious stayers. Runner-up Iron Bridge was one who stayed and looked in need of four miles. He will need a bit of time to recover from this effort but a race like Midlands Grand National would seem ideal target for the 7-year-old.
The winner Nassalam has been reinvented as a staying chaser and facing heavy ground. On face value this was a Grade 1 performance but given so many of his rivals underperformed due to distance and/or going you would be wise not to take it too literally.
Connections will I’m sure be tempted by a tilt at the Gold Cup. Native River was a good winner of this in 2017 and finished third in a Gold Cup later that the season. Synchronised won this in 2011 and won the Gold Cup the following season. He’d need testing ground in a Gold Cup so you would think the plan will more likely revolve around the Grand National. I suspect Chepstow and heavy ground might be his ideal conditions though.
The Grand National will also be on the agenda for third home Iwilldoit. He was the only one to be able to put it up to the favourite in the straight and it was good effort from top weight. Although in hindsight he was trying to give 8lb to a very well handicapped progressive stayer.
The two best handicaps of the Christmas period, the Coral Welsh Grand National and the Paddy Power Chase were both run on the same day.
Don't Give Up on Panda Boy
The clearly well handicapped Meetingofthewaters ran out a decisive winner. The 7-year-old was only having his fourth start over fences and is still a novice but looks a possible for the Irish Grand National in the Spring.
Runner-up Panda Boy finished one place better than last season and without a well-treated winner in the line-up he would have been a good winner himself. He’s already in my tracker and stays there for a valuable staying handicap chase.
The fifth Amirite deserves a change of luck, his saddled slipped on his previous start at Cheltenham and he didn’t get the best of passages on the home turn. If he had he would probably have finished third. He likely needs further than 3m and is one to be interested in going forward.
Another to keep an eye on was the sixth home Busselton. He was ultimately beaten 12 ½ lengths but the softening ground wouldn’t have suited him. He's down to a handy mark when returned to better ground.
Anway onto the Christmas horses worth following. Interestingly they all won their respective races.
No Flies On Him – Edward O’Grady
It’s nice to see Edward O’Grady having a good horse and he has won with No Flies On Him. The 5-year-old a point winner made a winning debut in the maiden hurdle (2m) that opened the Leopardstown card on Boxing Day. He jumped accurately, travelled well, and ran out a decisive winner. He should stay further than 2m and could go under the radar as he’s with a small yard.
Intellotto – Joseph O’Brien
Intellotto, a lightly raced maiden on the flat, got off the mark at the first time of asking when winning the maiden juvenile hurdle that opened Wednesday’s Leopardstown card. He won with plenty in hand, and he had no problem with the heavy ground either. Talking to Racing TV after this win Joseph O’Brien said.
“The logical move would be to come back here for the Dublin Racing Festival”.
The son of Lope De Vega is an interesting project who will win more races and could develop into a Triumph Hurdle or Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle contender.
Monty’s Star – Henry De Bromhead
Monty’s Star caught my eye when 3rd of 13 to Corbett’s Cross on his chase debut at Fairyhouse (2m 5 ½ f) on his previous start although I didn’t put him in the tracker at the time, but he goes in now after beating four rivals in a beginners’ chase at Punchestown on New Year’s Eve. He was suited by the return to 3m and relished the heavy ground. He jumped well and was suited by the return to three miles. He’s a smart novice chaser in the making and provided he doesn’t need really testing ground is a player for the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase. He’s 20/1 with Bet365 & Paddy Power, only 10/1 with William Hill, for that race and that’s worth taking.
Ante Post Advice: Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase – Monty’s Star – 20/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power.
Tuesday Preview
This afternoon’s action is at Ayr and Fakenham and there’s an all-weather card at Wolverhampton. It’s not exciting fare but it is January after all. I’ve had a look at a handful of races on the Ayr card.
Ayr
1:45 – Dorking Cock won of hurdles on his seasonal return and was still going ok when unseating his rider at the 10th in the Becher Chase at Aintree. This is a drop-in class for the 10-year-old and he’s got a major chance. Up Helly Aa King is now a teenager but he’s 2lb below his last winning mark. Likely needed last month’s seasonal return at Cheltenham and will be better suited by the return to 3m.
2:15 – Aubis Walk made a winning chase debut over C&D 22 days ago. She’s up 6lb but looks the sort to rack up more wins in the North before the season is out. No sort of price but I will be disappointed if the mare doesn’t win.
3:45 – Escapeandevade made all to win this corresponding race 12 months and is just 1lb higher. He should be there or thereabouts once more. Heritier won a heavy ground handicap hurdle in October and has finished runner-up on his last two starts, the latest of them coming back over fences at Sedgefield on Boxing Day. Second start for Lizzie Quinlan and no issues with heavy ground. If he’s ok with a quick turnaround, should go close.
Tuesday Selection:
It was nice to come off the cold list and start 2024 by giving you a winner courtesy of Libberty Hunter’s success at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day.
Ayr
3:45 – Heritier.
Good luck with your Monday bets.
John
Def spoilt with some exceptional performances over Xmas.
If all of those mentioned stay fit and well, the next couple of NH seasons are going to be the best for years.
I can see some headaches for certain trainers (especially Mr Mullins) as to where to place there horses.
We wouldn’t really want the possibility of so many good horses not being able to run against each other due to the prospect of the 4 entries only rule being considered, would we?
Exciting days ahead though, so all good.
Yep, its as exciting a bunch of NH horses as we have in seen in years. Lets’ hope they all stay sound.