Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece you’ll find my thoughts on Day 1 of Ayr’s Western Meeting. Plus, at the end you can find out how you can get my profitable ‘lay or play’ qualifiers.
Ayr’s Western Meeting
Ayr's Western Meeting is Scotland's most prestigious flat meeting, held annually in September at Ayr Racecourse. The three-day festival culminates in the Ayr Gold Cup, a renowned handicap sprint race. The meeting includes other notable races like the Ayr Silver Cup and the Firth of Clyde Stakes. The latter Scotland’s only Group race for two-year-old’s. The meeting combines quality racing with a strong social element, attracting both serious racegoers and those drawn to its festival atmosphere.
As flat racing festivals go it would be fair to say that Ayr’s Western meeting isn’t at the level of York Ebor Festival or Glorious Goodwood. However, we do see decent sized fields and competitive racing offering punters with plenty of betting opportunities.
The Ayr going was described as good on Thursday and with three dry days forecast. Will the racecourse do some watering? I think it's odds on they will get the watering can out on Friday evening.
Jovial Jim Goldie
Scottish trainer Jim Goldie has his horses in excellent form with 5 winners from 28 runners 18% and if you had backed them all you would have made a £11.33 profit to a £1 level stake. Amongst his five winners were valuable handicaps wins at last week’s St Leger Festival.
It’s fair to say Goldie likes to have runners at Ayr’s Western Meeting. Since 2018 he’s sent 101 runners to the meeting gaining six winners with a further 15 placing. However, If you had backed them all you would have lost £60 to a £1 level stake.
All six of his winners were sent off single figure odds so if you’re following the Goldie runners over the next three you need to focus on those at the front end of the betting.
I have mentioned the Jim Goldie yard because the trainer has his horses in excellent form, and he has seven runners on Day 1 of Ayr’s Western Meeting.
Source: Racing Post.
Of the Goldie seven. I particularly like three of them Water Of Leith, Eternal Sunshine and Braes Of Doune. How many winners will Jim Goldie have on Thursday? I think he’ll end the day with at least one.
Lay or Play: New Beginnings
Unfortunately, we couldn’t end the ‘lay or play’trial with another successful lay. However, it’s been an excellent few weeks with a good profit bagged.
A reader asked me last week about staking plans and are there odds limits.
The best lay staking plan depends on your betting style, risk tolerance, and bankroll. Here are two popular lay staking plans you can use.
1. Level Stakes
Description: Bet the same amount on each lay regardless of odds.
Pros: Simple and easy to track. Limits risk.
Cons: Does not account for the varying risk levels between different odds.
Best For: Beginners or those seeking a consistent, low-risk approach.
2. Liability Staking
Description: Set a fixed liability for each lay, meaning the amount you are willing to lose remains constant. Your stake varies depending on the odds.
Pros: Ensures that you never risk more than a set amount, no matter how high the odds are.
Cons: Can result in high stakes when laying short-priced favourites.
Best For: Those who want controlled exposure on every lay.
Here are examples of each lay staking plan, assuming you’re laying a horse at odds of 5.0 and starting with a £1000 bankroll. We’ll work through a few winning and losing scenarios.
1. Level Stakes Example
Stake: £50 for each lay, regardless of odds or result.
Liability: £50 × (5.0 – 1) = £200 (what you lose if the horse wins).
Scenario 1 (Horse loses)
Profit: You win £50.
New Balance: £1000 + £50 = £1050.
Scenario 2 (Horse wins)
Loss: You lose £200.
New Balance: £1000 – £200 = £800.
2. Liability Staking Example
Liability: £100 (fixed).
Stake: £100 ÷ (5.0 – 1) = £25 (the amount you bet).
Scenario 1 (Horse loses)
Profit: £25.
New Balance: £1000 + £25 = £1025.
Scenario 2 (Horse wins)
Loss: £100 (the fixed liability).
New Balance: £1000 – £100 = £900.
Summary of Example Results:
Level Stakes: Simple and steady, with both profits and losses fixed.
Liability Staking: Controls risk by keeping liability constant, though stake size will vary.
There are other laying plans such as the ‘Lay Ladder' and ‘The Ratchet Plan', but both come with high risks.
Laying isn’t for everyone, but for those interested in my lay qualifiers, you can access them for just £6. As a bonus, you'll also receive qualifiers from three trainers whose runners I’ll be laying during Ayr’s Western Meeting.
Don’t miss out—join now and get the edge you need for a successful betting strategy. Click here to get started and enhance your lay betting experience today!
Good luck with your Thursday bets.
John