Hi all,
Inside today's main piece I'm looking at change in the famous Chester draw bias. Plus, I have one I like over jumps at Warwick.
If Carlsberg did horse racing podcasts, it would probably sound like The Barstewards Enquiry – Sunday Sermon.
The latest edition, which you can listen to here, is a must-listen, and one of the most entertaining 50 minutes in racing media. The lads pull no punches, especially when it comes to the sport and betting. And trust me, if you think I’m negative about the future of horse racing, you haven’t heard the Barstewards crew yet!
Change in Chester Draw Bias
One of the highlights of their latest show is their in-depth discussion on the draw bias at Chester, which starts around the 38-minute mark. They dive into how the advantage of stalls 1 and 2 has shifted significantly in recent years.
Inspired by the discussion, I took a deep dive into horseracebase to analyse stalls 1 & 2 at Chester.
2003-2015
During this period, you could have blindly backed horses drawn in stalls 1 & 2 and made a profit on both industry SP and Betfair SP. There was a clear draw bias favouring the low numbers.
2015 – 2024
However, things have changed dramatically. The once-reliable Chester bias has faded significantly.
The pronounced shift has continued in 2023 and 2024 and laying stalls 1& 2 has yielded a tidy profit.
The Barstewards Enquiry crew offer a plausible explanation for this shift, and it’s one that makes sense to me.
I wouldn’t totally dismiss the idea of trainers and jockeys adapting to the historical Chester draw bias. However, track maintenance, maybe over watering of the inner, has played a key role in the bias.
Future Winners
This week’s future winners come from Saturday at Ayr.
Revich – Richard Spencer
Revich was aiming for a third win in the opening mile handicap. Although the 8-year-old had been out of form, his 6th-place finish, 2¾ lengths behind Aragon Castle, was a step back in the right direction. He ran off a mark 7lb lower than his last win and may drop another pound after this. The ground was likely too quick for him, so keep him in mind when he returns to an easier surface.
Strike Red – Richard Fahey
Strike Red was a previous eyecatcher, and despite finishing 10th in the Ayr Gold Cup, he did best among those racing on the far side. Although he can handle quicker ground, he prefers softer conditions. He’s well-handicapped for a 6f sprint, and when all the cards fall right, he can get back in the winner’s circle.
Room Service – Kevin Ryan
I tipped Room Service for the Ayr Gold Cup for Victor Value subscribers. A winner at Pontefract on soft ground on his previous start. Room Service found things happening to quick on the good-to-firm surface and could only finish 11th. He was doing his best work late on and should do better either back on softer ground or stepping up to 7f. He has an entry in the Challenge Cup Handicap (7f) at Ascot on October 5th, where he’s 16/1 with William Hill.
Billyjoh – Michael Appleby
Billyjoh, an unlucky third in the Goodwood Stewards Cup, rebounded from a poor York run to finish 12th in the Ayr Gold Cup. He made progress towards the final furlong but didn’t get the gaps when he needed them. It’s worth noting he’s been kept away from soft ground and after a busy 12 months, he may be ready for short break. A three time winner on the all-weather it’s the artificial surfaces that could offer him the best opportunity of success in the short term.
Tuesday Racing
It’s day three of the Listowel Harvest Festival, and the spotlight is on Ryan Moore. He’ll have his first rides at the Kerry track, taking four mounts for Aidan O’Brien. Ryan will aim for at least one winner. The feature race is the Listed Edmund & Josie Whelan Memorial Listowel Stakes (3:45). Ryan rides Mundi for O’Brien, but Jessica Harrington, last year’s winning trainer, has a strong contender in Curvature. Curvature finished a ¾ length third in this race last year before winning a Listed event at Naas. She’ll be a big threat, especially if the ground turns soft, which suits her.
Warwick
Jump racing returns to Warwick, and I’ve got my eye on Castle Robin in the 3m 1½f handicap chase (3:30). He struggled last season but returns from wind surgery for a trainer in form, with 2 winners from his last 6 runners. Castle Robin handles layoffs well, with 2 wins and 3 places from 5 starts when returning from a 75+ day layoff. The recent rain has softened the ground to good-to-soft, which is perfect for him—he’s won four times on similar ground. We now have one non-runner so a generally available 9/2 are about right so there's no room for our old freind value.
3:30 – Castle Robin.
Good luck with your Tuesday bets.
John