Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece, you'll find my preview of the two races from Ripon that are live on ITV.
Yes, I know Lyndon B isn’t the easiest to win with, and yes, I’m talking through my pocket as I had backed him at 10/1. However, Kieran Shoemark gave the horse a poor ride. He managed to find trouble in the run and picked the wrong way inside the final furlong. He should have won by a couple of lengths. If I owned the horse, I wouldn’t be a happy bunny. Kieran is really struggling to make the right decisions when needed. The Gosden job is really taking its toll on his confidence. Normally, I don’t call out jockeys for poor rides, but I couldn’t stay silent on this occasion.
Saturday Racing
Newbury and Ripon take centre stage on ITV on Saturday. At Newbury, the feature race is the Group 2 Hungerford Stakes. Just seven have been declared due to York’s more valuable Sky Bet City Of York Stakes being only a week away. It’s crazy race planning that allows two Group 2’s over the same distance to be run just seven days apart.
Ripon
Ripon’s most famous race is the Great St Wilfrid Handicap (3:20), which is also Saturday’s big betting race.
2:45 – William Hill Silver Trophy Handicap (Class 4) – 6f
Supreme King, an easy winner at Doncaster in May, was unlucky in the run and finished 1¼ lengths second to Alcazan in the ‘Brighton Bullet’ handicap 8 days ago. Back to his Doncaster form last time, he should go close if all the cards fall right.
Fortamour has 6 wins from 18 runs over C&D, with four of those successes on good ground. His latest C&D win came 12 days ago, and although he’s 3lb higher, he’s likely to be competitive at a course he loves.
Grant Wood, a winner at Haydock in June, has remained in form on two subsequent starts at the same venue. Provided the ground is no worse than good, he should be in the mix.
Another Baar, a C&D winner, took advantage of the handicapper’s leniency to return to winning ways at Doncaster 14 days ago. He’s been nudged up 3lb for his Doncaster success but remains competitively weighted if stall 18 doesn’t prove an inconvenience this time.
3:20 – William Hill Great St Wilfrid Handicap (Class 2) – 6f
I previewed the race in Thursday’s column. Here’s a recap of the race:
Do You Dare To Hope?
The sponsors have last year’s runner-up, Summerghand, as the 7/1 favorite. Beaten a head 12 months ago, the 10-year-old can now race off an 8lb lower mark.
Dare To Hope, a recent eye-catcher for me, finished 4th of 14 at York two starts back. He finished ahead of Summerghand in the Stewards Cup at Goodwood last time. He wasn’t seen to best effect at Goodwood and has winning form over C&D. He’s high on my shortlist from stall 16. Stablemate Rock Opera wasn’t well-positioned after a slow start but ran on to good effect when 4th of 9 at the Racing League at Windsor on Thursday. It would be a quick turnaround if he were to run, but he can’t be ruled out at the weights. He could have a good draw in stall 12. Another stablemate, top-weight Ramazan, can’t be totally discounted, but I’m hoping the trainer is aiming the 4-year-old at the Ayr Gold Cup, a race he was a close second in last year.
Kitai bounced back to winning ways at Goodwood 18 days ago. She’s up 3lb but remains on a competitive mark based on past form (has won off 2lb higher). She has appealing claims from a handicapping perspective, but stall 2 may not be ideal. Since 2008, stalls 1 to 5 has produced just 1 winner from 75 runners.
Trainer Bryan Smart won this in 2016, and he’s got a leading contender in Secret Guest. Secret Guest returned from wind surgery with a good ½-length 2nd of 6 at Redcar last Saturday. Just 1lb above his last winning mark, he’s of major interest. Likes a strongly run 6f, and if he takes to the course, he’s a major player, although stall 5 may not be ideal.
York Ebor Fesival Previews
My Ripon picks have already been sent to Victor Value subscribers. If you want them and my York Ebor Festival previews/selections, you can get them here.
Saturday’s ‘Lay or Play’
Both Friday’s ‘Lay or Play’ qualifiers were beaten. There are two qualifiers on Saturday, both trained by Tim Easterby at Ripon.
Will they be a lay or play for you?
Good luck with your Saturday bets.
John
Summerghand age appears to be against a win……0/39 aged 8 and over
Hi Norman
Yeah, I wasn’t going to be with Summerghand. He’ll likely be heading to York for the race he dead heated in last year. I’m not sure if I will be with him there or not.
A bit money and mouth with KS, JB?
Lyndon B has not won for over 2 yrs and since it’s last win has had a change of jockey in every run it has had.
Has always, always been held up and consequently, will be in the wrong place at the wrong time, more often than not. KS was on a kicking to nothing riding him and I’m not sure that his agent was wise to get him the ride on that one. If the horse had of gotten up, it would have been hailed as a fab ride, wouldn’t it? Should KS be the Gosden stable jockey though…prob not, but he doesn’t deserve the kicking he is getting right now. There was a worse ride at Lingfield as well by Harry Davies on Charlottes Web. That horse was travelling all over the field from a long way out. There was a gap for the horse just over a furlong out, only for 2 seconds, but it was there and you could see that the jockey (who also hasn’t had things go his way as expected) just didn’t have the confidence to push his horse through it. OM, WB and TM would all have gone for that gap imo and the horse would have won. None of us are jockeys however and we have no idea what it’s like to be riding at speed on a horse, especially when your confidence is shot to pieces.
In contrast, when you are in the elite class of jockeyship, that confidence is part of your riding persona throughout the season.
Hi Rick,
I’m not one to have a go at jockey’s and yes it was pocket talk regarding KS’s ride on Lyndon B. I decided to watch the race again and 1f out if he had waited a gap would have appeared instead he ended up switching a couple of times inside the final furlong. That’s racing but a more confident Kieran would have waited.
Did 11 previous jockeys get it wrong then since the horses last win?
Take a look at that Harry Davies ride JB
it was worse because the horse was in the right place for 90% of the race and indecision/confidence cost connections the race.
I did Rick and it was a dreadful ride by Davies worse than KS given the size of the field. He had two opportuniies to go for the right passage and if he had taken either he would have won. I’m not sure he was doing for the second of them.