Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece, I’m looking ahead to Saturday’s Classic action. Before that, I have an ultrasound this morning plus a needle-guided biopsy to extract a tissue sample from a nodule found on my thyroid. It’s not as bad as it sounds, so hopefully, I will be fine to do Friday’s column.
Looking Ahead to the Weekend
A day later than usual, I’m looking at the weekend’s big racing events. There’s Classic action at the Curragh on Saturday with the Juddmonte Irish Oaks (3.40).
Saturday Racing
On this side of the Irish Sea, it’s not exactly a stellar Saturday of racing. At Newbury, the highest-quality race is the Group 3 Hackwood Stakes. However, the Newbury feature race is the £250,000 Weatherbys Super Sprint (3.35), open to horses that cost £65,000 or less at the sales, with runners weighted based on their sale price.
Summer jumping takes centre stage at Market Rasen with the best quality jumps card of the summer, featuring the Summer Plate (3.15) and the Summer Hurdle (2.40). I tipped the winner of the Summer Plate for Victor Value subscribers 12 months ago. Can I do it again? You can find my Saturday selections here.
You can watch the best of the action from Newbury and Market Rasen on the main ITV channel.
Newbury’s Weatherbys Super Sprint
The Weatherbys Super Sprint is notable for its distinctive weight system based on the sales price of the horses. The weights carried by the horses are determined by their purchase price, with more expensive horses carrying more weight. This system allows horses purchased for lower prices to compete more fairly against more expensive counterparts.
The race, established in 1991, offers a substantial prize fund, making it an attractive event for owners and trainers. Over the years, it has seen some notable winners who have gone on to achieve greater success in their racing careers. Due to the unique weighting system, both high-priced and bargain purchases have a fair shot at victory.
Trends:
Draw: 10/10 winners were drawn in stall 10 or higher.
Odds: 10/10 winners were returned at 28/1 & under.
Previous Wins: 10/10 winners had won at least one previous race.
Using the above trends, here are some trainer records in the race.
Richard Hannon: 4 winners from 13 runners 31% +16.83, 6 places
Rod Millman: 1 winner from 2 runners 50% +13
Archie Watson: 1 winner from 2 runners 50% +6.5.
Richard Hanno left three in this year's race at Monday’s final confirmation stage, while Rod Milman and Archie Watson had one each. Of the latter trainers entries, Milman's horse is a three-race maiden so fails the previous winner trend.
Early Contenders:
Two of interest to me at this early stage are Miss Collada, trained by Richard Hannon with Tom Marquand already booked, and Vingegaard, trained by Archie Watson. I haven’t had a bet yet, but the 25/1 available with Coral & Ladbrokes about Miss Collada looks big to me.
Curragh: Juddmonte Irish Oaks
This year’s race looks like a competitive contest.
Port Fairy: Aidan O’Brien's filly, improved with a first-time visor when successful in the Ribblesdale Stakes at Royal Ascot, heads the ante-post betting at 7/2.
Lope De Lilas: Trained by Willie Mullins and now owned by Wathnan Racing, is next in the betting at 13/2. Open to further improvement and has good claims.
Content: Another from O’Brien’s yard, improved for the step up to 1m 2f when third in the Group 1 Pretty Polly Stakes last time.
Dare To Dream: Could come over from France and would be a player on soft ground.
War Chimes: Ran well when third in the Epsom Oaks and is a serious contender if she backs up that effort.
Lava Stream: A neck runner-up to Port Fairy in the Ribblesdale Stakes but looks better value of the pair in the ante post betting.
Juddmonte Irish Oaks Verdict: Port Fairy is probably the right favorite, but Content, War Chimes, and Lava Stream make more appeal odds wise at present.
Thursday Racing
The Group 3 Meld Stakes (6.50) at Leopardstown is Thursday’s feature race.
Diego Velazquez: Bids to bounce back from a poor run on quick ground at Royal Ascot. The drop back to 1m 1f looks a good move and this represents a drop in class.
Tarawa: Won a Listed race over C&D last month and the inform filly looks set for a big run.
Bold Discovery: Has a 3lb penalty to carry for his Group 3 success two starts back. Needs to bounce back from a below-par run at Royal Ascot but has a good record at Leopardstown and gets the addition of the first time cheekpices.
Real Appeal: Runner-up to Bold Discovery two starts back, gets 3lb from the winner here.
Self Belief: Another previous C&D winner, close to Bold Discovery & Real Appeal on ratings can’t be totally discounted.
Verdict: Diego Velazquez takes a drop in class here and looks to get his career back on track. Last time out C&D winner Tarawa comes into the race with the best form and looks Diego Velazquez ‘s biggest rival. However, I'm edging towards Diego Velazquez and he's the pick despite some misgivings about quick ground.
Good luck with your Thursday bets.
John