Are You a Backer or Layer

Hi all,

I didn’t get back from London until late on Tuesday evening, so I haven’t had time to do my usual Wednesday column. Instead, in today’s short piece, I’m exploring the choice between being a backer or a layer.

Backer or Layer: Which One Are You?

Choosing to be a backer or a layer depends on your betting style, risk tolerance, and understanding of the market. Backing is generally safer with a fixed loss, while laying can offer better odds but comes with higher potential risk. Both strategies can be profitable with careful planning and disciplined execution.

I've always been a backer, but since the start of 2022, I have increasingly turned to laying. There’s so much that can go wrong when backing that it’s worth considering the alternatives.

Dave Renham did some analysis on LTO winners over jumps for GeeGeez earlier this year, which is worth a read.

I have several laying systems that quietly generate small yearly profits. Today, I’m going to share one of them with you. It focuses on trainers with last time out (LTO) handicap winners on the flat.

Here’s a breakdown of individual trainers with poor records for LTO handicap winners:

There is just one qualifier running today: Highwaygrey, trained by Tim Easterby, in the 2:10 at Pontefract. Easterby has had four LTO handicap winners win again on their next start this year.

Highwaygrey returned to winning ways over C&D 10 days ago, and his record over C&D on good or quicker ground is 5 wins from 10 runs (+7.56), with 7 places. Thus, the 8-year-old has plenty in his favour. However, he isn’t the easiest horse to win with, and I think all the cards fell right for him last time.

Are you a backer or layer of Highwaygrey?

All the best,

John