Hi all,
It often pays to ignore a poor last time out run and that proved to be the case once again on Thursday.
Quick Draw had run out an easy winner at Ludlow on his seasonal return before pulling up at Cheltenham 17 days later. He was back from a 96-day layoff which indicated that something had been amiss last time. Back in a smaller field and dropped a notch in class, he was back to winning ways at Wincanton. He was allowed to go off at a crazy price at 11/1 after being 9/2 at best on Wednesday evening.
In yesterday’s race preview I mentioned two horses Quick Draw and last time out winner Take Your Time. I went with the latter who was bidding for a hat trick after two heavy ground successes. I went for the latter but good to soft ground wasn’t to his liking at all. He clearly needs much softer ground as he couldn’t really go the pace here.
Putting a line through a poor run can often lead to you winners at big odds. It's beneficial to maintain a forgiving nature in this unpredictable world of horse racing.
Dublin Racing Festival Update
The final declarations for Saturday’s races are out. The field sizes for the Grade 1’s at Dublin Racing Festival is poor to be honest. Three of them have 16 runners between them and only the juvenile hurdle has got more than six runners.
Galopin Des Champ faces three rivals in the Paddy Power Irish Gold Cup Chase (3:35) but they do at least include Fastorslow.
Marine Nationale faces five rivals in the Goffs Irish Arkle Novice Chase (2:25). They don’t include Gaelic Warrior though. Willie Mullins still has three of the six runners having declared Facile Vega, Il Etait Temps and Sharjah.
I didn’t expect Gaelic Warrior to run in the race. In fact, I was surprised that Mullins was even entertaining the idea if I’m honest. However, the “will he, won’t he run” is one reason ante-post markets are much quieter these days.
Future Stars, Really?
The concluding race on the Leopardstown card is the Donohue Marquees Future Stars bumper. You would be forgiven for thinking that race would be about ’Future Stars’. Except the 5/4 favourite for the race is A Dream To Share. This lad won his first bumper in May 2022, he also won this corresponding race last year before going onto win the Champion Bumper at the Cheltenham Festival.
In the Ireland I don’t think there are no specific rules limiting the number of bumpers a horse can run in. Horses can participate in as many bumpers as their connections choose, as these races are typically considered a part of a horse's early development.
The second favourite in the race Redemption Day won a bumper in December 2021 and also ran in that season’s Champions Bumper at Cheltenham.
It seems absurd that horses like Dream To Share or Redemption Day are permitted to participate in these races. In my opinion these flat races for jumpers should be discontinued, particularly considering that a significant portion of the participants in such events come from the point-to-point background and are already accustomed to jumping.
On a positive note, the field sizes for the ITV races at Sandown and Musselburgh have held up. Five out of six entries for Sandown's Grade 1 Virgin Bet Scilly Isles Novices' Chase are still in contention. It is unfortunate that the Irish challenger, Corbett's Cross, did not make the final declarations, which is a bit disappointing.
Friday Preview
There are 35 races across Britain & Ireland on Friday but there is nothing that has attracted me.
Good luck with your Friday bets.
John