Hi all,
In today’s main piece, I’m recapping Saturday’s big races.
There couldn’t have been a bigger contrast between Ayr and Newbury. At Ayr’s Western Meeting, glorious weather meant good to firm ground and broken course records. Meanwhile, thunderstorms at Newbury flipped the going from good to soft on Thursday to heavy on Saturday. A true North/South weather divide.
Ayr
The old saying about a filly in form in autumn rang true in the Ayr Silver Cup. Alfa Kellenic, proved too well handicapped for her rivals in and with the benefit of a tailwind broke the course record. As one of the most improved horses in training, you can see why connections were keen to get her into the Gold Cup.
In the Firth of Clyde Stakes, William Haggas’s Sky Majesty gave him a second win in this Group 3 contest. The least experienced of 13 runners, Sky Majesty showed toughness to hold off Maw Law, winning by a neck. There was plenty to like about the way Sky Majesty stuck her neck down to win on just her second start. Maw Law couldn’t go with the early pace but finished strongly, while Irish challenger Grande Marques set a searching gallop and only faded in the final half-furlong. Sky Majesty, a filly with a speedily bred pedigree, looks a nice prospect and broke the juvenile course record.
Karl Burke’s Tricast in the Ayr Gold Cup
All 25 declared runners lined up for the Ayr Gold Cup, and the tailwind meant keeping up with the pace was key. That’s exactly what Lethal Levi did. He led down the stands side, set a fierce gallop, and sustained it to the line, winning by three lengths and breaking the course record that Alfa Kellenic had just set 70 minutes earlier.
Karl Burke not only saddled the winner but also took second and third with Silky Wilkie and Korker, completing an incredible tricast that paid £39,494.40. To have the 1-2-3 in one of the season’s most competitive sprint handicaps is a phenomenal achievement. The favourite, American Affair, couldn’t get competitive, proving one race too far for the progressive 4-year-old.
As I had anticipated, in Wednesday’s race preview being drawn low wasn’t ideal. Strike Red, drawn in stall 10, did the best among the lower numbers, finishing 10th. Overall, the handicapper should be pleased—just 2½ lengths separated 2nd to 13th.
Newbury
Over at Newbury, the heavy ground led to four key non-runners in the Mill Reef Stakes. However, Powerful Glory, the least exposed of the six runners, defied the testing ground to win. Runner-up Le Bellota challenged in the final furlong, but Powerful Glory dug in and won cosily. An expensive breeze-up purchase, he’s Richard Fahey’s best juvenile, giving the trainer his third Mill Reef Stakes win since 2013.
Powerful Glory, a good-moving colt, wouldn’t have liked Saturday’s ground, which makes the win even more impressive. He’s a high-class sprinting prospect for next season and one his trainer can look forward to.
Before wrapping up Newbury, I must mention Not So Sleepy. The 12-year-old showed he still has it, winning his second consecutive Autumn Cup. Despite his age, he showed a clear pair of heels to his younger rivals, securing his 12th career win (on both flat and hurdles). A quirky horse in the past, Not So Sleepy showed he’s still a real battler when the ground is in his favour. Saturday’s race marked his final swansong, and what a way to go out!
Monday Racing
Listowel’s ‘Harvest’ Festival got underway yesterday. This seven-day festival features a mix of flat and National Hunt racing. Established in 1858, the festival has grown into one of Ireland’s top festivals, drawing large crowds and good-quality horses each year.
One of the key highlights is the Kerry National, a prestigious handicap chase that takes place on the Wednesday of the festival.
The Listowel Harvest Festival is not just about racing but also about tradition and community, making it an important cultural event for the people of Kerry.
After Ayr’s Western Meeting and Newbury, I’m on a losing run of 14. Not great but then you realise it can be worse. If you place 2,000 bets with average odds of 5/1, you can expect a maximum losing streak of approximately 42 consecutive losses at some point. As ever a sobering thought for reader on a Monday morning.
The one silver lining among the clouds is that my lays are performing as expected and delivering consistent profits. If you'd like to join in and receive my lay qualifiers, you can get them here for just £6. Don't miss out on the chance to boost your betting bank.
Listowel
With €26,550 up for grabs in the John McGuire Handicap (Premier Handicap) (4:20) at Listowel, Weston presents an interesting each-way option. Although he may prefer a longer trip or softer ground, he showed some promise back in May on stable debut when finishing a close 4th of 8 at Navan over 1m 6f, just 1 ¼ lengths behind the winner. His latest effort at Galway is best overlooked, as he was badly hampered 3 furlongs out, effectively ending his chances. If this race provides a decent stamina test, Weston could bounce back for a yard that claimed this race with Lord Erskine in 2017, making him a contender worth considering.
4:20 – Weston.
Good luck with your Monday bets.
John