Hi all,
Inside today's main piece I'm looking ahead to Saturday's big betting race the bet365 Cambridgeshire Handicap.
It’s an exciting day of Group 1 action at Newmarket, with the Cheveley Park Stakes (2:25) and Middle Park Stakes (3:00) headlining the card . The big betting race of the day is the bet365 Cambridgeshire Handicap (3:40), which has attracted a maximum field of 35 runners.
Over at the Curragh, there are some fascinating juvenile races, including the Group 2 Beresford Stakes (2:35), televised on ITV, and the Goffs Million (3:45), boasting a massive €1 million in guaranteed prize money.
The excitement continues into Sunday with the Friends Of The Curragh Irish Cesarewitch, where the winner will take home an incredible €324,000.
Newmarket Weather/Going Update:
Friday saw around 34mm of rain, leading to many non-runners. However, sunshine and a strong tailwind helped improve conditions, with Newmarket’s chalky soil ensuring good drainage. With dry weather forecast over the next 24 hours, the ground should dry out even further.
Recent Wins:
I mentioned in yesterday’s column that my recent poor run had come to an end in the big handicap hurdle at Listowel. Well, the winning run continued as I tipped up Frankendael (9/1) in the Listed Handicap Hurdle at the Irish venue on Friday. Nice to get a couple of NH winners with winter jumps campaign about to get underway in earnest next month.
My Saturday preview for Victor Value subscribers was posted on Friday afternoon but I’m holding off my final selections until Saturday morning. If you want my Victor Value previews and selections for the next two weeks for just £5 you can get them here.
bet365 Cambridgeshire Handicap
I initially rethought my stance on the Cambridgeshire Handicap due to the rain and draw. But after Friday’s action, I’ve reconsidered it again. As noted in Wednesday’s column, low-drawn horses traditionally have a poor record in this race. However, if the ground stays soft, they might do better than expected.
If you fancy Balmacara (1) or Liberty Lane (4), don’t write them off just yet!
I liked the unexposed This Songisforyou earlier in the week at double-figure odds, but the soft ground has put me off. I’m still not sold on Roi De France handling soft conditions. If he wins, I’ll take it on the chin.
Of the higher draws, Godwinson (27) and Norwalk Havoc (26) have solid claims. Dual Identity (30), unlucky with the draw in 2022, could place. But his 29 career starts raise concerns as you can see from the trends.
A lively outsider at big odds is Navagio, third in the Lincoln Handicap. If he replicates that performance and gets soft ground, he could be in the mix. I'll have a couple of darts at the race but whether it's two or three I'm not sure. However, a field of 35 runners means you can justify three or even four picks to put the odds in your favour.
Group 1 Contests
Before I finish, here are a few quick thoughts on the two Newmarket Group 1 contests.
In the Juddmonte Middle Park Stakes (3:00), Defence Minister could get into the places. But on soft ground, I can’t see past Whistlejacket who's the the one to beat.
The Juddmonte Cheveley Park Stakes (2:25) looks more interesting. Unbeaten Babouche hasn’t raced on worse than good, but her full sister and dam handled soft ground well. At 2/1, she could be great value. Her main market rival, Lake Victoria, is also unbeaten, and her stamina over 7f will be an asset. Both fillies are last time out Group 1 winners and set a high form standard.
The two French challengers, Daylight and Rayevka, will like the soft ground. There was money for Daylight on Friday, and Rayevka has been supplemented for the race. Who knows how good she could be? It should be ain imformative race.
Good luck with your Saturday bets!
Cheers,
John