Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece, you’ll find two future winners from Saturday’s Shergar Cup. Plus, I preview Nottingham’s feature race.
Trust Your Gut Feeling
There’s nothing more frustrating in this game than when one of your original picks, which you later discarded, pops up and wins.
I like to look at the big race entries at the five-day stage. Normally, one stands out like a sore thumb. Then, you take a fresh look at the race at final declarations. You look at the trends and other emerging information and then discard that initial pick.
This happened to me on Saturday. When I first looked at the opening race at the Shergar Cup, I liked Holkham Bay. However, as I delved deeper into the race, I decided it was a no bet race. Of course, Holkham Bay won comfortably. That’s one of the problems when you overanalyse; you end up not seeing the wood for the trees.
I always tell people to go with their gut feeling when it comes to horse race betting. Yet, I end up doing the opposite. Today’s lesson: If you really fancy a horse and it’s a fair price, don’t second guess yourself. Just back it.
Future Winners
Here are a couple of future winners from Saturday’s Shergar Cup.
Spirit Mixer – Andrew Balding
Spirit Mixer ran one of his best races of the season when a 1 ¼ length 4th of 10 to stablemate Rach Hand in the two-mile handicap at Saturday’s Shergar Cup. Granted, the 6-year-old is on a losing run that goes back to May 2022. Nevertheless, he’s now eligible for lesser handicaps than Saturday’s race and can win again on a sound surface in the coming weeks.
Sam Hawkens – William Haggas
Sam Hawkens wasn’t well positioned in a steadily run race when a 2 ¾ length 4th of 9 to Going Remote. This was just his first run since joining the Haggas yard, and there will be other days for the 3-year-old. He’s won on heavy ground for his previous yard, so some ease in the ground might be preferable. Also, he needs a better run race than he had on Saturday.
Ok, those are my two future winners from Saturday’s Shergar Cup. Now, onto Tuesday’s racing.
Tuesday Racing
It was nice to be able to delve into a good competitive handicap on Monday. If I was running the sport, I would have one big handicap each day Monday to Friday outside of the big festivals. Of course, it’s not going to happen because those who run the sport just don’t have the imagination to implement such decisions.
Today’s action could be worse as we do at least have three handicaps on Tuesday worth more than £10,000 to the winner.
There’s going to be a change to more unsettled weather conditions over the next few days so were likely to see quickly changing ground. Most of the racecourses have had the watering cans out so you can guess the result when the rain suddenly appears. Exhibit A: Chepstow last Thursday.
Nottingham
At Nottingham, it was good to firm on Monday morning, and they have been watering. Thus, any significant rain could see a rapid deterioration in the going.
The best race on this afternoon’s Nottingham card is the Weatherbys Racing Bank Colwick Cup Handicap (4:00).
4:00 – Recent Sandown scorer Almudena is a steadily progressive staying handicapper at the right end of the handicap. She’s up 4lb for her recent success, but she’s open to a bit more improvement for the step up to two miles. She’s the most likely winner for sure, but 6/4 doesn’t appeal.
Valley Of Flowers has yet to add to her four career wins on five starts this season, but she’s arguably in the form of her life. She posted a career best on RPR’s when a head 2nd of 8 at York 18 days ago. She’s been nudged up 1lb since but is knocking on the door and looks a shade more value than the favorite.
Clan Chieftain hasn’t been the easiest to train and probably wouldn’t want the ground to ease too much. However, he’s talented and bred to be better than an official rating of 75. He’s on a competitive enough mark and not discounted for a trainer and jockey that combined to win last year’s race.
Tuesday’s ‘Lay or Play’
Three of Monday’s ‘lay or play’ qualifiers were beaten and the fourth was a non-runner.
There’s one qualifier on Tuesday and it’s Duran in the 4:30 at Nottingham.
Good luck with your Tuesday bets.
Cheers
John