Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece I’m looking ahead to a fantastic weekend of racing across Britain & Ireland.
I get Ben Aitken’s weekly email. Ben is the king of trends, and few can touch him when it comes to crunching those all-important stats.
In his latest blog post Ben's put-up Charlie Uberalles as one of his three to follow from last weekend’s action. I don’t seek affirmation from my peers but I always like it when Ben’s puts up on to follow that I have. Interestingly he mentions Perth’s Gold Cup as a possible race for the 8-year-old. I had forgotten about the race, but I had thought the Highland National at the same venue would be a good race for him.
Ben also hopes that Gidleigh Park will go for the Albert Bartlett at the Cheltenham Festival. We can only hope that trainer Harry Fry will also see the logic of going for that race.
Looking Ahead to The Weekend – Part 1
There’s going to be Cheltenham Festival clues aplenty this weekend. It’s the opening day of the Dublin Racing Festival on Saturday. The seven-race card features four Grade 1 races. Cheltenham Gold Cup favourite Galopin Des Champs bids for back-to-back successes in the €250,000 Irish Gold Cup (3.35). Elsewhere on the card Marine Nationale could line up in the Irish Arkle (2:25). His possible rivals include Gaelic Warrior, Facile Vega and Found A Fifty.
This side of the Irish Sea the headline is Sandown’s Grade 1 Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase (2.35). Besides Sandown there’s also a Premier Racing meeting at Musselburgh. It’s the first of two days of racing at the Scottish track where it’s Scottish Trials Weekend. The highlight of Saturday’s card is the Edinburgh National (2.15). That’s one of three races to be shown live on ITV from Musselburgh. ITV Racing are also covering five races from Sandown on Saturday and a bonus of two races from the Dublin Racing Festival.
On Sunday another four Grade 1 races on a bumper eight race card on day two of the Dublin Racing Festival.
El Fabiolo heads the ante post betting for the Ladbrokes Dublin Chase (2.10). State Man will be warm order to defend his Irish Champion Hurdle (2.45) crown.
The highlights of day two of Scottish Cheltenham trials weekend at Musselburgh are the Triumph Hurdle (1.20), Supreme (2.25) and Champion Chase (3.35).
ITV viewers are in for a Sunday afternoon treat with the terrestrial broadcaster covering five races live from Leopardstown and Musselburgh.
Dublin Racing Festival
I haven’t had a bet ante post at the Dublin Racing Festival yet. I do have plenty of interest but there are too many uncertainties about race targets for my liking, apart the likes of El Fabiolo in the Dublin Chase and State Man in the Irish Champion Hurdle.
Here are a few stats pertaining to the meeting.
Trainers:
Willie Mullins tops the table and he’s won 46% of the races. And indeed, the top five trainers numerically are responsible for 80% of the winners at the festival since 2018. That’s tells you all you need to know about where the power lies in Irish jumps racing.
If you’re looking for a Willie Mullins angle at the meeting. Here’s a possible one.
It’s a simple one concentrate on the Mullins runners with one start in hurdles or bumpers who had finished first or second in that race.
As for the other trainers.
It’s probably worth keeping an eye on any Charlie Byrnes entries in handicap races over the two days.
Favourites:
Favourite backers have been in clover at the meeting.
Digging deeper into www.horseracebase.com.
Favourites that finished first or second last time out have a very solid record.
That’s it on the stats front. In tomorrow’s column I will continue my look ahead to the weekend focusing on the races this side of the Irish Sea.
Wednesday Preview
I had two bets yesterday, Haston Clermont, beaten a nose and Fenland Tiger (13/8) who won. A 50%-win strike rate and 31% ROI on the day I would take that every day of the week. However, we know in horse racing betting that’s not achievable. There are ups and downs during a season and the downs can be long, so you must be committed to a long-term viewpoint.
Now my midweek bets on the low-grade racing are being restricted to last time out winners. I know some of you don’t like backing last time out winners. I’m not sure why.
Since the start of 2022 last time out winners have won more NH races than any other last time out position.
Now I’m not suggesting you back every last time out winner that’s a quick way to the poor horse. However, with form study you can find plenty of winners and it cuts down on your form studying if you’re just looking out for horses that had finished first last time out.
The odds of such selections, as anticipated, aren't particularly big. However, with careful form analysis, it's possible to generate a modest profit.
There are thirteen last time out winners on show across the four racecourses. Four of them run in the final two races on the Exeter card.
Exeter
4:15 – Bolsover Bill and Flash Gorcombe are the last time out winners. The first named bounced back to form on debut for Harry Derham when winning over C&D 30 days ago. A 6lb rise isn’t too bad but the ground is likely to be quicker than it was last time. Flash Gorcombe returned to winning ways at Wincanton 19 days ago. An 8lb rise and up a notch in class could combine scupper his chance. Moytier who was in front and going well before falling four out in the Wincanton race, re-opposes. If the ground was softer Bolsover Bill would be of interest but on good to soft, I can let him win. If you pinned me down for a selection it would be Moytier but I’m not sure he’s a strong enough fancy for a bet.
4:45 – In the concluding stayers handicap hurdle there are two last time out winners in Hercules Morse who is returning from a 373-day layoff and Oak Creek who won a Wincanton maiden hurdle 19 days ago. Both horses could be capable of doing better on their handicap debuts, but Oak Creek has race fitness on his side and is proven over 3m which makes me lean towards him.
There’s not much to get excited about on Wednesday. We have 29 races across Britain & Ireland, but I can’t see many solid betting opportunities. If I do have a bet on Wednesday, it’s likely to be on Moytier or Oak Creek but at the time of writing I don’t have a selection.
Good luck with your Wednesday bets.
John
Hey JB.
I think alot of pundits would have made a note of Excelero having watched it travel so strongly hehind Sir Gino on Sat.
I have reservations though, as I was quite disappointed that he wouldn’t go past the French raider up the hill.
Could be that he’s a bit of a bridle horse…a watching brief I think.
A lot did… I think Dave Massey has put him up for the Boodles. I hav rewatched that race and I think you have a point not sure how hard a race he was given though.