Newbury Lockinge Day Recap

Hi all,

Inside today’s main piece you can read my Newbury Lockinge Day recap.

The Group 1 Lockinge Stakes at Newbury was the weekend’s feature race. However, the most intriguing contest on what was one of the strongest Newbury flat cards in recent memory came 35 minutes earlier with the London Gold Cup Handicap.

The London Gold Cup is my favourite three-year-old handicap of the spring because it often produces a smart winner who goes on to Group success, along with other horses who prove to be well ahead of their marks. In fact, if you had backed every horse that ran in the London Gold Cup in the last 26 years on their next start, you would have made £25.72 to a £1 level stake.

More on that race later. First, let’s focus on the Lockinge Stakes.

Lockinge Stakes Recap: A Race to Forget

This year’s Group 1 Lockinge Stakes looked a poor race to me on paper, and it turned out to be a non-betting race for yours truly.

There were question marks over the front two in the betting. Big Rock, who won a Grade 1 on testing ground on Champions Day at Ascot, faced much quicker ground on Saturday and was running for a new trainer. Inspiral had her preferred ground, but the yard’s runners have typically needed their first starts, and she had never run before June. 

The possibility of a boil over was high and so it proved. In truth it was a farce of a race.  Inspiral’s stablemate Audience (same ownership) got an uncontested lead, and his rivals handed him the race. The winner was running on empty for the final furlong, but Charyn was the only one to come out of the pack to give him a race but he wasn’t making an inroad on the winner in the final 110yds.

Audience returned 22/1 was backed at big odds on the exchange prior to the off on the realisation that he probably would get an easy lead.  You can watch his win here.

For older readers Audience’s success was reminiscent of Cape Cross’s win in 1998 when the better fancied stablemate finished third.

Big Rock needs softer ground and looked unfit on seasonal return, if you had backed him, you had no chance. Inspiral wasn’t ready will return to her best in mid-summer and looks worth a return to 1m 2f rather than staying at a mile.

Simplicity Prevails: King's Gambit Reigns in London Gold Cup

As punters we tend to over complicate things and analyse a race to death. Those punters who kept it simple and focused on the yard with the best record in the race were rewarded as King’s Gambit (7/2 fav) won in decisive fashion.

King’s Gambit was always nice positioned by jockey William Buick and he produced a nice change of gear to win the race inside the final furlong.

Runner-up Poniros came from further back than the winner and held every chance 1f out, but he didn’t have the pace of the winner. Long time leader Chantilly used up a bit of petrol to get over to lead from his high draw. He also never got an uncontested lead which made him vulnerable late on, and he lost second close to home. Not that he would have beaten the well handicapped winner.

The Charlton yard has had an exceptional record in the race since 2011 having had four winners prior to King’s Gambit’s success on Saturday. All the previous four winners were also making their handicap debut like King’s Gambit. That means the Charlton yard is now 5 out of 5 with handicap debutants in the London Gold Cup.

King’s Gambit will now be stepped up to Group 3 company in the Hampton Court Stakes at Royal Ascot. Both Cannock Chase (2014) and Time Test (2015) did the London Gold Cup/Hampton Court Double. I’m sure King’s Gambit will prove good enough to win a Group 3 and given his liking for quick ground he can win at Royal Ascot.

Future Form

I delved into Horseracebase to examine the future form of the London Gold Cup participants and found an interesting angle.

If you had backed the first three home in the London Gold Cup on their next run who were sent off favourite then you would have backed a total of 9 winners. Backing all 19 qualifiers would have returned an LSP of +11.64.

Middle Earth's Surges to Aston Park Stakes

Earlier on the Lockinge Day card. Odds on favourite Desert Hero was the paddock negative in the Group 3 Sky Sports Racing Aston Park Stakes. That paddock negative proved to be prescient as he ran poorly.

Desert Hero is a horse that seems to live on his nerves and got very edgy and lost his race before start. He needs to learn to relax if he’s to win again in this class.

William Buick looked to have won the race with King Of Conquest when kicking on between the final two furlongs but he got mugged on the line by Middle Earth.

Middle Earth came from last to first with Osin Murphy opting to keep his mount against the fair rail. It was a wise decision as the gaps came for the 4-year-old because if he had come around the field he wouldn’t have won.

I wondered whether Middle Earth needed further than 1m 4f. He didn’t and showed he had the pace required to win a Group 3 over the distance. Quick ground clearly suits the colt who will be heading down under later in the season for the Melbourne Cup.

Elite Status Dominates Carnavon Stakes

The Listed Carnavon Stakes had looked a competitive contest on paper. Fourteen runners went to post, the biggest field in the race's history. The race proved to be less than competitive with an easy winner in the shape of Elite Status.  Always up with pace, travelling powerfully he scooted clear of his rivals 1f out to win by 2 ¾ lengths from Relief Rally.

I know a lot of people take trainer quotes with a pinch of salt. However, you wouldn’t have been put off by trainer Karl Burke’s comments in the Racing Post.

“I still think Elite Status has a hell of a lot of potential. He's a lovely horse and has been working nicely but I wouldn't want the ground to go any softer than good to soft. Ideally he wants it good.”

It was an impressive success from Elite Status who showed he’s trained on well from two to three. He started last season in great form, but his form tailed off on his final two starts, albeit both races coming in Group 1 races. Hopefully he’ll build on this performance and if he does, he’ll be a serious contender for the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot.

My selection James’s Delight was very weak in the pre-race betting. The market knew he was going to underperform, and he duly did beat just two home. He couldn’t handle the really quick ground.

Let’s Talk Going

Before I end more on the contentious subject of official going descriptions. On Friday the official going description was good, good to soft in places. Looking at the times, there was no soft in the ground, rather it was good to firm.

Let’s compare Newbury with York. The going description for the three days of the Dante Festival precisely matched the times produced:

• Wednesday – Good
• Thursday – Good
• Friday – Good to Firm.

I tend to wax lyrical about my admiration for how well York racecourse is run. Well, they also nearly always get the going description spot on, which is crucial for punters. However, it doesn’t make finding winners any easier.

The official going description for Sunday’s Sky Bet Series fixture at Newmarket was changed to good to firm, resulting in a raft of non-runners. As I mentioned last week in response to a reader's comment, Clerks of the Course are in a no-win situation. Trainers have been saying they want better ground, yet when we have perfectly safe fast ground, they pull their horses out.

I don’t like it, but we shouldn’t be surprised that courses resort to using the watering cans to prevent such situations from happening.

In Tuesday’s column, I’ll be reflecting on York’s Dante Festival, highlighting a few future winners from the three days.

Monday Racing

If you're seeking insights from Monday's action, here are a few takeaways from Redcar and Windsor.

Redcar

4:00 – Elim, progressive on three all-weather starts, made a winning turf debut at Musselburgh in April 2023. We haven’t seen the filly since, and she might need the run here, but she likely remains on a good mark. Her trainer Ed Bethell has a good record at Redcar with a 24% win strike rate at the track in the past five years, including 5 winners from 19 runners 26% +31.42 in Redcar handicaps.

Windsor

7:10 – Little Guff isn’t the most consistent of mares’, but she wins her fair share of races and her joint best RPR’s was achieved over C&D when a ½ length 2^nd of 13 last August. She can now race off 5lb lower and will love the forecast quick ground.

7:40 – Enthused, a five-time winner over hurdles last year, is 1 from 1 over C&D and was a decent 4 ¾ length 7th of 14 to Kotari in a better race at Ascot last time.  Warhol is another previous C&D winner and isn’t weighted out of this if he ready to roll after a 199-day layoff. However, his best form has come on easier ground.

Monday Selection:

It’s a coin toss between Elim and Little Guff for today’s selection. In the end I’ve gone with the latter given she’s proven on the prevailing ground.

Windsor

7:10 – Little Guff.

Good luck with your Monday bets.

John