Veterans Chase Final Preview

Hi all,

Inside today’s main piece I’m previewing Saturday’s Unibet Veterans' Handicap Chase Final at Sandown. 

Breaking the Chains of Bookmaker Dominance for a Resurgent Future in British Horseracing

The pivotal question confronting British horse racing in 2024 looms large: How can we elevate horseracing and shield it from the precipice of irrelevance over the next 25 years?

As the starting stalls clang open at Lingfield on January 20th at 10:10 am, some will argue that this will be a boon to the sports funding. However, let us dispel the illusion – this is not a boon for the sport; it is a boon for the behemoth bookmakers who harbor an insidious desire to relegate horse racing to the status of greyhound racing.

The proverbial elephant in the room, the bane of this noble sport, is glaringly apparent – parasitic big bookmaking entities. If horseracing aspires to ascend rather than languish in the throes of insignificance, it must emancipate itself from the clutches of these corporate giants.

The time has come to remove them from the sport by charging huge amounts of money to allow them to use the product. Horse racing need not bow to their dictates, nor should it succumb to an interminable marathon of racing spanning 11 hours or for that matter Sunday evening racing.

Banish the bookmakers to the annals of history, and the sport shall find itself on the precipice of a brighter future. Let the sport manage its own Tote, establish its betting exchange, and witness the resultant profits being reinvested into the enhancement of prize money. Such a paradigm shift demands courage and foresight – virtues seemingly scarce within the corridors of the BHA.

The time has arrived for the sport of kings to reclaim its sovereignty and forge a path toward resurgence. Embrace the mantle of courage and vision, otherwise horse racing risks descent into the abyss of perpetual decline.

Looking Ahead to the Weekend – Part 2

The standout race on Saturday is the Veterans’ Chase Final. The race contains plenty of old favourites and indeed I have probably backed all of them at least once.  Run over three miles the race series and of course the final has caught the imagination of racing fans.

Looking at the race trends which contain 8 winners from 122 runners, 27 placed.

Since 2017 three winners have been returned 18/1 or bigger. Last year’s winner Wishing And Hoping was returned at 50/1 and the 2022 winner Prime Venture was sent off 20/1. At the time of writing there are five entries at 20/1 & bigger in the ante post betting. If you do fancy one at big odds the trends wouldn’t put you off. With those returned 18/1 & bigger producing – 3 winners from 33 runners +58, 6 placed.

All eight winners shared the following traits:

Max Distance Won: 2m 7 ½ f and 3m 2 ½ f

Runs in the Season: 1 and 3

Places at the Track: 0 to 1

Days Since Last Run: 11 & 45 days.  

That’s 8 winners from 49 runners +86, 12 placed.

Combining above trends with qualifiers returned 18/1 & bigger and its – 3 winners from 13 runners +78, 5 placed. Something worth bearing in mind or maybe not.

Contenders Vie for Glory in Sandown's Veterans Chase Final

Ten of the 18 entries are on my race shortlist which underlines the competitive nature of the race. The first four of them all ran in a series qualifier at Warwick in November.

Thomas Darby (7/1). Despite being 11 he’s only had six starts over fences and he gained his second win over the large obstacles when winning a veterans chase at Warwick. He had Mill Green (10/1) 1 ¾ length back in second. The latter is like Thomas Darby no typical veteran after just 4 outings over fences. Saturday’s bigger field might suit him better as it did over hurdles, and he gets a 4lb pull with the winner.  

Back in third at Warwick was Aye Right (10/1). He ran below mark expectations after a good effort on his seasonal reappearance at Chepstow. A normally consistent and classy chaser at his best He hasn’t won as many races as he should but has to be respected given his normally solid jumping.

Back in fourth was Cepage (8/1) who left that form well behind when winning in the first time cheekpieces at Cheltenham last month. He’s been hit by a 6lb rise but remains well treated on the best of his back form. Trainer Venetia Williams won the 2019 renewal with Houblon Des Obeaux.

Lord Du Mesnil, Sam Brown, Ramses De Teillee Add to the Puzzle.

Lord Du Mesnil (10/1) was a 7-length runner-up to Cepage at Cheltenham last time. It was a commendable effort by the 11-year-old given 2m 4 ½ f was barely an adequate stamina test, on good to soft ground likes soft ground, given he stays 3m 4f. He goes well on soft ground, jumps, and stays well and must be considered a lively contender back up in trip.

Sam Brown (9/1) found things happening to quickly in the race won by Cepage at Cheltenham. He’s become a bit frustrating but the return to 3m is a plus and if he returned to the best of last year’s form would go close.

Ramses De Teillee (8/1) was a 2 ¼ length 2^nd of 18 in last year’s race and is 4lb lower this time around.  A reproduction of last season’s effort would see him go close. However, this would be the 12-year-old’s first start for 271 days and horses returning from 45+ day layoff are 0 winners from 23 runners. 5 placed.

The form of the Kim Bailey is a bit of a concern three weeks and 19 runners without a winner at the time of writing. He could saddle Two For Gold (14/1) who’s a smart handicap chaser on his day. The 11-year-old has a solid record in January & February with form figures of 11123112. I will be no easy task to win this under top weight of 12-0 but he ticks the above trends and can’t be discounted.

Roughies to Consider

I mentioned earlier not to rule out runners 18/1 & bigger. Two that fall into that category are Boldmere (33/1) and Nestor Park (20/1). The former didn’t stay 3m 4f in the London National here last month. This is more in distance and he’s 3lb lower than when Leg 6 of the series at Fakenham in April. A smaller field may suit him better, but he’s got each way claims. Nestor Park is 1 from 17 over fences but he has placed nine times so you can’t knock his consistency albeit he finds winning hard. On a going day he’s weighted to be competitive but probably more a place contender than a win one.

If you want my final selections for Saturday's Veterans Chase. Plus, all my selections and previews for the rest of January for just £10 you can get them here.

Thursday Preview

National Hunt racing returns to Britain on Thursday at Hereford. The day’s action is completed by all-weather cards at Lingfield and Newcastle. Not one of today’s 25 races is better than Class 4 or worth £6,000 to the winner. The pitiful state of prize money in UK horse racing is laid bare this afternoon.

I know plenty of punters who like solving low grade puzzles, but they don’t do it for me.  That all said I have looked at one race at Newcastle.

The BetMGM: It's Showtime Handicap (6:10) is a handicap for 3-year-old’s run over 6f. Two of the seven runners Wren Officer and Warming get the addition of the first time cheekpieces.  Of the pair the latter looks most interesting for the drop back to 6f on handicap debut. The one I like is Mereside Madness who also makes his handicap debut. He’s shown ability on three starts so far and shapes like 6f will suit on all-weather debut.

Newcastle

6:10 – Mereside Madness.

Good luck with your Thursday bets.

John