Hi all,
Inside today's main piece I'm looking at the best of Friday's action at Haydock and Thirsk.
The final declarations for Saturday’s racing were released on Thursday, and I can see why I usually take a holiday before Royal Ascot. I haven’t anything booked as yet this year but there’s still time. To put it politely, this weekend’s racing is underwhelming—though some might use stronger language.
I normally do a column for each of the five days of Royal Ascot but apart from the Tuesday I’m not sure I will have the time this year. I’m quietly confident of making a tidy profit once more so if you want my Royal Ascot previews and selections you can get them here.
Friday Pointers
How does Friday action stack up? It's modest, but after a quick look at all eight meetings, I've found a few interesting races at Haydock. This time, I’m taking a different approach by analysing all but one race from a statistical perspective.
Haydock
6:58 – For me the most interesting race of the evening. It’s just a Class 5 handicap run over six furlongs and It’s only got £4,187 on offer to the winner but It’s got 16 runners so doesn’t lack competitiveness. The two to interest me are Vince Lombardi and Trilby.
Vince Lombardi made an underwhelming stable debut for the Kubler’s when last of 13 at Windsor 13 days ago. However, the 5-year-old missed the start and had no real chance after. He was sent off the 4/1 favourite last time which suggests connections think they have a nicely treated horse on their hands. Rossa Ryan has been booked for the ride and whilst his Haydock strike rate is just 8% in the past two years. His record when teaming up with the Kubler yard is a more appealing 6 winners from 18 rides +16, 9 places.
Trilby won a similar handicap over C&D (soft) in April but hasn’t been in the same form on two subsequent starts albeit he didn’t run too badly when a 3-length 6th of 21 at York last time. He raced away from the main action that day so you can probably mark-up that effort a touch. He’s been dropped 1lb since and James Doyle 1 from 1 when riding for Sam England takes over in the saddle. A well-run race is essential, which he seems likely to get here and provided he doesn’t need testing ground he can go close.
Watch Your Cubans
7:28 – Watch your Cubans as Cuban Breeze and Cuban Melody are in the line-up.
Cuban Melody: She showed significant improvement on turf, winning a Windsor novice race last month. Now moving into handicaps, she's on a fair mark. Jockey Osin Murphy is 2-9 22%, 6 places in handicaps at Haydock in the past 2-years.
Cuban Breeze: A capable sprint handicapper likely needed the run when finishing 6th of 7 at Windsor 18 days ago. Her best turf performances have been on good or quicker ground, which she should get here. She's nicely handicapped and jockey Rossa Ryan boasts a strong partnership with trainer David Evans in handicaps, with 20 winners from 78 rides (26%) and a notable 45% place rate over the past two years.
Miss Bella Brand is another contender to watch. This 6-year-old sprint mare seems to be regaining form, evidenced by her 1 ½ length third place out of 8 at Nottingham last month. She's now 4lb below her last winning turf mark, but her best performances have come on softer ground, and the forecast doesn't predict much rain. Tom Marquand rides her for the first time and has an impressive record in Haydock handicaps, with a 27% win rate in the past two years.
Amancio Can Go Close For Channon
8:38 – Old Cock: Trainer Ed Bethell has a strong record at Haydock, with 7 winners from 30 runners (23%) over the past two years. Old Cock showed promise by winning an Ayr maiden (1m) on his second start 39 days ago, despite showing some greenness. He’s making his handicap debut today and looks on a workable mark if he can handle the extra two furlongs.
Amancio: He won over a mile at Haydock two starts back and ran well again when finishing a close second over the same course and distance 14 days ago. Racing off the same mark, he should be competitive, especially if he handles the quicker ground. James Doyle takes the ride, and he has a good record with trainer Jack Channon, boasting a 23% win rate and 54% place rate from 13 rides.
Kings School: Showed some potential in three all-weather starts last season but finished last of four at Southwell on his handicap debut in March. Now in the care of Gemma Tutty, who has a 50% win rate at Haydock with 1 winner from 2 runners in the past two years. Tom Marquand taking his first ride for the yard is an interesting jockey booking.
Thirsk
Source: Racing Post
2:38 –
The Paul Midgley yard has two strong contenders in Prospect and Frank The Spark.
Prospect: All four of his career wins have come over 6f/7f, but he's also effective over the minimum trip. He's well-handicapped but needs all the cards to fall right
Frank The Spark: Still a maiden after seven starts but showed promise when finishing 5th out of 11 at Beverley (5f) nine days ago. He didn’t have the best runs 2f out and should have finished closer. He looks to be on a workable mark.
Another to watch is Canaria Prince, who is also well-handicapped. He doesn't win often but is 1lb below his last winning mark and finished 2 ¼ lengths third in this race last year from 11lb higher. The drying ground suits him, and although he's likely to face competition for the lead, he's capable of winning on a going day.
4:40 –
Atomise hasn't won since her juvenile days and is on a losing run of 15. However, she ran well on her seasonal return, finishing 1 ½ lengths second to stablemate Lord Abama over C&D 20 days ago. She gets a 4lb pull with her stablemate and has a good chance for a yard that's in good form.
Another strong contender is Phoenix Beach, a dual winner on the all-weather, and 2lb below his last winning mark. He showed he's just as effective on turf with a third-place finish at Ripon (5f) last time. Both career wins have come over 6f, so today's return to that trip is a big plus.
Friday Selection
There's hopefully a winner among the above horses. I’m expecting a much better run from Vince Lombardi on his second start for the Kubler’s. In the same race, I think C&D winner Trilby remains on a winning mark, but he may need softer ground.
Amancio is another on a winnable mark, but he may prefer more juice in the ground. In the same race, Kings School is interesting on debut for Gemma Tutty.
At Thirsk, Canaria Prince has claims on a good day in the 2:38, and Atomise can go well in the concluding race.
In the end, my Friday pin has landed on Canaria Prince.
Thirsk
2:38 – Canaria Prince – 14/1 (Gen).
Good luck with your Friday bets.
John