Hi all,
Inside today’s Daily Punt main piece, you can read my thoughts on why Premier Racing isn’t and won’t work. Plus, there’s a brief look at Friday’s racing at Kempton.
Small Field Sizes Render Premier Racing Programme Ineffective
It’s another Saturday of Premier Racing at Newbury and Warwick. Premier Racing, which commenced on January 1st hasn’t had the most auspicious of starts due to the weather. Given the deep mid-winter timing, such difficulties were perhaps inevitable.
Clearly January was foolish time to launch Premier Racing. However, the problem with Premier Racing is more than one of timing.
It’s the premise behind the concept that’s flawed.
Premier Racing is supposed to be about “more competitive and top-quality racing”. The field sizes for the seven races slated for live coverage on ITV this Saturday afternoon suggest neither.
Racing fans know that there aren’t enough “quality” horses to service the Premier Racing programme but the BHA clearly no better.
There were plenty of complaints in the racing media that insufficient money was being spent on marketing these Premier Racing fixtures. However, you can't make a ‘silk purse out of a sow's ear’. And no amount of money is going to sell, the Betfair Hurdle apart, Saturday’s racing.
Despite the intended goal of providing more competitive and high-quality racing, the reality of Premier Racing with small field sizes makes the whole programme a dud. It’s mere window dressing rather than having to deal with the real issue. There’s too much racing without the horse population to serve it.
Dire ITV Racing Field Sizes
12-3-5-4-6-7-24 – The figures speak volumes: 12-3-5-4-6-7-24. These are the numbers representing declared runners for Saturday’s ITV races, with further non-runners expected due to changing ground conditions.
The ground at Newbury has gone from good early in the week to soft on Thursday morning. It can only get worse if the weather forecast proves to be correct.
The weather app I consulted is predicting 28mm of the wet stuff at Newbury by the end of racing. It’s could easily be heavy ground for the Betfair Hurdle. Things are not much better at Warwick. It’s currently soft there with up to another 20mm being forecast. This is all based on rain rather than snow. If it's the latter, there won't be any Racing at all, and the disappointing field sizes will be quickly forgotten.
Friday Preview
Another significant downside of the Premier Racing is there’s so little good racing away from Saturday’s. This is particularly noticeable during the winter jumps season. I know the best of the action has always been biased towards Saturday’s, yet the midweek schedule seems to offer diminishing opportunities for top-tier racing action, a trend that's lamentable. Am I asking for too much, to have a double figure Class 2 handicap to bet on each day. It certainly looks like it.
With the first significant snowfall of the winter blanketing my part of Yorkshire, the prospect of Friday jumps racing is uncertain.
Sadly Bangor-On-Dee’s Friday card has been abandoned due to waterlogging. It’s a shame the card has been lost to the weather as the feature race on the card was the North Wales National Handicap Chase. Ok, it was only a Class 4 contest, but it had attracted 14 runners and offered punters a competitive race to bet on.
With Bangor off I have switched my attention to Kempton.
Kempton
Killer Kane won’t be much of a price in the Every Race Live On Racing TV Handicap Chase (3:40). He seemed to be working his way back to winning form last time when a 4 ½ length 3rd of 8 to Inch House at Newbury. He’s unbeaten on two starts over C&D including this race corresponding race last year from 5lb lower. Freddie Gingell takes off a valuable 5lb which means he’s off the same mark as when winning 12 months ago.
Thirty minutes earlier Outside Adesa is interesting on handicap debut in the Visit racingtv.com Handicap Hurdle (3:10). The 6-year-old has progressed with each of his three starts over hurdles and was a 3 ¼ length 5th of 14 in a Taunton novice 41 days ago. Sami Bear is back down to the same mark as when winning this race 12 months ago. The 8-year-old was well below that level of form on three starts in the autumn, but it wouldn’t be a shock if he bounced back to form today.
Friday Selection:
Today’s selection Killer Kane is a 100/30 with Ladbrokes and Coral that price is acceptable but if you can hold on I would be tempted to wait until BOG is available in the morning.
Kempton
3:40 – Killer Kane.
If you want my Betfair Hurdle Day selections and betting advice you can get them for the rest of February and March including the Cheltenham Festival for just £19.99.
Good luck with your Friday bets.
John
John midweek jumps racing is dead I’ve seen the same thing happen to the dog game there is no quick fix I’ve been to huntingdon today it’s the worst crowd I’ve ever seen that’s even allowing for the bad weather
Agreed.
I have spent the last 55 yrs betting on racing and midweek fair has become very incidental (grade 1 meetings apart) and quite boring imo.
I only give it a cursory glance these days and might view the odd race in which a tracker or hype horse is entered. Bring back marbles and tiddleywinks.
I have to say it.
Is Ballyburn really as good at 2 miles as the world and his mother appear to believe?
Last weekend proved 3 things.
Ballyburn and Slade Steel are about the same horses they were when filling the same places (and virtually distance) in their bumper meet up last season.
Slade Steel and King of Kingsfield are still the same as when they met (distance again) last time.
And, Slade Steel, is clearly better over 2.4m (as is Ballyburn in my eyes).
The fav was pushed out all the way to the line, but he wasn’t drawing away, was he? So, 2 horses staying on at one pace and 1 averagely good 2 miler in third and a second fav that bled, doesn’t add up to a Supreme winner to me. Even visually, all of the pundits have been wowed..I mean really?
I’m clearly missing something, there was no, wow to me.
All I thought was…def Ballymore for first 2.
Sir Gino, in contrast, was a wow and if he was in the Supreme, wouldn’t he be fav and wouldn’t most think that he would have too much speed for the likes of Ballyburn?
Look, I accept that on the day, Ballyburn might not have much to beat if going for the opening race, but on the other hand, there just might be others, over 2 miles at least, that could have more improvement, as well as speed, that could be worth another look.
Re: Ballyburn – I think he’s Baring Bingham horse but this year’s Supreme looks weak and that will tempt Mullins.