Hi all,
Inside today’s piece, we look at the second part of a fabulous weekend of big race action.
I spent Monday out in the Yorkshire Dales, and what a beautiful, warm, and sunny day it was. It was one of those lovely September days, a great tonic after a few tough days on the betting front. Now, I’m back refreshed and ready for Ayr’s Western Meeting.
Irish Champions Weekend Final Recap
Porta Fortuna continues to shine under the care of Donnacha O'Brien. Already a Group 1 winner as a juvenile, she’s proven even better as a 3-year-old, claiming her fourth Group 1 victory in Saturday’s Matron Stakes at Leopardstown. Her only defeat this season was a narrow neck second in the 1,000 Guineas at Newmarket.
In the Matron, she took over 1f out from long-time leader Fallen Angel but idled inside the final furlong. Otherwise, she could have won by more than a length. Fallen Angel, in her first race since winning the Irish 1,000 Guineas and her move to Wathnan Racing, ran well. Given her layoff, she can win again soon.
Porta Fortuna is Europe’s top mile filly, and now she’ll take on the boys in the Breeders’ Cup Mile. It’ll be interesting to see how she fares there, especially after going close on fast ground in last year’s Breeders’ Cup.
Kyprios: A Stayer Supreme
Kyprios was back to his best, making it 5 from 5 this year with a straightforward win in Sunday’s Irish St Leger. The dual Ascot Gold Cup winner was landing his second Irish St Leger. What’s not to love about Kyprios? He’s tough as they come and deserves admiration for his comeback from a life-threatening condition. To me, he’s the best stayer since Ardross.
He could now target next month’s Prix du Cadran at Longchamp or the Long-Distance Cup at Ascot. If Longchamp’s ground turns heavy, the Arc could even come under serious consideration. Regular readers know I believe he could place in a strongly run Arc on testing ground.
Bradsell: Speed King Confirms Dominance
Bradsell and Believing were the ones to watch in Sunday’s Group 1 Flying Five, and Bradsell came out on top again, confirming his Nunthorpe form. Despite many thinking Believing was unlucky with her draw at York, Bradsell proved superior once again. The winner is speedy and able to hold a good position whereas Believing got a bit outpaced 2f out before staying on well.
Believing, possibly on the wrong side of the track again, got outpaced 2f out but stayed on well. As I mentioned after Nunthorpe she needs a Group 1 over 5 ½ f. Meanwhile, Bradsell is likely to head for the Breeders’ Cup Sprint, where he’ll take some beating if in similar form to his York and Curragh victories.
This race also highlighted how weak the Irish sprint division is, with the first six home all trained in Britain.
Juvenile Watch: Rising Stars
Lake Victoria extended her unbeaten record to three with a victory in Sunday’s Group 1 Moyglare Stakes at the Curragh. She’s rapidly improving and looks set to be a top-class 3-year-old. Held up in the rear, she benefitted from the strong pace set by her stablemate Bedtime Story, who was too keen and wasn’t knocked about when her chance was gone. Despite pulling up lame, Bedtime Story isn’t one to give up on just yet.
The Moyglare form looks solid, and Lake Victoria could end the season as Europe’s best juvenile filly. She’s now among the favourites for next year’s 1,000 Guineas, although Zarigana, a smart French juvenile, could be the winter favourite for the first fillies classic if she wins the Prix Marcel Boussac on Arc Day.
On the other hand, I’m not convinced that Sunday’s Group 1 National Stakes will produce a future Classic winner. The race looked average, and the 12/1 winner Scorthy Champ whilst a nice colt, who can win more races, doesn’t look a 2,000 Guineas winner in waiting. Especially given the race time was run in a much slower than the Moyglare.
Runner-up Henri Matisse who had beaten the winner on his previous start looked to be coming with a winning run between the final two furlongs, but he wandered under pressure inside the final furlong and threw the race away. He’s got ability for sure but looks like a very tricky ride and might benefit from the application of some headgear to help him focus.
Lion In Winter Looks 2,000 Guineas Play
Of Aidan O’Brien’s juvenile colts, Lion In Winter still looks the best to me and could be the next Irish Champion.. I’ve backed him at 8/1 for next year’s 2,000 Guineas, and if he wins next month’s Dewhurst Stakes, that price will shorten dramatically. I haven’t yet taken the plunge for the Derby, but 7/1 also looks acceptbale.
Future Winners:
Last Tuesday, I highlighted American Affair as a future winner, stating:
“Trainer Jim Goldie could target him at the Portland Handicap (5½ f) at Doncaster. Goldie has a strong record in the race, with 1 win and 2 places from 5 runners since 2008. Despite a busy season, American Affair may have one more big performance in him before a well-deserved break.”
Well, guess who didn’t back last Saturday’s Portland Handicap winner? I talked myself out of it because of his wide draw, which, unfortunately, summed up my week. Hopefully, some of you didn’t overthink the draw and got on board!
Looking ahead, American Affair could run in Saturday’s Ayr Gold Cup with a 5lb penalty. The return to 6f won’t bother him, and given his current form, he’s hard to rule out. Albasheer, who finished ¾ length behind him in the Portland, didn’t get a run 1f out but still finished strongly. He’s no stranger to the Ayr Gold Cup, having been a close-up 4th last year. If he gets a clearer path this time, he can go close.
This week, I’ve got one more to follow from Leopardstown:
Nurburgring – Joseph O’Brien:
After an impressive Galway Hurdle win, Nurburgring was set too much to do when finishing 4th of 22 in Saturday’s Petingo Handicap at Leopardstown. The winner made all the running, but Nurburgring stayed on well, beaten just 8¼ lengths. A step up to 2m looks worth a play, and he’s one of the leading fancies for the Irish Cesarewitch later this month.
Tuesday’s ‘Lay or Play’
Two more successful lays on Monday, and there’s one qualifier for Tuesday.
I’ve got to say, my laying strategy has been a lifesaver over the past month. Without it, I’d have been struggling.
Good luck with your Tuesday bets.
John