Cheltenham Festival Stats

Hi all,

Inside today’s main piece there are more Cheltenham Festival stats to digest. Plus, I've had a look at a couple of races at Catterick.

With just two weeks remaining until jump racing's prestigious Cheltenham Festival, anticipation is palpable among enthusiasts. However, my personal excitement seems to have waned compared to previous years. Upon reflection, I believe this could be attributed to what feels like a saturation point for the event, a sense that we may have reached the pinnacle of Cheltenham hype and anticipation.

February has been exceptionally profitable for me in terms of betting. Subscribers who took advantage of the special offer to join me at Victor Value for February and March have already recouped their subscription fees and then some. With high expectations of a profitable festival ahead, one might expect me to be in high spirits. However, I can't shake the feeling of unease about the state of the sport. It's not a favourable situation, and unfortunately, I don't see it improving anytime soon. In fact, I fear it will only worsen.

While I anticipate my excitement for the festival to grow as it approaches, I can't help but acknowledge that my anticipation doesn't quite match what it used to be. I wonder if others share this sentiment or if it's just me.

Cheltenham Festival Stats

Many of our readers have a keen interest in statistics and trends, so I'm continuing my analysis of the Cheltenham Festival with some additional insights.

All Trends Eventually Get Busted

Whether it's trends or stats. Even if you think you have a good angle into a race and have found a horse to back from it. It’s good practice to re-approach the race fresh if nothing else it stops the angle from dominating your thinking.

Every trend or stat will eventually be busted. An 11-year-old won the Stayers Hurdle (Sire Du Berlais). The last time a horse older than nine had won the race was Crimson Embers in 1986.

Constitution Hill laughed at the stats when he became the first horse since 1971 to do the Supreme/Champion Hurdle double.

Prior to the 2022 festival laying LTO beaten favourites was a license to print money.

Sadly, for layers those LTO beaten favourites have bounced back in the last two seasons.

Last Time Out Tracks:

When it comes to selecting potential festival bets, I tend to avoid horses that have had their prep races at certain racecourses. Cheltenham, being a left-handed and undulating track, doesn't suit all horses.

Digging into Horseracebase I had a look at the record of last time out tracks since 2017.

There are a few racecourses where horses had their prep race which haven't proven to be fruitful when it comes to producing winners at the festival. Ascot and Haydock stand out with just five winners combined from these tracks.

Given Ascot is a Grade 1 track I would have expected to be doing better. But then again maybe it shouldn’t be such a surprise as its right-handed, flat track.

Additionally, Newbury, Kempton, and Chepstow also underperformed, with Chepstow perhaps surprising.

Some courses are less surprising, and I would be hesitant to back a horse who had it’s prep at Exeter, Ludlow, Market Rasen and Taunton.

In summary, while I'm not proposing to use last time out tracks as a specific laying strategy for this year's festival, it's worth considering when evaluating potential festival selections. Despite the occasional anomaly, the performance of the horses based on their last prep races can offer valuable insights into their suitability for Cheltenham's unique conditions.

The Final Word

Last week, the entries for the Cheltenham Festival handicaps were released. However, the real focus begins on Tuesday when the weights are unveiled. It's on this day that I delve into my form analysis in earnest. Currently, I have approximately a dozen or so horses on my radar for the festival handicaps. Once the weights are released, I might consider making my moves, although it's more probable that I'll wait until the final declarations before finalizing my decisions.

Daily Punt Notebook:

Ferny Hollow defied a 791-day absence to win Sunday’s The Grade 3 Newlands Chase at Naas. The Willie Mullins trained 9-year-old is now 3-3 over fences. It was good to see him make a winning return to action. We know he’s retained plenty of his old ability and still has four legs.

He was more than halved in price for the Champion Chase after beating an 11-year-old handicapper who was having to give him 7lb. He’s as short as 7/1 with Paddy Power & Sky Bet for a race which is just 15 days away.  I don’t think he’ll even head to Cheltenham when they can leave him for races at Fairyhouse and Punchestown. Don’t you just love the big bookmakers and their ante post markets?

I Am Maximus: A Grand National Winner?

On Saturday another Mullins inmate I Am Maximus laid down a Grand National marker when winning the Grade 3 Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse. He slammed Grand National ante post favourite Vanillier by 14 lengths and he’ll meet that one on better terms at Aintree.

If you take Saturday’s form literally, he’s going to look like a well handicapped horse in the Grand National. However, there are a couple of things to consider: The runner-up needs more than 3m 1f and this wasn’t his day, and I don’t think the other two horses gave their running either.

I Am Maximus is a progressive chaser who won last year’s Irish Grand National, and he jumps left-handed which is good for Aintree or so would you think. However, his three best chase performances have all now come at Fairyhouse (form figures 2111). For me he doesn’t jump straight enough or quick enough. That said if he’s within 5 lengths of the leader jumping the last, he probably wins.

I don’t think I Am Maximus will win a Grand National and even at this stage I’m happy to let him go unbacked.

Future Winners:

As the Cheltenham Festival and the new flat season come into view, I find myself adding fewer jump horses to my tracker. Instead, I focus on identifying horses that I believe will be targeted at significant handicaps during the spring.

Looking at last Saturday’s Coral Trophy Handicap Chase.

Forward Plan was notably strong in the closing stages of the race, and his handicap mark shouldn't see a significant increase following Saturday’s win. Considering his current form, the valuable handicap chase at Aintree on Grand National Day could be a suitable target for the 8-year-old.

Bowtogreatness showed a return to form and appears well handicapped to secure a handicap chase pot soon. However, despite this good run, the 9-year-old remains winless over fences after nine races and doesn’t seem to find much at the business end of his races.

Sam Brown might be aimed at the Punchestown Festival and the 12 years old might have one more nice pot in him.

Lord Baddesley – Chris Gordon

One horse worth noting from the Coral Trophy Handicap Chase is Lord Baddesley, who finished seventh. He seemed to prove his stamina for 3 miles could take advantage of a potentially advantageous handicap mark back on good ground.

Cruz Control – Tom Lacey

Cruz Control faced a significant increase in distance in the Eider Chase. Despite a patient ride by Brian Hughes and a promising move four out the 7-year-old didn’t stay 4m. With only six starts over fences, there may be further improvement from him, when dropped back to three miles.

Tuesday Preview

Catterick

2:50 – Prairie Wolf is open to further improvement over fences and his 9 ¾ length 4^th of 12 to Ginny’s Destiny at Cheltenham last month looks good form. He put it up to the winner for a long way and must be of interest down in class.  Stablemate Cerendipity has failed to complete on his last two starts. However, he’s just 1lb above his last winning mark and must be considered. Carrigeen Castle is bidding for the hat trick after wins at Newcastle and Wetherby. He didn’t have to come off the bridle to win at Wetherby and 10lb rise in the weights isn’t harsh. For me he’s the one to beat albeit the two Sue Smith’s horses have strong claims.

4:20 – Twoshotsoftequila, went close over C&D from this mark in November and then finished a 4 length 3^rd of 11 to Forward Plan at Doncaster. Struggled in a much better race at Doncaster last time but back down in class is in the mix if the ground isn’t too soft. Mister Bells proved his stamina when winning over C&D 34 days ago. Given the ease of his win a 7lb rise looks lenient and he’s very much in the mix. Dr Kananga was back to form when a 6 ½ length 2nd of 9 at Fontwell 13 days ago. He could get an uncontested lead here. The first time blinkers replace the cheekpieces and he’s well treated on the best of his form two seasons back.

4:50 – Accidental Legend looked slow when a 16 lengths 2nd of 12 at Chepstow (2m 3 ½) last month.  The step up to 3m 1 ½ f should suit the 7-year-old who goes well in the mud and is handicapped to go close.

Tuesday Selection:

Catterick

2:50 – Carrigeen Castle.

Good luck with your Tuesday bets.

John