Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece there are two future flat winners who ran at Kempton on Saturday.
Leopardstown
Sunday's Leopardstown Classic Trials meeting took place on heavy ground, yielding some unexpected winners.
In the Grade 3 “Red Rocks” Stakes, Aidan O'Brien's Battle Cry, despite initial doubts on heavy ground, defied odds of 10/1 to clinch victory. His late surge in the final stages showcased his stamina and potential for longer distances than seven furlongs, suggesting that he has progressed well from two to three. Meanwhile, his inexperienced stablemate Samuel Colt shaped with promise in second, hinting at better over further and on a sounder surface.
In the Group 3 “Priory Belle” Stakes, A Lilac Rolla edged out Kitty Rose finish. Both fillies displayed plenty of resilience and ability.A Lilac Rolla was unbeaten on both juvenile starts, beating Opera Singer on her final start. Both her juvenile successes came on a sound surface, and she raced here like she needs a mile. Better ground and a mile will also suit Kitty Rose. Kitty Rose also looks to have done well physically from two to three. Both fillies look live contenders for the Irish 1,000 Guineas as I think this race will prove to be strong form.
The challenging conditions took their toll on the leading contenders in the Group 3 Ballysax Stakes, with 50/1 outsider Dallas Star causing a major upset. Unlike the previous race, the form of this event may not prove reliable going forward. Odds on favourite Illinois looked all at sea on the heavy ground in finishing third. He will leave the form of this run well behind on a sound surface and isn’t one to give up on just yet.
Future Winners:
It’s been slim pickings on the eyecatchers front since the start of the new flat season and for tracker purposes, I’m going to focus on two runners that raced at Kempton on Saturday.
Rose Prick – Ed Walker
Rose Prick just has a nursery (7f) success back in 2022 to her name but posted a career best on al-weather debut when a 1 ½ length 3rd of 10 Adelaise in the Listed Snowdrop Stakes. The 4-year-old seems to have strengthened up from three to four and although she was in the right place in a modestly run race, I think she can win again this summer on turf. Unraced beyond a mile but the dam's pedigree suggests she will be worth a try over a bit further than a mile.
Chillingham – Ed Bethall
Chillingham is a horse I have a fondness for but I thought the 1m 3f of the Roseberry Handicap would be an insufficient stamina test for the 5-year-old and so it proved particularly considering the relatively slow pace of the race. In the circumstances his 5-length 7th of 14 to Cemhaan wasn’t a bad effort. I believe he will improve with this run under his belt, and when he gets the chance to race over a strongly run 1m 4f/1m 6f, allowing him to settle, I remain convinced that’s there a valuable handicap to be won with him.
Before I end honourable mentions for three other horses that ran at Kempton. Circuit Breaker and Novel Legend are two to take out of the Queens Prize Handicap. The relatively unexposed Circuit Breaker can win a two-mile handicap when he gets more of a stamina test. Novel Legend is on course for the Chester Cup after his fourth placed effort here. He should get his favoured easy ground at Chester and although he’ll be vulnerable to any improvers off his present lofty handicap mark, he won’t be far away.
Finally, a word for Ferrous. The 4-year-old a winner at Wolverhampton last month made it 2-2 this year with a decisive success in the concluding 6f handicap on the Kempton card. The 4-year-olds returned in 2024 an improved sprinter and although he will go up in the weights for this success, he’s going to be a leading contender for the heritage handicap at Newmarket on 2,000 Guineas Day.
Tuesday Selection:
Thirsk provides for me the race of the day and it’s the five-furlong handicap (4:15). Ey Up It's Maggie will be all the better for her recent return at Southwell 30 days ago. The mare is 4 wins from 9 runs, 7 places on soft ground over 5f and is 2lb below her last winning mark. However, preference is for Showalong who shaped with plenty of encouragement on his seasonal return behind one of today’s rivals Zargun at Doncaster 16 days ago and gets an 8lb pull with the winner. Three from 5 on soft ground, he won second time-up last season and is 3lb below his last winning mark.
Showalong – 5/1 (min).
Good luck with your Tuesday bets.
John