Hi all,
In today’s main piece, I’m reflecting on Sunday’s Group 1 Prix Du Moulin at Longchamp and highlighting a couple of eyecatchers from last weekend’s racing. Plus, I have done an in-depth analysis of Tuesday’s feature race.
Group 1 Prix Du Moulin Recap
Sunday’s Group 1 Prix Du Moulin at Longchamp looked like it would be the best mile race of the season. The only notable absence was Rosallion in a much-anticipated clash between the best older miler, Charyn, and the top 3-year-olds, Notable Speech and Aidan O’Brien’s Henry Longfellow. The key question was whether Notable Speech could replicate the turn of foot he showed when winning the 2,000 Guineas and Sussex Stakes on softer ground.
While the betting focused on the big three, Mickael Barzalona and Andre Fabre’s Tribalist stole the show. Barzalona sent Tribalist to the front early, and he never saw a rival, leading to a surprise win.
I was surprised that the other jockeys allowed a quality horse like Tribalist such an uncontested lead. Perhaps they thought, given his Godolphin ownership, that he was simply a pacemaker for Notable Speech, expecting him to fade. But you can’t give a multiple Group 2/3 winner that kind of advantage.
Charyn was closing fast at the line but had too much ground to make up, with Silvestre De Sousa misjudging the pace. It might have been one race too many for the 4-year-old, who has been racing since April, but I lean towards it being an error in tactics.
Henry Longfellow finished third and, as I mentioned after the Sussex Stakes needs more than a mile. I’m also not convinced that he really likes soft ground. However, more importantly I’m not sure he’s that good.
As for Notable Speech, he was never closer than fifth. It could be that the soft ground blunted his speed, but he, too, was positioned too far back to make a serious impact. He’s been on the go since January, but a switch to faster ground in the Breeders' Cup Mile might see him to better advantage.
Future Winners:
It’s been a quiet week for future winners, with just two standing out.
Akkadian Thunder – David O’Meara
Akkadian Thunder bounced back from a poor run at Newcastle with a strong finish at Ascot on Saturday. He finished a 1 ¼ lengths runner-up to Grey’s Monument in, proving his effectiveness on soft ground. Having previously won at Doncaster, he’s in good form and could return to Ascot next month for another valuable seven-furlong handicap.
American Affair – Jim Goldie
American Affair remains in excellent form after finishing ½ length behind Shagraan at Haydock on Saturday. His effort came more towards the stands side, which arguably wasn’t ideal. Trainer Jim Goldie could target him at the Portland Handicap (5 ½ f) at Doncaster. Goldie has a strong record in the race, with 1 win and 2 places from 5 runners since 2008. Despite a busy season, American Affair may have one more big performance in him before a well-deserved break.
Promising Juveniles
We saw a couple of smart juveniles in action at Haydock over the weekend.
Defence Minister, who scored on debut at Newmarket, followed up under a penalty on Friday in a 6f novice. He still looked a touch green but has the potential for more improvement. He’s likely to step up to pattern company in the coming weeks, though he’ll probably need a sound surface to show his best.
On Saturday, Luther made it 2 from 3 with a comfortable success in the Listed Ascendant Stakes (1m). An impressive turn of foot inside the final furlong secured him the win. Trainer Charlie Fellowes mentioned the Group 2 Royal Lodge Stakes at Newmarket as a likely next target for the son of Frankel.
Tuesday Racing
More moderate racing this side of the Irish Sea on Tuesday but there’s a Listed race at Galway. The Galway feature the Ardilaun Hotel Irish EBF Oyster Stakes (6:15) has attracted 15 fillies & mares who take aim at gaining black type.
Galway
Source: Racing Post
Let's break down four key contenders for the Ardilaun Hotel Irish EBF Oyster Stakes.
1. Rouge Sellier
Trainer: Sir Mark Prescott
Last Run: 4th of 5 in the Listed Glasgow Stakes at Hamilton (1m 3f).
Notes: She was too keen in a modestly run race, finishing 6 ¾ lengths behind the winner, Kalpana. Despite that, she's open to improvement and now drops in class.
Positives: Colin Keane is booked, which is a strong indicator of confidence in her chances. With improvement expected, she could have a big say if settling better.
Concerns: Needs to improve on her previous run and handle softer conditions if they prevail.
Verdict: With top jockey booking and the promise of improvement, Rouge Sellier is a serious contender if she settles early and handles the ground.
2. Beechwood
Trainer: Paddy Twomey
Last Run: Neck 2nd of 7 in a Sligo handicap (1m 2 ½ f) under top weight.
Notes: This mare performed well under a top weight last time, and the step back up to 1m 4f should suit her. The yard is in form, and the softer ground is expected to play to her strengths.
Positives: Proven at the trip and ground. Hails from a yard among the winners.
Concerns: Slight question over class, moving from a handicap to a listed race.
Verdict: Should run well with trip and ground in her favour, and is worth serious consideration for a place.
3. Andromeda
Trainer: Aidan O'Brien
Last Run: Won a C&D maiden 49 days ago.
Notes: Andromeda got off the mark in her fifth race and has proven herself over course and distance. She comes from a top yard, but it’s worth noting O’Brien has a modest record in this race, with just 2 winners from 30 runners since 2008.
Positives: Course-and-distance winner. Has room for improvement.
Concerns: While the stable is strong, O'Brien's record in this race is underwhelming. The class of opposition in a maiden compared to today’s listed event could also be a challenge.
Verdict: Andromeda’s familiarity with the course and distance makes her a contender, but her trainer’s record in this race is a slight concern.
4. Romzina
Trainer: Dermot Weld
Last Run: Won a Cork maiden (1m 2 ½ f) on racecourse debut 25 days ago.
Notes: She created a positive impression when winning on debut over slightly shorter, but today’s ground conditions are an unknown. She’s lightly raced and open to improvement. The trainer has a solid record in the race, having won it three times in the last decade.
Positives: Least exposed and showed potential on debut. The yard’s strong record in this race is a big plus.
Concerns: Has yet to encounter soft ground, and her ability to handle it remains a question. The step up in trip could also be a test.
Verdict: Romzina is a dark horse in the race—lightly raced, with plenty of potential to improve—but she needs to prove herself on the ground and over the trip.
Conclusion:
Top Contender: Rouge Sellier has the class, a top jockey, and potential for improvement. If she can settle and handle the ground, she should go close.
Solid Alternative: Beechwood brings proven stamina and soft-ground form, making her a solid place bet.
Potential Improver: Romzina is the least exposed and could improve, but soft ground is an unknown. Worth considering if the price is right.
Watch the Market: Andromeda is not to be discounted due to her C&D win, though her trainer’s record in this race tempers expectations.
There’s one ‘lay or play’ qualifier on Tuesday.
Good luck with your Tuesday bets.
John