Hi all,
Many years ago, I read a free e-book by Tim Drakeford, and his advice on backing horses really stuck with me:
“First, the horse must have the ability to win the race. Second, the horse must be able to show its form—that is, to live up to its innate ability. Third, and vitally, the animal must be fancied by the people connected with it. If they are not trying, then the horse will not win, and if they are not trying very hard, it is less likely to win than might otherwise seem the case.”
Drakeford’s approach can be summed up in three questions:
- Does the horse have sufficient ability to win a race of this type?
- Are the circumstances right for the horse to show that ability?
- Do connections expect the horse to win or go close?
If you can answer “yes” to all three questions, you have a potential bet. But it’s only a potential bet because the selection also needs to be offered at value odds.
Hindsight and Northern Spirit’s Standout Bet
Now, let’s talk about some hindsight. I didn’t place a bet at York on Sunday due to the rain. However, with hindsight, one horse clearly stood out as a great bet—Brian Ellison’s Northern Spirit.
Source: Racing Post
Looking at Northern Spirit’s RPR and Topseed figure from his win at Southwell, it was clear he had the form to win. His last two starts with soft in the going description also reinforced this and then look at his odds for those races.
So, did he have the ability to win Sunday’s race? Absolutely. And did he have the right conditions to show that ability? Yes again. The galloping track at York, like Nottingham and Yarmouth, also suited him well.
That left the final question: Did connections expect him to win or go close?
With hindsight, I’d say yes. In fact, they might have expected him to be the favourite or second favourite. Instead, punters were getting odds of 17/2 for a horse that was more like a 5/1 shot.
Maybe some punters were hesitant because his recent win came at Southwell, or because his best turf form was over a year ago. But that form was on soft ground, just like Sunday.
As for value, I think we can confidently say he was a value bet at 17/2. In the end, Northern Spirit had the ability, the conditions, and the confidence of connections—all at a good price.
It’s easy to say all this with hindsight, but Northern Spirit’s chance was there for all to see in the form book. His win is a great reminder that Drakeford’s rules can guide you to a value bet.
Friday Racing
The Group 2 Doncaster Cup (3:35) is the feature event on Day 2 of the St Leger meeting, accompanied by another Group 2 the Flying Childers Stakes (3:00) on an eight-race card. ITV Racing will broadcast five races from Doncaster which also features the rescheduled Group 3 Dick Poole Fillies' Stakes (3:55) from Salisbury.
The ground was slower than expected at Doncaster on Thursday due to 5mm of rain overnight—more than forecast. Little rain was forecast on Thursday but there was a heavy shower during racing. No rain is expected on Friday but there are never any guarantees when it comes to the British weather.
I’ll be attending Doncaster on Friday and have already prepared my Victor Value Friday preview and selections. Unfortunately, I may not be able to write Saturday’s column this week, but I’ll try my best.
There are four ‘lay or play’ qualifiers on Friday, including Subsequent in the opening ITV race at Doncaster.
After 27 consecutive successful lays, we’re getting closer to one of them going in.
I’m also laying a group of trainers at the St Leger meeting, and whilst laying hasn’t played a big part in my betting in the past, it is now and its providing profits.
Keep an eye on future updates when readers will have a chance to share in these laying strategies.
Good luck with your Friday bets.
John