Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece I’m looking ahead to this weekend’s races at Sandown. Plus, there's a quick delve into this evening's Kempton card.
The wet weather just won’t go away. It’s been a gloomy and wet Tuesday in my neck of the woods. A bit more is forecast for the rest of the week but there is a hint in the weather forecast that the rest of the month will be much colder and drier.
As much as cold dry weather is more appealing than the muck we’ve had to endure for the last week or so, it does bring its own challenges. Colder weather means low sun, frosts and of course more abandonments.
Follow the Winning Service
Well December was a good month for those who joined Victor Value for a tenner. Forty points profit at Betfair SP (BFSP), and a good profit was also made at early prices. I don’t normally bet to BFSP but if you have missed the early prices and you don’t have the time to bet before a race, I would recommend going BFSP.
If you want to bet alongside me in January, for a one off payment of a tenner you can do so here.
You don’t just get my selections you also get my big race analysis for the month. I didn’t back Shakem Up’Arry at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day or indeed have a bet in the race, but I know a couple who did after reading my race preview.
Betting Banks
I often get asked about betting banks and the start of a New Year is a good time to go over the subject.
I work to a 100-point betting bank. So, for example if you were starting with £1,000 you should be betting no more than £10 a time. If you’re going £50 a bet your betting bank should be £5,000. The more cautious punter who is betting at £2 a time would need a betting bank of £200.
Using this method, you are working from within your comfort zone and betting has a bit of a feel-good factor. Even a string of losers will not unbalance you and, more importantly, you won't be betting with your emotions.
Looking Ahead to the Weekend – Part 1
Saturday’s biggest race is at Sandown. There’s no Tolworth Hurdle on this year card but there is the Veterans’ Series Final.
ITV Racing are covering four races from Sandown and three from Wincanton on Saturday.
Sandown
Just 48 were left in the four Sandown races on ITV at Monday’s final confirmation stage with 18 of them in the Veterans’ Chase Final. That means we are likely looking at some small fields with exception of the later race.
The Read Nicky Henderson's Unibet Blog Handicap Chase (1:50) is Class 2 contest run over 2m 4f. Early bird favourite Georges Saint has won his last two starts over fences. He clearly goes well on heavy ground as both those wins came on that surface. He’s 7lb higher in a better race so needs to improve again but there’s a good chance he can granted a decent stamina test. Trainer Venetia Williams saddled Farinet to win the corresponding race in 2022. He’s a worthy favourite but he also holds an entry for Wincanton (2:40). That is a slightly lesser race than this one so he might well head there.
The Gary Moore trained Hudson De Grugy is another with solid claims in the race. A four time winner at Sandown he can now race off the same mark as when winning over C&D in March. At his best on soft ground there was plenty to like about his seasonal reappearance 10 length 3rd of 8 here (2m) last month. The return to 2m 4f is a definite plus and this has likely been the plan.
Carbon King got off the mark at the third attempt over fences when beating five rivals at Ffos Las last month. He was another who relished the return to testing ground last time. A 3lb rise isn’t harsh given he’s open to further improvement over fences. He’s a standout 15/2 with Bet365 and those odds are worth taking.
Georges Saint – 5/1 (Gen).
Carbon King – 15/2 @ Bet365.
I will have a look Unibet Veterans' Series Final Handicap Chase in tomorrow’s column.
Wednesday Preview
We’ve lost both Huntingdon and Ffos Las to waterlogging and that means the only racing is at Kempton this evening.
Kempton
6:00 – Previous C&D winner Swiss Pride is just 1lb higher than when winning on the all-weather at Lingfield in June. He hasn’t been at his best on his last two starts but the booking of Tom Marquand takes the eye.
7:30 – A London Middle Distance Qualifier. All seven of Buxted Too’s career wins have come on the all-weather including one over C&D. He’s been well beaten on two starts since returning from a break but has dropped down the weights and his yard is among the winners. Andaleep possibly didn’t stay two miles when a 8 ¾ length 12th of 14 here 44 days ago. He’s better judged on his 1 ¼ length 2nd of 12 to Max Mayhen in the Series Final over C&D on his previous start. That was a better race than this and the handicapper has given him a chance. Rossa Ryan – 5 winners from 17 runners 29% +15.75 when riding for the yard is in the saddle. Despite being 0-19 on the all-weather I’m happy to take chance on the 8-year-old.
8:00 – Rossa Ryan has also been booked for Love De Vega whowas a head 2nd of 8 at Chelmsford 13 days ago. He’s just 1lb higher here and this is a slight drop in class so he should be bang there albeit stall 11 isn’t ideal. Tremblant shaped with a bit of promise on his debut for Amy Murphy when a 3 ½ length 7th in that Chelmsford race. A winner on the all-weather when trained in France by Andre Fabre he gets the first time cheekpieces this evening and has each way claims.
Wednesday Selection:
Yesterday’s selection Heritier came in for market support but never got out into any jumping rhythm and finished last of the five who completed.
Kempton
7:30 – Andaleep.
Good luck with your Wednesday bets.
John