Hi all,
Tuesday is the day I look for future winners from last week’s racing. Inside today’s main piece, I have eyecatchers from Newbury and the Curragh.
Future Winners
Newbury
Commanche Falls – Michael Dods
Commanche Falls has been a great servant to connections, winning back-to-back Goodwood Stewards' Cups in 2021/22 and two Listed races, plus the Group 3 Hackwood Stakes at Newbury in 2023. He’s yet to win in five starts this season and found this year’s Hackwood Stakes too tough, finishing 6th to Elite Status. Well-suited to an end-to-end gallop, if the handicapper drops him a couple of pounds, he could be competitive in Heritage Handicaps over 6f.
Temporize got a good front-running ride from Connor Beasley to win the Mettal UK Handicap (2m ½ f) at Newbury on Saturday. Beasley set modest fractions, which suited the winner. The way the race was run didn’t suit two horses who finished just behind him: Naqeeb and Kyle Of Lochalsh.
Naqeeb was held up and traveled well into contention 2f out, but from his early position, couldn’t catch the leader. He could be heading for the Ebor Handicap, and a drop back to a strongly run 1m 6f could suit him. He’s been found out in Group company this season, and handicaps seem more his level. While he will face some better-treated rivals in the Ebor, he should be high on the shortlist.
Kyle Of Lochalsh – Hughie Morrison
Kyle Of Lochalsh proved his stamina for 2m 4f when 3rd of 20 in the Ascot Stakes on his previous start. Being held up in a steadily run race wasn’t ideal for a thorough stayer. He’s progressing well, and the 2m 4f Glorious Goodwood handicap that Temporize won last year would be a logical target. He won on soft ground in May, so any ease in the ground wouldn’t bother him.
Curragh
Greek Flower has now finished runner-up in two valuable sprint handicaps at the Curragh. She ran well from the far side but never looked like catching the winner. A small increase in the weights awaits her, making life harder, but she should remain competitive. She’s equally effective over 5f, and both her career wins have come with ease underfoot.
Torivega – Ms Sheila Lavery
Torivega might end up being a ‘cliff horse’ for me this season. He made an excellent seasonal return at the Curragh, finishing ¾ length 3rd of 17 in May, then didn’t get clear run when 20th of 25 in the Wokingham Handicap at Royal Ascot. Again, he couldn’t show his potential here, not getting the best start but traveling well in the rear, only to be caught behind horses near the final furlong and needing to switch for a clear run. There was plenty left in the tank as he ran strongly to snatch fourth.
He’s unproven on soft ground, but his dam won on heavy, so he should handle it. Now 1 from 10, his sole win came in a Cork maiden (6f) last July. He’s effective in big-field handicaps but needs all the cards to fall right. When they do, he can win a nice pot over 6f and might be worth another try over 7f.
That's me done with last week's future winners.
Tuesday Racing
Tuesday’s racing is frankly dreadful, and I haven’t spent much time on it.
Musselburgh
3:45 – Rock Melody can usually be relied upon to run well at Musselburgh. Her record here is 3 wins from 8 runs, with 5 places, improving to 3 wins from 4 runs on good ground. Her last three wins have come here, two over 5f last summer, before showing her versatility by winning over 7f last October. She looked to be working towards another win when 4th of 11 here (7f) three starts back. She needs to bounce back from a couple of lesser runs but is now 4lb below her last winning mark.
Good luck with your Tuesday bets.
John