Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece I’m previewing the weekend’s big betting race Newbury’s Betfair Hurdle. Plus, you can read my thoughts on couple of races at Kempton and Ludlow.
Looking Ahead to the Weekend
There’s £155,000 in guaranteed prize money for Saturday’s Betfair Hurdle (3.15) at Newbury. The Newbury undercard also contains the Grade 2 Betfair Denman Chase (2.05) and the Grade 2 Game Spirit Chase (2.40). The latter two races tend not to attract big fields but worryingly there were just six entries for the Denman Chase and five for the Game Spirit at Monday’s final confirmation stage.
Warwick stages the other Premier Racing fixture with the feature being the Grade 2 Kingmaker Novices' Chase (2.20). A race that was won two years ago by Edwardstone who went onto success at the Arkle at Cheltenham and last year by Jonbon.
ITV Racing are covering the best of the action from Newbury and Warwick on a seven-race programme on Saturday afternoon.
Before I get into my Betfair Hurdle preview. A quick plug for my Victor Value service. Last year I offered my analysis and tips for the Cheltenham Festival and all of March for £19.99.
This year’s deal is even better, you can get access to all my selections from now until March 31st for the same amount.
For those who joined last year March provided a 56pts profit or £560 to £10 stakes at Betfair SP in March 2023.
Newbury: Betfair Hurdle
It’s Betfair Hurdle Day at Newbury on Saturday. For me the race will always been known as the Schweppes Gold Trophy. Even though the soft drinks manufacturer hasn’t sponsored the race since 1985.
For others the race will be known as the Tote Gold Trophy who sponsored the race from 1986 to 2011 before it was taken over by the present sponsors. Oh, for the days when these handicaps were sponsored by big name companies other than bookmakers.
Whatever the race is named it used to be famous for betting coups. Before all the focus on the Cheltenham Festival it was race that excited punters and had one of the season’s strongest ante post markets. It’s no longer the case and the race’s heyday are long gone. Today’s race is a pale imitation of what it used to be.
Enjoy Donegal Prince’s win in the 1982 race here.
Trainers:
In the last 20 years Gary Moore and Nigel Twiston-Davies have both won the race three times. The first named last won the race with Violet Dancer in 2015. Nigel Twiston-Davies three winners came between 2014 & 2019. Other trainers with more than one winner are Nicky Henderson (2 wins), Paul Nicholls (2 wins) and Jonjo O'Neill (2 wins). Mind you Nicky Henderson is 1-33 -27, 2 places since 2010. Other trainers with notably poor race records are Alan King 0-19, 3 places, David Pipe 0-14, 6 places and Wille Mullins 0-12, 2 places.
Trends:
Prior to 2022 all you had to do was concentrate on 5- & 6-year-olds who had 0 to win handicap hurdle wins. Using those two trends, we identified the previous 12 winners of the race.
However, those two trends have been blown out of the water in the last two years with 7-year-old’s winning the last two renewals.
Looking at the trends which contain 14 winners from 275 runners, 53 placed.
Top-weights are 0 winners from 16 runners, 1 placed since 2010.
Those horses that ran in a non-handicap last time are 11 winners from 96 runners +52.25, 26 placed.
For those looking to use the trends to shortlist for the race. Here’s some trends from horseracebase which found 13 of the last 14 winners of the race.
Contenders:
Twenty-six entries were left in this year’s race on Monday final confirmation stage. Looking at the Official Ratings it doesn’t look the highest quality of renewals. The top weight is Hansard with an OR of 142. You must go back to 2015 to find a top-weight with an OR less than 144.
On Monday afternoon the Willie Mullins trained Ocastle Des Mottes was heading the ante post betting at best priced 6/1. Twice a winner when trained in France. If he runs the 5-year-old would be making his debut for the Mullins yard. Nineteen of the last 20 winners of the race had achieved a RPR of 124 + on their last start. By contrast Ocastle Des Mottes only obtained an RPR of 120 when winning at Auteuil in the summer. Of course, he could be a well-treated horse and that’s the worry.
High up in the ante post betting are solid handicap hurdlers Iberico Lord, Brentford Hope, Lookaway and Luccia.
There’s more….
I haven’t looked at the race in any depth yet, but a handful have caught the eye at this early stage.
Altobelli finished a 1 ½ length 3rd of 9 to Luccia in the Betfair Exchange Trophy at Ascot in December. That’s solid handicap hurdle form and he gets a 4lb pull with the winner. A more strongly run race will suit him and he’s got a nice race in him off his present mark.
Tellherthename has that ‘sexy’ lightly raced novice hurdler profile which has produced plenty of winners in the past. The 5-year-old ticks the above trends boxes and won a non-handicap at Huntingdon last month. He holds a Supreme entry but will only run here if the ground doesn’t get too testing and rain is forecast.
Lookaway was a good 1 ½ length 2nd of 9 to Captain Teague in the Grade 1 Challow Novices' Hurdle here (2m 4 ½ f) last time. Prior to that the 7-year-old had finished runner-up to Iberico Lord in the Greatwood Hurdle. He’s a neat and economic jumper of a hurdle and won’t be far away.
L'Eau Du Sud ran as if something was amiss when pulling up in the Greatwood Hurdle on his seasonal return. He finished a 5 ½ length third in the Morebattle Handicap Hurdle on his final start of last season and is 2lb lower. I suspect he’s on a winnable mark if Dan Skelton can get him back to his best.
Betfair Hurdle Verdict:
The bookies are taking no chance with Ocastle Des Mottes. He could be well treated for his stable debut he’s one I’m happy to take on at his present odds. Lookaway and Altobelli both bring solid form to the race and are big contenders. Tellherthename is the unexposed novice who would have to be respected should he line-up. L'Eau Du Sud is interesting at big odds if returning to last season’s best.
Wednesday Preview
Corbetts Cross steps into open company in the Fairyhouse Easter Festival 30th March To 1st April Rated Chase (2:30). He goes well here, and the booking of amateur Derek O’Connor suggests connections are looking at the National Hunt Chase at the Festival for the 7-year-old.
The day’s most valuable race is Kempton’s Unibet Zero% Mission Handicap (7:00).
Kempton
7:00 – Symbol Of Light has placed on his last two runs and is knocking on the door. A big run should be forthcoming from the likely favourite. Greatgadian is another coming into the race in good form and will be bang there if reproducing his ¾-length 3rd of 13 in a similar race at Southwell last time.
Greatgadian’s stablemate Dragon Icon is another consider. The 4-year-old hasn’t been the easiest to train having just the four career starts. A winner of the first two of them, here and at Lingfield. Fifth in the German 2,000 Guineas last spring, he was off for 8 months before a 7 ¾ length 11th of 12 at Lingfield 18 days ago. He should be sharper for that run and could be open to further improvement.
Rhythm N Rock wasn’t quite at his best when 2 ½ length 5th of 10 to Al Agaila over C&D last time. The break shouldn’t be inconvenience for the 6-year-old who is 2-4, 3 places when returning from a 90-day layoff. One of those successes came over C&D and he’s not handicapped out of this.
Verdict: The claims of Symbol Of Light and Greatgadian are clear for all to see. Dragon Icon and Rhythm N Rock claims are not as obvious, but I think both can out run their odds.
Ludlow
2:50 – Demnat, a winner over fences when trained in France, returns from a mammoth 961 day absence on stable debut for Venetia Williams. Could be well treated but fitness must be taken on trust.
Ballybegg got off the mark at the fifth attempt when winning over C&D 33 days ago. Has a 6lb rise to contend and better ground but that may not prevent him following up
Galahad Quest should be fitter for pipe opener over hurdles at Taunton 30 days ago. The cheekpieces left off last time return and he’s a big player off top-weight.
Can You Call shaped with plenty of encouragement when a 3 /4 length 2nd off 11 at Chepstow on seasonal reappearance. Not at that level of form when a 11-length 3rd of 7 at Taunton (2m 2f) last time but the drop back to 2m 2f probably didn’t suit. Over a more suitable 2m 4f here and is worth giving another chance to.
Verdict: Just the six runners but it’s an intriguing enough Class 3 contest. I can make good cases for four of them. Ballybeg could follow up his recent C&D success. Galahad Quest will be sharper for a recent run and back in the returning headgear. Meanwhile Can You Call is on winnable mark and won’t mind if rain arrives.
Wednesday Selection:
Kempton
7:00 – Dragon Icon.
Good luck with Wednesday’s bets.
John
I’d worry about Lookaway on Sat.
He’s a grand young horse alright, but I’d be surprised if anything that ran in the Challow will be recovering any time soon.
We all love our racing of course, but that race was a hard watch and I for one did not enjoy it in the slightest.
Will the going be heavy by the weekend with so much rain around? That will confound speculation before Friday for me.