Hi all,
Inside today's main piece I continue to my look ahead to the Saturday's big race actiom focusing on Ascot. Plus, you can read my thoughts on a decent Sandown card this afternoon.
I commented a couple of weeks ago in this column about last time out winners.
Well, I really enjoyed reading a piece by Dave Renham, a regular contributor to On Course Profits Magazine, on the very subject. If you haven’t read it’s worth a few minutes of your time. Those familiar with Dave’s work will know this man doesn’t leave any stone unturned when it comes to the number crunching.
What I found the most revealing was looking at last time out winners that finished 1st, 2nd, or 3rd in both of their two previous runs prior to their LTO win. As Dave shows, those that are returning to the track within two weeks of that LTO success have been profitable to follow at BFSP.
Last Time Out Winners Revisted
I decided to dig into horseracebase and look at the stats for LTO jump winners since the start of 2017.
As the above table shows the profit to BFSP for LTO winners returning from 14 days or less break is there and the A/E figure even to industry SP at 0.97 is decent.
Using the above trends, focusing on trainers with LTO winners, here are few with win strike rates of 45%+.
Ok the sample sizes are small, so an element of caution must be exercised if you’re going to use them.
Now you might be wondering why I have looked at trainers with LTO winners. Well as mentioned in yesterday’s column that I’m sweet on the chances of My Silver Lining in Saturday’s Grand National Trial.
Well, I thought I would peruse trainer Emma Lavelle’s record with LTO winners.
I was a bit surprised with her record If I’m honest. A just under 19% win strike with a poor A/E which means her LTO winners have been poor value.
And digging deeper into her record and its even worse with her LTO winners in handicap chases.
Just four handicap chase LTO winners have followed up since 2017 and the A/E Indices is even worse than previous one.
Her stats have made slightly worried about My Silver Lining following up her recent Classic Chase success on Saturday.
Will the stats prevent me backing her?
Looking Ahead to the Weekend – Ascot
The feature race on Saturday is the Grade 1 Ascot Chase (3:35). Just were five entered in the race at Monday’s final confirmation stage. However, there’s a good chance all five will stand their ground at today’s final declarations.
L'Homme Presse returned from a 13 month absence to win at Lingfield 27 days ago and is a best priced 4/6. On OR’s he should win this but there is a slight niggle that he might bounce after a big performance last month. He does need to win this to be a serious Gold Cup contender.
Previous C&D winner Pic D'Orhy hasn’t been out of the first two on his last seven startsand should give his running. He was runner-up to Shishkin in last years race.
Ahoy Senor comes alive in the second half of the season and looked to be working his way back to form at Cheltenham last time. He’s not the most reliable of jumpers and maybe better going the other way around.
Fakir D'oudairies won this race in 2022 but was only third last year. He looks held by Pic D'Orhy on their running twice last season. Better ground suits and he’s run better than his fonal position suggest on both starts this season.
Injured Jockey Fund Ambassadors Programme Swinley Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) – 3m
There were 17 entries for the race at Monday’s final confirmation stage. If the fancied contenders do stand their ground, it looks a more competitive renewal than last year.
Dual C&D winner Victtorino didn’t seem to enjoy the drop back to 2m 4f at Cheltenham last time and he should do better back at Ascot. I still think he remains capable of better.
Shan Blue is very treated on his best form, and it was a back to form effort here over 2m 3f last time. The return to 3m looks a positive for the 10-year-old.
Kilbeg King improved when a 14 ¼ length 3rd of 6 to Il Est Francais in the Grade 1 Kauto Star Novices' Chase at Kempton last time. He’s handicapped to be competitive on that Kempton run.
City Chief hasn’t seemed to get home on his three starts over 3m 2f + this season and could be suited to the drop back to 3m.
Henry’s Friend is the least exposed of the entries after just three starts over fences. He’s won his last two and although he’s 5lb higher than when winning at Hereford I don’t think he’s stopped his improvement just yet and must be of interest provided there’s a decent ease in the ground.
Cap Du Nord won this 12 months ago and he finds himself 9lb lower this time around. He looks to have been campaigned to land a pot and this looks it. If top-weight Threeunderthrufive stands his ground, he’ll be 6lb out of the weights and this renewal look stronger.
Thursday Preview
There’s a good card at Sandown this afternoon featuring the Grade 2 Jane Seymour Novices' Hurdle (2.30). Aston Martini, unbeaten on her three starts under rules, will bid to follow up her recent Lingfield success and is the early bird favourite.
There’s another race for military amateur jockeys with the latest renewal of the Royal Artillery Gold Cup (3.05). Farceur Du Large winner of Grand Military Gold Cup at the last meeting will be a short price to do the double.
There’s also Graded action at Clonmel on Thursday where the feature race is the Surehaul Mercedes-Benz Novice Hurdle (2:20). Harvard Guy steps into Graded company after a hat trick of handicap hurdle success at Navan.
Finally, we almost had a dreadful Leicester card. I say almost because the meeting has been cancelled due to waterlogged false ground. The meeting had attracted just 35 runners for its six races with just one race having more than seven runners. Surely, I can’t be the only person who wonders why Leicester racecourse still holds jumps meetings.
Sandown
Besides the Grade 2 Mares’ Novice Hurdle there are three competitive handicaps
1:55 – Etalon made it 2-2 over fences when beating a sole rival at Warwick last month. A mark 0f 131 won’t prove the summit of his ability and should complete the hat trick. Red Rookie ran better last time on good ground but is better suited to soft ground and has each way claims. Gunsight Ridge is a previous C&D winner had yet to make had yet to make his effort when falling four out at Wetherby last month. That was his first start for 14 months. The Last Day needs to jump better than he did when runner-up in that Wetherby race. He isn’t probably as good as he used to be but he’s 2lb lower than winning a valuable 2m handicap chase at Aintree in 2022.
4:15 – Fern Hill failed to stay 3m 5f when pulling up in the Surrey National at Lingfield 25 days ago. He’s better judged on an encouraging seasonal return when a 6 ¼ length 3rd of 10 at Chepstow in December. Three mile is as far as he wants to go and he’s 3lb below his last winning mark. Bretney has placed on all three starts this season. He stays a lot further than 3m, won the North Wales National (3m 5f) at Bangor 12 months ago, and is likely to get an uncontested lead here.
4:46 – Trainer Rebecca Curtis who has 21% win strike rate with her LTO winners and saddles Valens Bruyee. The 6-year-old looked improved when winning a Chepstow Novice hurdle (2m) 22 days ago. The drop back to 2m suited him but there’s a good chance he will stay 2m 4f. Needs to improve to defy an opening mark of but could well do so.
Thursday Selection:
Sandown
4:46 – Valens Bruyee – 6/1.
Good luck with your Thursday bets.
John