Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece I’m previewing Saturday’s Group 1 Betfair Sprint Cup at Haydock.
Callum Shepherd Wins Appeal
Jockey Callum Shepherd successfully appealed his recent 18-day ban for failing to ride out a finish on Thorntonledale Max, who dead-heated at Kempton last month. The ban stirred controversy, especially after James Doyle avoided a penalty for a similar incident at Windsor just days earlier.
The rule is clear: every horse must be ridden to “obtain the best possible placing,” meaning jockeys should ride all the way to the line. In my view, the Kempton stewards applied the rule correctly.
Interestingly, Shepherd claimed he got unbalanced in the closing stages, a defence Doyle used in his case. However, I don't recall Shepherd mentioning this at the time. After reviewing the race, it doesn't appear he lost balance to me. The disciplinary panel’s decision seems questionable and could set a troubling precedent. What's to stop future jockeys from using the “unbalanced” defence to escape penalties?
Looking Ahead To The Weekend
Group 1 racing returns to Britain this Saturday with the Betfair Sprint Cup at Haydock (3:35). Inisherin, the Commonwealth Cup winner, leads the betting despite a subpar run in the July Cup. He'll face stiff competition from Elite Status, who’s unbeaten on two runs this season, and his stablemate Swingalong, a strong performer runner-up on her last two starts in Group 1 sprints.
The Haydock undercard includes the Group 3 Superior Mile Stakes (1:15) and the Old Borough Cup (2:25).
ITV Racing will broadcast five races from Haydock, along with two each from Ascot and Kempton. Kempton’s card, the richest of its all-weather season, features the Group 3 September Stakes (2:35) and the Unibet London Mile Series Final Handicap (3:15).
Betfair Sprint Cup
The Betfair Sprint Cup, run over a straight 6 furlongs at Haydock, has produced top-class winners in recent years, such as Dream Ahead and Harry Angel. Here's what the ten-year trends which contain 10 winners from 132 runners, 30 placed, tell us.
Odds: Horses priced at 12/1 and bigger have struggled, with 0 winners from 78 runners in the past decade.
Age: No 7-year-old or older horse has won in the past ten years.
Draw: Horses drawn in stalls 1-3 and 14+ have struggled to win.
Digging further into horseracebase we find stalls 1-3 are 0 winners from 26 runners, 2 placed and stalls 14+ are 0 winners from 17 runners, 3 placed.
All the last winners of the Betfair Sprint Cup ran at Ascot, Newbury, Newmarket (July Course) or York on their previous start.
The ideal profile for the winner of the race is a horse aged 3 to 6, drawn in the middle stalls, priced 11/1 or under, and who raced at Ascot, Newbury, Newmarket (July Course), or York last time out.
The going at Haydock was officially “Good to Soft” as of Tuesday lunchtime, with 6mm of rain expected on Thursday but little else forecast for the rest of the week.
Betfair Sprint Cup Contenders
Inisherin:
Dominated in the Group 2 Sandy Lane Stakes over C&D and secured the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot. He’s looking to bounce back after a subpar July Cup. Trainer Kevin Ryan is no stranger to this race, having won it in 2019 and 2021.
Elite Status:
Unbeaten in both starts this season, he missed Royal Ascot due to a setback but returned with a victory in the Group 3 Hackwood Stakes at Newbury. Minzaal completed the Hackwood Stakes/Betfair Sprint Cup double in 2022 and Elite Status is high on the shortlist.
Swingalong:
Stablemate of Elite Status, Swingalong has been knocking on the door, finishing second in the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot and the July Cup at Newmarket. A win here would be well-deserved. William Buick has been booked for the ride.
Bucanero Fuerte:
A Group 1-winning juvenile over 6 furlongs, he missed the Commonwealth Cup due to travel sickness. He hasn’t raced since his victorious seasonal debut at Naas in May and needs to prove his fitness. However, he’s the highest officially rated horse in the line-up.
Jasour:
Won a Group 3 at Ascot but was too keen when third in the Commonwealth Cup and sixth in the July Cup. If he can channel his energy better, he’s a serious contender, especially with a trainer who won this race with Harry Angel in 2017.
Givemethebeatboys:
Well-fancied at 4/1 before a disappointing last-place finish in the Commonwealth Cup, he bounced back to win a Group 3 at the Curragh after a 50-day layoff. Will need a career best to win.
Kind Of Blue:
Progressive this season, he was a close third to Elite Status at Newbury and narrowly beaten by Givemethebeatboys at the Curragh. He’ll need a career-best performance to win. Each way claims for trainer James Fanshawe who tasted success in the race with The Tin Man in 2018
Other Threats:
If the track sees more rain than expected, don’t overlook Kinross, Art Power, or Montassib. Kinross prefers 7f and needs soft ground to win over 6f. Montassib, an improving sprinter, will also need soft turf and a fast pace to follow up his win in the Group 3 Chipchase Stakes at Newcastle last time.
Wednesday Racing
Wednesday’s highlight is the Leisure Connect WiFi Approved Suppliers 2-Y-O Series Final Nursery Handicap (5:45) at Hamilton, offering £10,308 to the winner. Despite the decent prize money, only seven juveniles have been declared, likely due to the forecast of heavy ground.
Race Breakdown:
Herecomesthebear: Wednesday’s only ‘lay or play‘ qualifier. He won a nursery at Ffos Las last week on heavy ground, so conditions won’t be an issue. Trainer Hugo Palmer has a modest 12% strike rate with last-time-out handicap winners since 2022 with an A/E= 0.64. However, only one of his handicap winners was a juvenile and he's got a 23% win strike rate with his LTO handicap winners so far in 2024.
Karl Burke saddles Our Mighty Mo and likely favourite Airspeed. Airspeed has finished runner-up in his last two starts and benefits from a 5lb claim by Brandon Wilkie.
Shazani: He delivered his best performance when winning a C&D maiden in June. However, that win came on good to firm ground. His ability on anything softer than good is uncertain.
East Tyrone: He gets first-time blinkers after a poor run at York last month. A return to easier ground should help, and with trainer Kevin Ryan having won this race in 2017 and 2018, he can’t be dismissed.
Ziggy’s Ariel: Won a maiden over C&D in July and wasn’t disgraced when seventh at Goodwood. She’s a contender if she handles the softer ground on her nursery debut. Trainer Alice Haynes is 2 from 4 with her juveniles at Hamilton in the past five years. However, she's gone 33 runners and 20 days since her last winner.
Georgecandoit: Consistently placed in all four starts, he’s been gelded and rested for 77 days. He appears on a workable mark for his nursery debut and has a good chance in an open looking race.
Good luck with your Wednesday bets!
John