Newmarket Testing Ground

Hi all,

This afternoon at Newmarket’s Cambridgeshire Meeting, the Rockfel Stakes (3:00) and Joel Stakes (3:35), both Group 2 contests, take centre stage. You can catch those races, along with two others, live on ITV.

Elsewhere, there’s exciting action at Listowel with a Listed Handicap Hurdle (2:40) offering €59,000 to the winner. Over at Worcester, the Dragonbet Fixed Brush Hurdle Series Final Novices' Handicap Hurdle (3:45) features 15 runners, with £36,421 up for grabs. Both Willie Mullins and Emmet Mullins have entries. The big race action continues into the evening at Dundalk, where the Listed Diamond Stakes (7:15) is the highlight.

Newmarket

As predicted, the rain arrived at Newmarket on Thursday, and the going quickly shifted to soft ground, with conditions becoming quite testing by the end of racing. Up to another 10mm is expected on Friday, and even with a dry and sunny Saturday, it’s hard to imagine the ground being any quicker than soft for Cambridgeshire Day.

If you watched Thursday’s racing, you’ll have noticed that horses getting to the near side rail were tough to beat. I had a couple of close seconds with horses making their moves away from the stands rail while the winners came down the near side. It seemed like it was going to be one of those days, but fortunately, I found the winner (Eagles Reign) of the big Listowel Handicap Hurdle for Victor Value subscribers. My recent poor run seems to be turning around, so if you want to join me, you can get my big race previews and selections for the next two weeks for just £5 here.

1:50 – Al Basti Equiworld, Dubai British EBF Rosemary Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies & Mares) – 1m

I’m leaning towards Rolica here. She won a maiden (7f) at Newmarket in April and finished sixth in the 1,000 Guineas. After a dip in form at Chantilly, she bounced back when fifth in a Group 3 at Sandown last month. A stronger pace would have suited her then, and if she gets it here, she’ll be in with a chance, especially with William Buick back in the saddle. Looks to have a decent chance if, and it's a big if, she handles the testing ground.

2:25 – Princess Royal Al Basti Equiworld, Dubai Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) – 1m 4f

Time Lock, last year’s winner, ran to form when third behind Giavellotto in the Group 2 Princess of Wales Stakes on the other track 78 days ago. She’s consistent at this level, but soft ground is a concern.

Mistral Star won the Listed Aphrodite Stakes over 1m 4f two starts back and followed that with a solid fourth in the Yorkshire Oaks. Slightly easier ground shouldn’t be a problem for her, and she should run well again.

Place Of Safety has improved with each run, finishing second in a Listed race at Newmarket over this trip last time out. She’ll need to step up again, but her yard has won this race three times in the last 10 years, so she’s worth considering.

Comic Book showed improvement last time at Longchamp, finishing a close fifth despite not the best of runs. She looks progressive and shouldn’t mind the drop back to 1m 4f. Her yard also won this race in 2021.

Sea Of Roses benefited from the run of the race when she won a Windsor Listed race on soft ground last time. She clearly handles these conditions well, which will be a plus here. While she may need some of her rivals to underperform on this surface, if they do, she’s in with a chance.

Sinology impressed when winning a Newbury maiden over 1m 2f back in April but looked like she needed further when finishing 6th in the Musidora Stakes at York. Her return in July saw her last of six in a Group 2 at Longchamp. Back from another break, her dam thrived on soft ground, which gives her a squeak on testing ground.

And finally….

With the weather conditions and the likelihood of non-runners, Friday’s Newmarket card may not offer the big punting opportunity it could have been on quicker ground. Testing ground often makes for unpredictable outcomes. It’s worth treading cautiously, as the field sizes and conditions could significantly impact how the races unfold.

It’s probably a day for selective betting or waiting until Saturday, when the ground might stabilize a bit more.

Good luck with your Friday bets!

Cheers,

John