Epsom Derby Betting Tips

Hi all,

Inside today’s main piece you’ll find my Betfred Epsom Derby Preview.

It’s Derby Day at Epsom!

We have an excellent eight-race card at Epsom, with all but two races featuring at least 12 runners. ITV Racing will broadcast five of these races live on the main channel. In addition to the Derby, those races include the Group 3 Princess Elizabeth Stakes (2:00), the Group 3 Betfred Diomed Stakes at (2:35), and the Epsom Dash Handicap at (3:45).

Betfred Derby Preview

Sixteen colts are set to compete in flat racing’s blue riband race, the Epsom Derby. This race used to be the sport’s flagship event, often serving as a gateway into horse racing for new fans. However, can we still say that’s the case today? I remember when the Derby, much like the Grand National, attracted factory and office sweepstakes, a tradition that seems to have disappeared over the years.

This year’s renewal looks tricky to assess and, at first glance, appears underwhelming. However, from a betting perspective, it looks like an open race. And who knows? Maybe, just maybe, a top-class winner will emerge.

City Of Troy may yet turn out to be a superstar, akin to Nijinsky, and could defeat his 15 rivals by six lengths. However, given his poor seasonal reappearance, it's baffling why he's so short in the betting.  Could we see an upset with a big-priced winner?  Well since 2017, four winners have returned at odds between 14/1 and 40/1, so it's certainly possible.

Trends Analysis

I’ve delved into horseracebase to identify some key race trends since 2008:

Avoid runners with a last-time-out odds/runners ratio greater than 1.

This trend eliminates six of the 16 runners: Dancing Gemini, Voyage, Bellum Justum, Dallas Star, Euphoric, and God's Window.

Exclude runners who hadn’t beaten at least 75% of their rivals in their latest start.

While last year’s winner Auguste Rodin and runner-up King Of Steel didn't meet this criterion, they are exceptions. Ignoring last year, this trend eliminates City Of Troy and Mr Hampstead.

That still leaves us with half of the field as qualifiers.

Trainers:

Aidan O’Brien – 7 winners from 68 runners + 24. 17 places.

Charlie Appleby – 2 winners from 11 runners +23, 3 places.

Fifteen of the last 16 winners of the Derby were saddled by trainers who had a winner in the previous ten days.

Fourteen of the last 16 winners of the Derby were saddled by trainers with a 16% + win strike rate in the previous 14 days.

Here’s my Derby tissue, with the best available odds in brackets:

Ancient Wisdom – 5/1 (11/2)

Los Angeles – 5/1 (4/1)

Ambiente Friendly – 6/1 (13/2)

City Of Troy – 7/1 (7/2)

Macduff – 10/1 (14/1)

Dancing Gemini – 16/1 (12/1)

Bellum Justum – 25/1 (25/1)

Euphoric – 25/1 (33/1)

Diera Mile – 25/1 (25/1)

It's 50/1 bar those nine.

Betfred Epsom Derby Verdict

This year's Derby is wide open, and I see it as a 5/1 the field race. The soft ground has come just in time for Ancient Wisdom. On good or faster ground, I would have him at 10/1. I can’t have City Of Troy and his odds are poor.

The easy surface benefits stablemate Los Angeles, whose stamina will come into play with the step up to 1m 4f, but the question remains whether the track will suit this ‘big horse’.

 I was impressed by Ambiente Friendly’s Lingfield Derby Trial win, particularly how he handled the track as if on rails, which will be advantageous here. I've gone cool on him the closer we get to the race but drying ground is a big plus to his chance.

Dancing Gemini was an excellent runner-up in the French 2000 Guineas, but I doubt he will stay the 1m 4f distance. Macduff seems overpriced, but I would prefer him on good or quicker ground.

If there's to be a shock winner, it could come from Diera Mile, who is equipped with first-time cheekpieces, or from Euphoric, a stablemate of City Of Troy and Los Angeles. Euphoric was just a length behind Los Angeles last time and could improve for the step up to 1m 4f.

Saturday Selection:

Not sure about anyone else, but I haven't felt the need to look beyond Epsom for my Saturday bets. It's rare for me to look at a card and think I could be betting in every race, but this year’s Derby Day card at Epsom has certainly caught my attention.

Saturday’s pick isn't from the Derby but from an earlier race on the card. In the Group 3 Princess Elizabeth Stakes at 2:00 PM, Running Lion is the warm favourite. However, I prefer the French challenger, Sea Of Thieves, who made a winning stable debut in a Listed race at Longchamp on soft ground last month. Lightly raced, she has the potential for further improvement and is one to keep onside. The 12/1 avilable with a couple of firms makes plenty of appeal to me.

Epsom

2:00 – Sea Of Thieves – 12/1 @ Bet365.

I’ll be back on Monday when I’ll look back at the Epsom Derby Festival.

Good luck with your Derby Day bets.

John