Fill Your Boots With Moore and Murphy

Hi all,

Inside today’s main piece you’ll find out how to profit from backing Ryan Moore and Osin Murphy. Plus, I've taken a look at two races from Beverely on Saturday.

Looking Ahead to the Weekend – Part 2

Two of three races that ITV are showing live from Beverley on Saturday afternoon are 2-year-old contests.  I tend to leave the juvenile races alone until Royal Ascot, but I have decided to peek at both today.

With little form to go on how and with horses open to further improvement. How would I approach such races?

Let’s look at the first of them.

Beverley

2:05 – Hilary Needler Trophy Fillies' Conditions Stakes

Karl Burke is top of the leaderboard when it comes to juvenile winners this season – 11 winners from 39 runners 28% +5.66 23 placed 59%. He had three fillies entered in the race at Monday’s final confirmation stage – Invincible Annice, Larchill Lass & Storm Call. Burke has yet to win the race, but he’s only had three previous runners and one of them finished runner-up in 2021.

Richard Fahey has saddled the winner of the Hilary Needler twice since 2018 and has only one entry in Sands Of Dubai.

Michael Dods is 1 from 2 with his runners in the race and could saddle recent Catterick winner Brazilian Belle.

Looking at the race trends:

Eight of the last 14 winners of the race had one previous start – 8 winners from 39 runners 21% 13 places.

Stalls 10 & higher are 1 winner from 27 runners -20.5, 4 places.

Trends Verdict: One career run, and a single digit draw are positives.

2:40 – Two Year Old Trophy Conditions Stakes

There’s £25,770 on offer to the winner of this year’s Two Year Old Trophy. Eleven horses were left in the race at Monday’s final confirmation.

Karl Burke has one entry in this year’s race the expensively purchased colt Wathnan Racing owned Fortification. He’s yet to race but looks a likely runner with James Doyle already booked.

Richard Fahey won this race in 2019 & 2023 and has two entries in Columnist, a recent Chester winner, who is also owned by Wathnan Racing and a more likely runner in C&D winner Moving Force.

Looking at the trends.

All fifteen winners were in stall 1 to 6 (0 winners from 14 runners, 3 places 7 & above).

Odds SP: 13/2 & bigger – 1 winner from 45 runners -36, 8 places.

Horse’s making their racecourse debut in the Two Year Old Trophy are 1 winner from 8 runners, 2 places since 2008.  Mind you just three of them were returned single digit odds. At the time of writing Fortification is a best priced 5/2.

Trends Verdict: Just like the fillies race, a low draw is a positive as are single digit odds. He unraced colt Fortification is the bookies ante post favourite and could be a useful colt. Mind you Richard Fahey knows what’s required to win the race and his possible runner Moving Force looked a nice prospect when winning over C&D on racecourse debut last month.  

Group Race Shorties: A Layer's Dream?

Let’s start with a question: how do horses priced at 2/1 and under fare in Group races?

I decided to investigate using Horseracebase. My hunch was that these horses wouldn’t be profitable to back, but also wouldn’t be profitable to lay. Here’s what I found:

Looking at all Group races run in Britain & Ireland since 2008.

It gets worse if you look at the results from 2020.

What’s happening in 2024?

Can anyone explain what’s happening?

This year’s qualifiers have been a layer's dream, and I can't explain why.

The unusually high success rate for laying these short-priced horses defies the typical trends. Usually, we’d expect a balance between the profitability of backing and laying such horses due to their high win rates, but this year is one big anomaly.

If you listen to the Barstewards Sunday Sermon podcast, you’ll know they have their own theories about why this might be happening. The Barstewards' discussion delves into various factors that might be influencing these results and some of them are provocative. If you haven’t listened its worth doing so.

Fill Your Boots With Ryan Moore and Osin Murphy?

What do Ryan Moore and Osin Murphy have in common?

Apart from the obvious they are also the best jockeys when it comes to riding front runners. We saw Ryan Moore excel on Luxembourg in the Coronation Cup last Friday.  Well, this is his record on front runners.

A 44% win strike rate and £27.43 profit to £1 level stake.

Osin Murphy isn’t too far behind Moore.

Murphy has a near 40% win strike rate on front runners and his profit is even bigger.

So, when you Moore or Murphy on a front runner it’s time to fill your boots.

Thursday Racing

The best of Thursday’s action is once again across the Irish Sea. Leopardstown stages a seven race card where the highlight’s are the Listed King George V Cup (5.30) and the Listed Glencairn Stakes (6.30).

I’m passing over the Leopardstown card in favour of a handful of races at Hamilton, Haydock and Chelmsford.

Hamilton

3:25 – The Weatherbys Digital Solutions Clyde Handicap (Class 2) run over six furlongs with £15,462 on offer to the winner is the most valuable race run in Britain on Thursday.

Glenfinnan took a big step from his stable debut when landing an Ascot handicap (6f) last month. He’s been nudged up 4lb for his Ascot success but remains unexposed over sprint trips and could follow up.

Course & distance winner Illusionist ended a near two year-long losing run when beating five rivals at Wetherby two starts back. Showed he remains in form when not getting the clearest of runs at Thirsk last time. Feasibly treated on back form but needs the ground to ease to win.

Roman Dragon posted a career best on RPR’s when a 1 length 4^th of 11to the useful Democracy Dilemma at Chester (5f) last month. The drop back to the minimum distance didn’t inconvenience the 5-year-old last time but he’s better at 6f (all five career wins at the distance).

Haydock

3:05 – Cool Dividend improved for the drop back to 6f when a close-up 2^nd of 11 on seasonal return/ handicap debut at Doncaster 19 days ago. If he can build on that effort he should be in the mix.

The Good Biscuit, twice a winner as a juvenile, returned from a ten-month absence to finish a ½-length 2nd of 6 at Leicester 10 days ago.  The same mark here gives him a solid chance of going one place better. David Probert 7 winners from 26 rides 27% +22.16 when teaming up with Jack Channon in 2024 is in the saddle which is no negative. The pair combined for a winner at Nottingham on Wednesday.

3:35 – Grace Angel posted a personal best when a ½ length 2^nd of 11 at Windsor 17 days ago.  A winner over C&D last June, from 6lb higher, the filly can race off the same mark as last time and shouldn’t be far away.

The booking of Hollie Doyle for Gemini Star catches the eye 4 -13 when teaming up with trainer Alice Haynes. Gemini Star gets the addition of the first time cheekpieces and is competitively weighted on the best of last season’s form but may prefer some more ease in the ground.

Chelmsford

7:45 – Lord Protector bounced back to form for the first time since joining Ruth Carr when a 2½ length 2^nd of 10 in the Zetland Gold Cup at Redcar 10 days ago. Needs to prove he can back that effort up, but he won’t be far away if he can. The 6-year-old is racing on the all-weather for the first time since winning on racecourse debut at Kempton for his previous yard so should go on the surface.

Endless Power is 3 from 5 on the all-weather and bids to complete the hat trick after wins a Wolverhampton and Southwell. He gets a 4lb rise for his latest win but remains the one to beat. Mighty Nebula is open to further improvement for the step up to 1m 2f on handicap debut. The 4-year-old won a Kempton maiden in April and ran well under a penalty a Wolverhampton last time. Must be respected for a trainer who won this corresponding race in 2021.

Stay Well, a polytrack winner, needs to settle better than he did on his Newmarket seasonal reappearance but if he does, he’s feasibly treated on his best form.

Verdict: Four-year-old’s have won all five running’s of this handicap which is a positive for the chances of Endless Power and Mighty Nebula. However, I’m taking a chance with Lord Protector and if can get it, take the 14/1 with Bet365.

Lord Protector – 14/1 @ Bet365.

Good luck with your Thursday bets.

John